Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.66% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $158.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.17 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.83% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.53 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: July 21, 2026
a = 5.1239
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.13%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 200 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.1246)
= $168.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 200 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.9496)
= $141.11
July 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 368 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.0517)
= $156.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 368 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.8766)
= $131.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.66% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $158.30 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $6.17 (4.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 4.1299
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 135.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.43%
June 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1299 + 0.0024 × 332 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.9644)
= $143.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1299 + 0.0024 × 332 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(4.8562)
= $128.54
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1299 + 0.0024 × 427 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.1877)
= $179.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1299 + 0.0024 × 427 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.0795)
= $160.69
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.83% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.53 (2.18%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.