Stock Analysis on Net

Pioneer Natural Resources Co. (NYSE:PXD)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.69% per annum.
  • PXD price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $260.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 281.11% per annum.
  • PXD price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
  • The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PXD price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: January 31, 2022
End date: March 7, 2024

a = 5.5841

b = -0.0001

s = 0.0765

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -3.69%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0765) – 1
= 35.79%

January 31, 2022 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y717)
= Exp(a + b × X717 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5841 + -0.0001 × 1,040 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(5.6299)
= $278.64

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y717)
= Exp(a + b × X717 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5841 + -0.0001 × 1,040 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(5.3240)
= $205.21

March 7, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5841 + -0.0001 × 1,806 + 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(5.5511)
= $257.51

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,806 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5841 + -0.0001 × 1,806 – 2 × 0.0765)
= Exp(5.2451)
= $189.64

Description

  • The primary trend is decreasing.
  • The decline rate of the primary trend is 3.69% per annum.
  • PXD price at the close of March 27, 2024 was $260.00 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.02 (1.17%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: February 23, 2024
End date: March 27, 2024

a = -1.1329

b = 0.0037

s = 0.0068

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0037) – 1
= 281.11%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0068) – 1
= 2.77%

February 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1329 + 0.0037 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(5.4531)
= $233.47

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,235)
= Exp(a + b × X1,235 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1329 + 0.0037 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(5.4258)
= $227.19

March 27, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1329 + 0.0037 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(5.5740)
= $263.49

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-1.1329 + 0.0037 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0068)
= Exp(5.5467)
= $256.40

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 281.11% per annum.
  • PXD price at the close of March 27, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
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