Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.66% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of October 21, 2026 was $178.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.93 (18.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.35% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of October 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of XOM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: July 21, 2026
a = 5.1239
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.13%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 200 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.1246)
= $168.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 200 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.9496)
= $141.11
July 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 368 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.0517)
= $156.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 368 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1239 + -0.0004 × 368 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.8766)
= $131.19
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 14.66% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of October 21, 2026 was $178.09 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $27.93 (18.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 15, 2026
End date: October 21, 2026
a = 4.2933
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0306
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 100.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0306) – 1
= 13.03%
June 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2933 + 0.0019 × 332 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.9866)
= $146.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y228)
= Exp(a + b × X228 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 332 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2933 + 0.0019 × 332 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(4.8641)
= $129.56
October 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 460 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2933 + 0.0019 × 460 + 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.2303)
= $186.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 460 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2933 + 0.0019 × 460 – 2 × 0.0306)
= Exp(5.1078)
= $165.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 100.35% per annum.
- XOM price at the close of October 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.