Economic Value Added (EVA)
EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.
Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.
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- Balance Sheet: Liabilities and Stockholders’ Equity
- Analysis of Profitability Ratios
- Analysis of Solvency Ratios
- Analysis of Short-term (Operating) Activity Ratios
- Enterprise Value to EBITDA (EV/EBITDA)
- Selected Financial Data since 2018
- Return on Assets (ROA) since 2018
- Current Ratio since 2018
- Total Asset Turnover since 2018
- Aggregate Accruals
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Economic Profit
Moderna Inc., economic profit calculation
US$ in millions
| 12 months ended: | Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1 | ||||||
| Cost of capital2 | ||||||
| Invested capital3 | ||||||
| Economic profit4 | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 NOPAT. See details »
2 Cost of capital. See details »
3 Invested capital. See details »
4 2023 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= – × =
- Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
- The NOPAT shows a marked fluctuation over the years. Starting with a negative value in 2019 (-605 million USD), it experienced a considerable increase in 2020 (3,091 million USD), peaking in 2021 at 14,737 million USD. However, this was followed by a sharp decline in 2022 to 3,520 million USD and a reversal to negative territory in 2023 (-5,414 million USD). This pattern suggests significant volatility in operational profitability, with peak performance in 2021 and a deteriorating trend thereafter.
- Cost of Capital
- The cost of capital remains relatively stable across the period, with a slight downward trend. It started at 21.29% in 2019, and gradually decreased to 20.92% by 2023. This minor reduction indicates a slightly lower required return on invested capital over time, possibly reflecting changes in market conditions or risk profile.
- Invested Capital
- Invested capital exhibits significant changes, starting from 481 million USD in 2019, increasing sharply to 4,183 million USD in 2020 and peaking at 10,693 million USD in 2021. Subsequently, it declined to 7,126 million USD in 2022 and further to 5,263 million USD in 2023. This suggests a period of rapid capital investment followed by a notable divestment or depletion of capital after 2021.
- Economic Profit
- Economic profit follows a pattern similar to NOPAT but amplified in magnitude. Starting with a negative economic profit of -708 million USD in 2019, it improved substantially to 2,195 million USD in 2020 and then surged to a peak of 12,472 million USD in 2021. The value then dropped sharply to 2,019 million USD in 2022 and declined further into negative territory (-6,515 million USD) in 2023. This indicates that while the company generated significant value above its cost of capital in 2020 and 2021, it faced considerable value destruction in 2019 and 2023, with a substantial loss of economic profit in the latest period analyzed.
Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)
Moderna Inc., NOPAT calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »
2 Addition of increase (decrease) in wholesalers chargebacks, discounts and fees.
3 Addition of increase (decrease) in deferred revenue.
4 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net income (loss).
5 2023 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =
6 2023 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
7 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net income (loss).
8 2023 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =
9 Elimination of after taxes investment income.
The financial data reveals significant fluctuations in the company's profitability over the five-year period. The net income (loss) experienced a substantial improvement from 2019 to 2021, transitioning from negative figures in 2019 and 2020 to a strong positive net income in 2021. This peak was followed by a decline in 2022 and a return to negative net income in 2023.
Similarly, the net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) reflects this volatility. In 2019, the NOPAT was negative but shifted to a positive value in 2020, with a remarkable increase reaching its highest point in 2021. After peaking, there was a steep decline in 2022 and further deterioration in 2023, resulting in negative NOPAT.
- Net Income (Loss) Trend
- From a loss of $514 million in 2019 worsening to a loss of $747 million in 2020, the company reversed its fortunes dramatically in 2021, generating a net income of $12,202 million. This profit decreased to $8,362 million in 2022 and swung back to a loss of $4,714 million in 2023.
- Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) Trend
- Consistent with net income, NOPAT started negative at -$605 million in 2019, rose sharply to $3,091 million in 2020, then peaked at $14,737 million in 2021. The metric then declined to $3,520 million in 2022 and further dropped to -$5,414 million by 2023, displaying high volatility and indicating challenges in operational profitability towards the end of the period.
- Overall Insight
- The data demonstrates a peak in financial performance in 2021, followed by notable declines in subsequent years. The sharp swings between profit and loss suggest potential external or internal factors influencing operational efficiency and market conditions. The negative results in 2023 highlight recent financial challenges and may warrant further investigation into cost structures, revenue streams, or market dynamics.
