Market Value Added (MVA)
Market value added (MVA) is the difference between a firm fair value and its invested capital. MVA is a measure of the value a company has created in excess of the resources already committed to the enterprise.
MVA
Moderna Inc., MVA calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Fair value of debt. See details »
2 Invested capital. See details »
An analysis of the financial data from 2019 to 2023 reveals a period of extreme volatility in market valuation and capital investment, characterized by a rapid ascent followed by a steady contraction in Market Value Added (MVA).
- Market Value Trajectory
- A significant expansion in market value occurred between 2019 and 2020, where the valuation rose from 8,753 million US$ to a peak of 59,503 million US$. Following this peak, a consistent downward trend is observed, with the market value declining to 27,724 million US$ by December 31, 2023. This represents a substantial reduction in fair value from the 2020 high.
- Invested Capital Dynamics
- Invested capital experienced an aggressive increase in the early part of the period, growing from 481 million US$ in 2019 to a peak of 10,693 million US$ in 2021. Subsequently, the invested capital began to contract, falling to 5,263 million US$ by the end of 2023, indicating a reduction in the total capital employed in the business after the 2021 peak.
- Market Value Added (MVA) Performance
- The MVA surged from 8,272 million US$ in 2019 to 55,320 million US$ in 2020, signaling an immense creation of shareholder wealth relative to the capital invested. However, this premium began to erode steadily starting in 2021. By December 31, 2023, the MVA declined to 22,461 million US$. While the MVA remains positive, the trend indicates a significant contraction in the market's valuation of the company's future growth potential and efficiency in utilizing invested capital compared to the 2020 peak.
The overall pattern indicates that while the company achieved a massive spike in market premium and capital expansion between 2019 and 2021, the subsequent years have been characterized by a correction in both market fair value and the total amount of invested capital, leading to a diminished, albeit still positive, MVA.
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MVA Spread Ratio
Moderna Inc., MVA spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Market value added (MVA)1 | 22,461) | 32,861) | 40,468) | 55,320) | 8,272) | |
| Invested capital2 | 5,263) | 7,126) | 10,693) | 4,183) | 481) | |
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| MVA spread ratio3 | 426.77% | 461.14% | 378.45% | 1,322.35% | 1,719.94% | |
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| MVA Spread Ratio, Competitors4 | ||||||
| AbbVie Inc. | 438.96% | 297.39% | 253.64% | — | — | |
| Amgen Inc. | 213.63% | 308.27% | 303.88% | — | — | |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | 100.64% | 160.91% | 138.81% | — | — | |
| Danaher Corp. | 157.62% | 156.95% | 187.44% | — | — | |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | 2,391.43% | 1,240.67% | 834.21% | — | — | |
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | 148.05% | 175.26% | 119.58% | — | — | |
| Johnson & Johnson | 309.06% | 288.40% | 366.82% | — | — | |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | 412.35% | 312.72% | 223.02% | — | — | |
| Pfizer Inc. | 40.45% | 124.43% | 210.66% | — | — | |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 663.41% | 521.52% | 461.61% | — | — | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 189.54% | 195.34% | 212.01% | — | — | |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 712.26% | 484.09% | 564.91% | — | — | |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 MVA. See details »
2 Invested capital. See details »
3 2023 Calculation
MVA spread ratio = 100 × MVA ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × 22,461 ÷ 5,263 = 426.77%
4 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The financial trajectory from 2019 to 2023 is characterized by an initial period of exponential growth in market valuation and capital investment, followed by a steady contraction and stabilization phase.
- Market Value Added (MVA)
- A substantial increase in MVA is observed between 2019 and 2020, rising from 8,272 million US$ to a peak of 55,320 million US$. Subsequent years exhibit a consistent downward trend, with value declining to 40,468 million US$ in 2021, 32,861 million US$ in 2022, and reaching 22,461 million US$ by the end of 2023.
- Invested Capital
- Invested capital experienced rapid expansion from 481 million US$ in 2019 to a peak of 10,693 million US$ in 2021. This expansion was followed by a period of capital reduction, with figures falling to 7,126 million US$ in 2022 and further to 5,263 million US$ in 2023.
- MVA Spread Ratio
- The MVA spread ratio shows a significant overall contraction. After starting at 1,719.94% in 2019 and 1,322.35% in 2020, the ratio experienced a sharp decline to 378.45% in 2021. A moderate recovery to 461.14% occurred in 2022, before settling at 426.77% in 2023. This pattern indicates a substantial reduction in the market premium attributed to the invested capital compared to the levels seen at the start of the period.
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MVA Margin
Moderna Inc., MVA margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions) | ||||||
| Market value added (MVA)1 | 22,461) | 32,861) | 40,468) | 55,320) | 8,272) | |
| Net product sales | 6,671) | 18,435) | 17,675) | 200) | —) | |
| Add: Increase (decrease) in deferred revenue | (2,060) | (4,157) | 2,824) | 3,842) | (72) | |
| Adjusted net product sales | 4,611) | 14,278) | 20,499) | 4,042) | (72) | |
| Performance Ratio | ||||||
| MVA margin2 | 487.11% | 230.15% | 197.41% | 1,368.57% | — | |
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| MVA Margin, Competitors3 | ||||||
| AbbVie Inc. | 551.18% | 420.74% | 432.93% | — | — | |
| Amgen Inc. | 555.51% | 493.74% | 503.37% | — | — | |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | 151.08% | 250.01% | 240.26% | — | — | |
| Danaher Corp. | 517.54% | 389.99% | 468.46% | — | — | |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | 2,058.25% | 1,055.71% | 769.37% | — | — | |
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | 251.89% | 295.97% | 211.56% | — | — | |
| Johnson & Johnson | 359.73% | 345.74% | 383.60% | — | — | |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | 479.92% | 390.05% | 323.90% | — | — | |
| Pfizer Inc. | 105.20% | 136.21% | 224.83% | — | — | |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 605.08% | 525.04% | 312.14% | — | — | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 378.46% | 360.17% | 431.35% | — | — | |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 955.82% | 714.32% | 700.10% | — | — | |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 MVA. See details »
2 2023 Calculation
MVA margin = 100 × MVA ÷ Adjusted net product sales
= 100 × 22,461 ÷ 4,611 = 487.11%
3 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The financial trajectory from 2019 to 2023 is characterized by a period of rapid valuation expansion followed by a consistent contraction in both market value and revenue. A peak in market value was reached in 2020, while peak sales were realized in 2021, indicating a misalignment between the timing of maximum market anticipation and actual revenue realization.
- Market Value Added (MVA)
- A significant surge in MVA is observed between 2019 and 2020, increasing from US$ 8,272 million to a peak of US$ 55,320 million. This was followed by a sustained downward trend over the subsequent three years, with the value declining to US$ 22,461 million by December 31, 2023, reflecting a reduction in the premium the market is willing to pay over the capital invested.
- Adjusted Net Product Sales
- Revenue patterns exhibit a sharp ascent from negative values in 2019 to a peak of US$ 20,499 million in 2021. Subsequently, a steep contraction occurred, with sales falling to US$ 4,611 million in 2023. This represents a substantial decline from the 2021 high, signaling a normalization or reduction in product demand.
- MVA Margin
- The MVA margin displays extreme volatility throughout the period. After reaching an initial peak of 1,368.57% in 2020, the margin corrected sharply to 197.41% in 2021. An upward trend emerged in the final two years, culminating in a margin of 487.11% in 2023. This increase in the margin during a period of declining MVA is a result of adjusted net product sales contracting at a faster rate than the market value added.
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