Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 302.94% per annum.
- COP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $127.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.41 (7.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.30% per annum.
- COP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.38 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: September 15, 2026
a = 3.3318
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0234
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 302.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0234) – 1
= 9.80%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 341 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3318 + 0.0038 × 341 + 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(4.6805)
= $107.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y234)
= Exp(a + b × X234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 341 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3318 + 0.0038 × 341 – 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(4.5870)
= $98.20
September 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3318 + 0.0038 × 424 + 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(4.9974)
= $148.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.3318 + 0.0038 × 424 – 2 × 0.0234)
= Exp(4.9039)
= $134.82
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 302.94% per annum.
- COP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $127.53 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $10.41 (7.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 4.6502
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0237
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.30%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0237) – 1
= 9.93%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6502 + 0.0006 × 396 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.9335)
= $138.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6502 + 0.0006 × 396 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.8388)
= $126.32
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6502 + 0.0006 × 430 + 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.9538)
= $141.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.6502 + 0.0006 × 430 – 2 × 0.0237)
= Exp(4.8591)
= $128.91
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.30% per annum.
- COP price at the close of September 21, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $1.38 (1.07%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.