Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 249.35% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $135.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.26 (13.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 137.15% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of COP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2026
End date: September 15, 2026
a = 3.4860
b = 0.0034
s = 0.0297
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0034) – 1
= 249.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0297) – 1
= 12.62%
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4860 + 0.0034 × 333 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.6867)
= $108.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4860 + 0.0034 × 333 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.5678)
= $96.34
September 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4860 + 0.0034 × 424 + 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.9986)
= $148.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4860 + 0.0034 × 424 – 2 × 0.0297)
= Exp(4.8797)
= $131.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 249.35% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $135.46 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $21.26 (13.57%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 16, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 3.8757
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0448
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 137.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0448) – 1
= 19.64%
June 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + 0.0024 × 333 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.7532)
= $115.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y229)
= Exp(a + b × X229 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 333 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + 0.0024 × 333 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.5738)
= $96.91
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + 0.0024 × 475 + 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(5.0891)
= $162.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + 0.0024 × 475 – 2 × 0.0448)
= Exp(4.9098)
= $135.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 137.15% per annum.
- COP price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.15 (0.11%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.