Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.44% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $138.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.02% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 5.4205
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0351
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -31.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0351) – 1
= 15.09%
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4205 + -0.0010 × 331 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.1484)
= $172.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y227)
= Exp(a + b × X227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4205 + -0.0010 × 331 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.0079)
= $149.59
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 432 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4205 + -0.0010 × 432 + 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(5.0439)
= $155.08
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 432 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4205 + -0.0010 × 432 – 2 × 0.0351)
= Exp(4.9034)
= $134.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 31.44% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $138.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 7.5347
b = -0.0061
s = 0.0129
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0061) – 1
= -89.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0129) – 1
= 5.29%
June 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5347 + -0.0061 × 413 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(5.0610)
= $157.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 413 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5347 + -0.0061 × 413 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(5.0095)
= $149.83
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 432 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5347 + -0.0061 × 432 + 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.9460)
= $140.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 432 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5347 + -0.0061 × 432 – 2 × 0.0129)
= Exp(4.8945)
= $133.55
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 89.02% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.