Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

The financial data reveals significant fluctuations in key performance metrics over the five-year period ending in 2023.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

The NOPAT displayed a marked shift from a negative value of -$605 million in 2019 to a strong positive peak of $14,737 million in 2021. However, the following years show a sharp decline, with NOPAT dropping to $3,520 million in 2022 and turning negative again to -$5,414 million in 2023. This pattern indicates a period of substantial profitability followed by a severe erosion of operating profit.

Cost of Capital

The cost of capital remained relatively stable throughout the period, slightly decreasing from 21.84% in 2019 to 21.45% in 2023. This marginal decline suggests a consistent investment risk profile or capital structure with minimal changes in financing costs.

Invested Capital

Invested capital increased significantly from $481 million in 2019 to a peak of $10,693 million in 2021. Subsequently, it declined to $7,126 million in 2022 and further to $5,263 million by 2023. The initial growth phase suggests substantial investments deployed during the early years, followed by a contraction in capital employed in later years.

Economic Profit

Economic profit mirrored the trends observed in NOPAT, with a deep loss of -$710 million in 2019 turning into a peak profit of $12,413 million in 2021. Afterwards, it deteriorated to $1,980 million in 2022 and further into a significant loss of -$6,543 million in 2023. These fluctuations indicate volatile value creation, with considerable value added in 2021 but severe value destruction by the end of the period.

Overall, the data reveals a substantial volatility in profitability and value generation across the years. The peak performance in 2021 stands out as an exceptional period of growth and profit, followed by steep declines in both operating profit and economic profit in subsequent years. Despite the high cost of capital, which remained steady, the invested capital dynamics reflect a commitment to expansion early on, succeeded by a period of contraction. The negative returns in the most recent year warrant further investigation into operational challenges or market factors affecting the company's financial health.

The financial data reveals significant fluctuations in the company's profitability over the five-year period. The net income (loss) experienced a substantial improvement from 2019 to 2021, transitioning from negative figures in 2019 and 2020 to a strong positive net income in 2021. This peak was followed by a decline in 2022 and a return to negative net income in 2023.

Similarly, the net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) reflects this volatility. In 2019, the NOPAT was negative but shifted to a positive value in 2020, with a remarkable increase reaching its highest point in 2021. After peaking, there was a steep decline in 2022 and further deterioration in 2023, resulting in negative NOPAT.

Net Income (Loss) Trend

From a loss of $514 million in 2019 worsening to a loss of $747 million in 2020, the company reversed its fortunes dramatically in 2021, generating a net income of $12,202 million. This profit decreased to $8,362 million in 2022 and swung back to a loss of $4,714 million in 2023.

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT) Trend

Consistent with net income, NOPAT started negative at -$605 million in 2019, rose sharply to $3,091 million in 2020, then peaked at $14,737 million in 2021. The metric then declined to $3,520 million in 2022 and further dropped to -$5,414 million by 2023, displaying high volatility and indicating challenges in operational profitability towards the end of the period.

Overall Insight

The data demonstrates a peak in financial performance in 2021, followed by notable declines in subsequent years. The sharp swings between profit and loss suggest potential external or internal factors influencing operational efficiency and market conditions. The negative results in 2023 highlight recent financial challenges and may warrant further investigation into cost structures, revenue streams, or market dynamics.

The financial data exhibits notable fluctuations in the provision for income taxes as well as cash operating taxes over the five-year period.

Provision for (benefit from) income taxes

There is a clear upward trend from 2019 through 2022, starting with a benefit of US$ -1 million in 2019, rising to a modest provision of US$ 3 million in 2020, and then surging significantly to US$ 1,083 million in 2021 and further to US$ 1,213 million in 2022. However, in 2023, the provision decreased to US$ 772 million, indicating a partial reversal from the previous two years but still remaining at a substantially higher level than in 2019 and 2020.

Cash operating taxes

The cash operating taxes similarly show variability with a negative outflow of US$ -4 million in 2019, followed by a small positive figure of US$ 1 million in 2020. Thereafter, there is a sharp increase to US$ 1,381 million in 2021 and US$ 1,763 million in 2022, mirroring the upward trend seen in the provision for income taxes. Notably, in 2023 the cash operating taxes turn negative again at US$ -191 million, which contrasts starkly with the two previous years and suggests unusual tax-related cash flows or adjustments.

Overall, both provisions for income taxes and cash operating taxes remain low in the initial years before escalating steeply during 2021 and 2022, likely reflecting increased taxable income or changes in tax rates or rules during that period. The drop in 2023 for both measures, especially the negative cash operating taxes, may warrant further investigation as it suggests atypical tax events or benefits impacting cash flows.