Cash Operating Taxes
Moderna Inc., cash operating taxes calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
The financial data exhibits notable fluctuations in the provision for income taxes as well as cash operating taxes over the five-year period.
- Provision for (benefit from) income taxes
-
There is a clear upward trend from 2019 through 2022, starting with a benefit of US$ -1 million in 2019, rising to a modest provision of US$ 3 million in 2020, and then surging significantly to US$ 1,083 million in 2021 and further to US$ 1,213 million in 2022. However, in 2023, the provision decreased to US$ 772 million, indicating a partial reversal from the previous two years but still remaining at a substantially higher level than in 2019 and 2020.
- Cash operating taxes
-
The cash operating taxes similarly show variability with a negative outflow of US$ -4 million in 2019, followed by a small positive figure of US$ 1 million in 2020. Thereafter, there is a sharp increase to US$ 1,381 million in 2021 and US$ 1,763 million in 2022, mirroring the upward trend seen in the provision for income taxes. Notably, in 2023 the cash operating taxes turn negative again at US$ -191 million, which contrasts starkly with the two previous years and suggests unusual tax-related cash flows or adjustments.
Overall, both provisions for income taxes and cash operating taxes remain low in the initial years before escalating steeply during 2021 and 2022, likely reflecting increased taxable income or changes in tax rates or rules during that period. The drop in 2023 for both measures, especially the negative cash operating taxes, may warrant further investigation as it suggests atypical tax events or benefits impacting cash flows.
Invested Capital
Moderna Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.
2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »
3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.
4 Addition of deferred revenue.
5 Addition of equity equivalents to stockholders’ equity.
6 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.
7 Subtraction of construction in progress.
8 Subtraction of marketable securities.
The financial data over the five-year period exhibit notable fluctuations in the key metrics of total reported debt and leases, stockholders' equity, and invested capital.
- Total Reported Debt & Leases
- The total reported debt and leases increased consistently each year from 2019 to 2023. Starting at US$136 million in 2019, it rose sharply to US$238 million in 2020 and then accelerated to US$916 million in 2021. The upward trend continued but at a moderated pace with values reaching US$1,200 million in 2022 and US$1,243 million in 2023. This pattern suggests a notable increase in leverage, especially between 2019 and 2021, followed by a stabilization at a higher debt level.
- Stockholders’ Equity
- Stockholders’ equity showed a dramatic rise in 2021 after more moderate growth in the early years. Beginning at US$1,175 million in 2019, the equity more than doubled to US$2,561 million in 2020. It then surged to US$14,145 million in 2021 and continued to grow to US$19,123 million in 2022. However, in 2023, there was a significant decline to US$13,854 million. This peak followed by contraction indicates volatility in the company’s net assets, potentially reflecting market valuation changes or dividend payments.
- Invested Capital
- Invested capital experienced substantial volatility, showing an initial increase from US$481 million in 2019 to a peak of US$10,693 million in 2021. Following this peak, there was a sharp decline to US$7,126 million in 2022 and a further decrease to US$5,263 million in 2023. The sharp rise and subsequent decline suggest significant shifts in the company’s invested resources, which may be due to asset acquisitions or disposals, changes in working capital, or shifts in capital allocation strategies.
Overall, the data reveal a period of significant expansion in both debt and equity financing up to 2021 or 2022, followed by signs of retraction or adjustment in 2023. The increase in leverage alongside the rise in equity points to aggressive growth or investment phases, while the subsequent declines in equity and invested capital indicate possible strategic repositioning or market-related adjustments.
