Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.19% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of July 22, 2026 was $154.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.95 (4.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 533.94% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of July 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 12, 2026
End date: July 16, 2026
a = 5.4595
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0354
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0354) – 1
= 15.19%
March 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4595 + -0.0011 × 330 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.1519)
= $172.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4595 + -0.0011 × 330 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.0105)
= $149.98
July 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4595 + -0.0011 × 456 + 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(5.0075)
= $149.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 456 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4595 + -0.0011 × 456 – 2 × 0.0354)
= Exp(4.8661)
= $129.81
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.19% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of July 22, 2026 was $154.45 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.95 (4.00%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 29, 2026
End date: July 22, 2026
a = 2.6792
b = 0.0051
s = 0.0141
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0051) – 1
= 533.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0141) – 1
= 5.79%
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6792 + 0.0051 × 439 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.9286)
= $138.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6792 + 0.0051 × 439 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.8723)
= $130.62
July 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6792 + 0.0051 × 462 + 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(5.0450)
= $155.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6792 + 0.0051 × 462 – 2 × 0.0141)
= Exp(4.9887)
= $146.74
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 533.94% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of July 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.