Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 565.61% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of May 19, 2025 was $319.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (1.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 400.96% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of May 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ACN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 17, 2025
End date: May 15, 2025
a = -3.6805
b = 0.0052
s = 0.0103
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0052) – 1
= 565.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0103) – 1
= 4.19%
April 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6805 + 0.0052 × 1,793 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.6515)
= $284.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,234)
= Exp(a + b × X1,234 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,793 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6805 + 0.0052 × 1,793 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.6104)
= $273.26
May 15, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6805 + 0.0052 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.7969)
= $329.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-3.6805 + 0.0052 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.0103)
= Exp(5.7558)
= $316.03
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 565.61% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of May 19, 2025 was $319.39 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.27 (1.01%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 24, 2025
End date: May 19, 2025
a = -2.2716
b = 0.0044
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 400.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.57%
April 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2716 + 0.0044 × 1,800 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.6972)
= $298.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,238)
= Exp(a + b × X1,238 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2716 + 0.0044 × 1,800 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.6525)
= $285.00
May 19, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2716 + 0.0044 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.8075)
= $332.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-2.2716 + 0.0044 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(5.7628)
= $318.25
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 400.96% per annum.
- ACN price at the close of May 19, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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