Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 184.52% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $211.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.04 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.94% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.87 (0.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CVX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 17, 2026
a = 4.1680
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0246
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 184.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0246) – 1
= 10.33%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 331 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.1654)
= $175.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 331 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 331 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.0671)
= $158.72
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 423 + 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.4290)
= $227.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y292)
= Exp(a + b × X292 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1680 + 0.0029 × 423 – 2 × 0.0246)
= Exp(5.3307)
= $206.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 184.52% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $211.98 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $8.04 (3.65%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 5.8062
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0143
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0143) – 1
= 5.90%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8062 + -0.0011 × 407 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.3892)
= $219.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 407 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8062 + -0.0011 × 407 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.3319)
= $206.84
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8062 + -0.0011 × 443 + 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.3498)
= $210.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8062 + -0.0011 × 443 – 2 × 0.0143)
= Exp(5.2925)
= $198.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 32.94% per annum.
- CVX price at the close of October 9, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.87 (0.89%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.