Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.56% per annum.
- COP price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $116.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.21 (3.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.61% per annum.
- COP price at the close of August 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2026
End date: July 16, 2026
a = 5.3346
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0358
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -40.56%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0358) – 1
= 15.39%
March 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3346 + -0.0014 × 333 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.9315)
= $138.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3346 + -0.0014 × 333 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.7883)
= $120.10
July 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3346 + -0.0014 × 458 + 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.7533)
= $115.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y314)
= Exp(a + b × X314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3346 + -0.0014 × 458 – 2 × 0.0358)
= Exp(4.6102)
= $100.50
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 40.56% per annum.
- COP price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $116.76 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.21 (3.74%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: August 4, 2026
a = 2.9738
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0221
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 303.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0221) – 1
= 9.25%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9738 + 0.0038 × 436 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.6847)
= $108.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y299)
= Exp(a + b × X299 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9738 + 0.0038 × 436 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.5962)
= $99.11
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9738 + 0.0038 × 477 + 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.8414)
= $126.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9738 + 0.0038 × 477 – 2 × 0.0221)
= Exp(4.7530)
= $115.93
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 303.61% per annum.
- COP price at the close of August 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.06 (0.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.