Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
ConocoPhillips, free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 14.37% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFF0 | 9,292 | ||
| 1 | FCFF1 | 10,132 | = 9,292 × (1 + 9.04%) | 8,858 |
| 2 | FCFF2 | 11,034 | = 10,132 × (1 + 8.90%) | 8,435 |
| 3 | FCFF3 | 12,002 | = 11,034 × (1 + 8.77%) | 8,022 |
| 4 | FCFF4 | 13,038 | = 12,002 × (1 + 8.64%) | 7,620 |
| 5 | FCFF5 | 14,147 | = 13,038 × (1 + 8.51%) | 7,229 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 261,634 | = 14,147 × (1 + 8.51%) ÷ (14.37% – 8.51%) | 133,683 |
| Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips capital | 173,846 | |||
| Less: Debt, including finance leases (fair value) | 19,750 | |||
| Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips common stock | 154,096 | |||
| Intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips common stock (per share) | $130.99 | |||
| Current share price | $129.28 | |||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
ConocoPhillips, cost of capital
| Value1 | Weight | Required rate of return2 | Calculation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (fair value) | 152,086 | 0.89 | 15.76% | |
| Debt, including finance leases (fair value) | 19,750 | 0.11 | 3.69% | = 5.16% × (1 – 28.44%) |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 1,176,408,368 × $129.28
= $152,086,073,815.04
Debt, including finance leases (fair value). See details »
2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »
Required rate of return on debt. See details »
Required rate of return on debt is after tax.
Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (32.70% + 33.80% + 36.40% + 15.50% + 23.80%) ÷ 5
= 28.44%
WACC = 14.37%
FCFF Growth Rate (g)
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
ConocoPhillips, PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
2023 Calculations
2 Interest and debt expense, after tax = Interest and debt expense × (1 – EITR)
= 780 × (1 – 32.70%)
= 525
3 EBIT(1 – EITR)
= Net income (loss) attributable to ConocoPhillips + Interest and debt expense, after tax
= 10,957 + 525
= 11,482
4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [11,482 – 5,245] ÷ 11,482
= 0.54
5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 11,482 ÷ 68,216
= 16.83%
6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.64 × 14.18%
= 9.04%
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (171,836 × 14.37% – 9,292) ÷ (171,836 + 9,292)
= 8.51%
where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of ConocoPhillips debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year ConocoPhillips free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of ConocoPhillips capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
ConocoPhillips, H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 9.04% |
| 2 | g2 | 8.90% |
| 3 | g3 | 8.77% |
| 4 | g4 | 8.64% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 8.51% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.04% + (8.51% – 9.04%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 8.90%
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.04% + (8.51% – 9.04%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 8.77%
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 9.04% + (8.51% – 9.04%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 8.64%