Cost of Capital
Moderna Inc., cost of capital calculations
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Financing lease liabilities3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Financing lease liabilities3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Financing lease liabilities3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Financing lease liabilities3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
| Capital (fair value)1 | Weights | Cost of capital | |||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity2 | ÷ | = | × | = | |||||||||
| Financing lease liabilities3 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Operating lease liability4 | ÷ | = | × | × (1 – 21.00%) | = | ||||||||
| Total: | |||||||||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
2 Equity. See details »
3 Financing lease liabilities. See details »
4 Operating lease liability. See details »
Economic Spread Ratio
Moderna Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Invested capital2 | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic spread ratio3 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4 | ||||||
| AbbVie Inc. | ||||||
| Amgen Inc. | ||||||
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | ||||||
| Danaher Corp. | ||||||
| Eli Lilly & Co. | ||||||
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | ||||||
| Johnson & Johnson | ||||||
| Merck & Co. Inc. | ||||||
| Pfizer Inc. | ||||||
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ||||||
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | ||||||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 Invested capital. See details »
3 2023 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =
4 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The financial data reveal significant fluctuations in economic profit, invested capital, and the economic spread ratio over the five-year period under review.
- Economic Profit
- Economic profit displayed a highly volatile pattern. It started with a substantial loss of 708 million USD in 2019, followed by a remarkable recovery and growth reaching a peak of 12,472 million USD in 2021. In 2022, the figure sharply declined to 2,019 million USD and further deteriorated to a negative value of -6,515 million USD in 2023. This indicates considerable variability in the company’s ability to generate returns exceeding its cost of capital within the timeframe.
- Invested Capital
- The invested capital saw a steep increase from 481 million USD in 2019 to a peak of 10,693 million USD in 2021. After 2021, there was a notable reduction to 7,126 million USD in 2022 and further declined to 5,263 million USD by 2023. This trend reflects a build-up of capital investment leading up to 2021, followed by a period of capital contraction or asset divestment in subsequent years.
- Economic Spread Ratio
- The economic spread ratio followed a trend consistent with economic profit developments. It began with a significant negative spread of -147.16% in 2019, then improved dramatically to positive spreads of 52.47% and 116.64% in 2020 and 2021 respectively, suggesting efficient use of capital and value creation during this period. However, the ratio sharply reduced to 28.33% in 2022 and further plunged into negative territory at -123.78% in 2023, indicating a reversal in value creation and possibly elevated costs or diminished returns on capital.
In summary, the company's financial performance, as measured by economic profit and economic spread ratio, peaked significantly in 2021 alongside the highest invested capital. Thereafter, both profitability and capital investment declined sharply by 2023, with economic profit turning negative and economic spread ratio reflecting negative returns. These patterns suggest a period of rapid expansion followed by contraction or operational challenges impacting profitability and efficient capital use in the latter years.
Economic Profit Margin
Moderna Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Economic profit1 | ||||||
| Net product sales | ||||||
| Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue | ||||||
| Adjusted net product sales | ||||||
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| Economic profit margin2 | ||||||
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3 | ||||||
| AbbVie Inc. | ||||||
| Amgen Inc. | ||||||
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | ||||||
| Danaher Corp. | ||||||
| Eli Lilly & Co. | ||||||
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | ||||||
| Johnson & Johnson | ||||||
| Merck & Co. Inc. | ||||||
| Pfizer Inc. | ||||||
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ||||||
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | ||||||
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | ||||||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Economic profit. See details »
2 2023 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Adjusted net product sales
= 100 × ÷ =
3 Click competitor name to see calculations.
- Economic Profit
- The company's economic profit exhibited significant volatility over the analyzed period. It started with a negative value of -708 million USD in 2019, then sharply increased to a positive 2,195 million USD in 2020. This positive trend continued strongly into 2021, reaching a peak of 12,472 million USD. However, in 2022, economic profit contracted substantially to 2,019 million USD and turned negative again in 2023 with a value of -6,515 million USD, indicating a reversal in profitability.
- Adjusted Net Product Sales
- Adjusted net product sales showed a remarkable growth trajectory from negative 72 million USD in 2019 to 4,042 million USD in 2020. This upward pace accelerated considerably in 2021, reaching 20,499 million USD. Nevertheless, sales declined in the following years, dropping to 14,278 million USD in 2022 and further down to 4,611 million USD in 2023. The decline in the last two years suggests a significant decrease in revenue generation from products.
- Economic Profit Margin
- The economic profit margin data reveal a substantial improvement from 2020 to 2021, increasing from 54.3% to a peak of 60.84%. This indicates improved profitability relative to sales during these years. However, margin plunged dramatically to 14.14% in 2022 and further deteriorated to -141.29% in 2023, reflecting negative profitability relative to sales and emphasizing operational or market challenges affecting the company in the latter years.