Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.11% per annum.
- COP price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $129.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.00 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.66% per annum.
- COP price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 6.2524
b = -0.0032
s = 0.0208
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0032) – 1
= -69.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0208) – 1
= 8.67%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2524 + -0.0032 × 410 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.9744)
= $144.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 410 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2524 + -0.0032 × 410 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.8912)
= $133.12
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2524 + -0.0032 × 441 + 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.8746)
= $130.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2524 + -0.0032 × 441 – 2 × 0.0208)
= Exp(4.7915)
= $120.48
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 69.11% per annum.
- COP price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $129.84 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.00 (0.78%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 4.4989
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0123
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.66%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0123) – 1
= 5.06%
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4989 + 0.0008 × 430 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.8654)
= $129.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4989 + 0.0008 × 430 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.8161)
= $123.48
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4989 + 0.0008 × 446 + 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.8782)
= $131.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4989 + 0.0008 × 446 – 2 × 0.0123)
= Exp(4.8288)
= $125.06
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.66% per annum.
- COP price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.