Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.19% per annum.
- COP price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $109.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.44% per annum.
- COP price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 19, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 5.3183
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0312
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0312) – 1
= 13.31%
March 19, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3183 + -0.0014 × 339 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.9188)
= $136.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y233)
= Exp(a + b × X233 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3183 + -0.0014 × 339 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.7939)
= $120.77
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3183 + -0.0014 × 434 + 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.7894)
= $120.23
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3183 + -0.0014 × 434 – 2 × 0.0312)
= Exp(4.6644)
= $106.10
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.19% per annum.
- COP price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $109.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 3, 2026
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 7.0634
b = -0.0055
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0055) – 1
= -86.44%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.14%
June 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0634 + -0.0055 × 415 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.8260)
= $124.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y285)
= Exp(a + b × X285 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0634 + -0.0055 × 415 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.7570)
= $116.40
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0634 + -0.0055 × 434 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.7220)
= $112.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.0634 + -0.0055 × 434 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.6530)
= $104.90
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 86.44% per annum.
- COP price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.