The financial data over the five-year period exhibit notable fluctuations in the key metrics of total reported debt and leases, stockholders' equity, and invested capital.

Total Reported Debt & Leases

The total reported debt and leases increased consistently each year from 2019 to 2023. Starting at US$136 million in 2019, it rose sharply to US$238 million in 2020 and then accelerated to US$916 million in 2021. The upward trend continued but at a moderated pace with values reaching US$1,200 million in 2022 and US$1,243 million in 2023. This pattern suggests a notable increase in leverage, especially between 2019 and 2021, followed by a stabilization at a higher debt level.

Stockholders’ Equity

Stockholders’ equity showed a dramatic rise in 2021 after more moderate growth in the early years. Beginning at US$1,175 million in 2019, the equity more than doubled to US$2,561 million in 2020. It then surged to US$14,145 million in 2021 and continued to grow to US$19,123 million in 2022. However, in 2023, there was a significant decline to US$13,854 million. This peak followed by contraction indicates volatility in the company’s net assets, potentially reflecting market valuation changes or dividend payments.

Invested Capital

Invested capital experienced substantial volatility, showing an initial increase from US$481 million in 2019 to a peak of US$10,693 million in 2021. Following this peak, there was a sharp decline to US$7,126 million in 2022 and a further decrease to US$5,263 million in 2023. The sharp rise and subsequent decline suggest significant shifts in the company’s invested resources, which may be due to asset acquisitions or disposals, changes in working capital, or shifts in capital allocation strategies.

Overall, the data reveal a period of significant expansion in both debt and equity financing up to 2021 or 2022, followed by signs of retraction or adjustment in 2023. The increase in leverage alongside the rise in equity points to aggressive growth or investment phases, while the subsequent declines in equity and invested capital indicate possible strategic repositioning or market-related adjustments.

Economic Profit

The economic profit shows a significant fluctuation over the five-year period. Starting with a loss of $710 million at the end of 2019, it surged to a profit of $2,172 million in 2020 and peaked at $12,413 million in 2021. However, it then declined sharply to $1,980 million in 2022 and further turned negative to a loss of $6,543 million by the end of 2023. This pattern indicates a period of strong profitability followed by a notable downturn in the last two years.

Invested Capital

Invested capital increased markedly from $481 million in 2019 to a high of $10,693 million in 2021. This was followed by a decrease to $7,126 million in 2022 and a continued decline to $5,263 million at the end of 2023. The initial increase suggests aggressive investment or asset growth which contracted in the latter years, possibly indicating divestitures, asset impairments, or lower capital expenditures.

Economic Spread Ratio

The economic spread ratio, which reflects the return on invested capital relative to cost, began deeply negative at -147.71% in 2019. It improved substantially to positive figures in 2020 and 2021, peaking at 116.09% in 2021. The ratio then decreased to 27.79% in 2022 before turning negative again to -124.32% in 2023. This trend aligns with the economic profit movements, indicating the company’s profitability and efficiency in generating returns on capital have been volatile, with a notable decline in recent periods.

Economic Profit

The company’s economic profit showed significant fluctuations over the analyzed period. It started with a negative value of -710 million USD in 2019, followed by a sharp increase to a positive 2,172 million USD in 2020. The upward trend continued dramatically, peaking at 12,413 million USD in 2021. However, there was a notable decline in 2022, with economic profit dropping to 1,980 million USD. The period ended with a return to negative economic profit of -6,543 million USD in 2023, indicating a severe reversal from the previous years' gains.

Adjusted Net Product Sales

Adjusted net product sales exhibited a strong growth trend from 2019 through 2021. Starting at a slightly negative value of -72 million USD in 2019, sales increased substantially to 4,042 million USD in 2020 and further surged to 20,499 million USD in 2021. In 2022, sales decreased significantly to 14,278 million USD, and the declining trend continued in 2023 with sales falling to 4,611 million USD. Despite early robust growth, the last two years saw a marked contraction in sales revenues.

Economic Profit Margin

The economic profit margin mirrored the trends seen in economic profit with high volatility. No data was reported for 2019, but in 2020 the margin was strong at 53.73%. It further increased to 60.56% in 2021, indicating efficient conversion of sales into economic profit. However, the margin declined sharply to 13.87% in 2022 and worsened dramatically to -141.9% in 2023. This negative margin in the most recent year signals that losses substantially outweighed sales revenue, highlighting a significant deterioration in profitability.