Moderna Inc. (NASDAQ:MRNA)

Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)

The net operating profit after taxes exhibited significant volatility over the five-year period. Initially, the value was negative at -605 million US dollars in 2019, indicating an operating loss. This shifted to a substantial positive figure of 3,091 million in 2020, followed by a remarkable increase to 14,737 million in 2021, representing peak profitability. However, the subsequent years showed declines, with NOPAT dropping to 3,520 million in 2022 and reverting to a negative figure at -5,414 million in 2023. This pattern suggests a period of rapid growth in operating profitability that was not sustained, culminating in a significant loss in the latest year.

Invested Capital

Invested capital increased sharply from 481 million US dollars in 2019 to 4,183 million in 2020, reflecting increased investment or asset base expansion. The upward trend continued, reaching 10,693 million in 2021. However, from 2021 onwards, invested capital decreased substantially to 7,126 million in 2022 and further down to 5,263 million in 2023. This reduction may indicate divestment, asset disposals, or a decrease in capital employed in operations after a period of rapid growth.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

The return on invested capital exhibited extreme fluctuations aligned with changes in profitability and invested capital. In 2019, ROIC was deeply negative at -125.87%, consistent with operating losses. A sharp recovery occurred in 2020, with ROIC rising to 73.88%, and further improvement in 2021 to 137.82%, indicating highly efficient use of capital during peak profitability. This efficiency declined in 2022 to 49.4%, followed by a dramatic fall to -102.87% in 2023. The large negative value in the latest year reflects poor capital utilization linked to the negative operating profit and reduced invested capital.

Overall Trends and Insights

The data highlight a period of rapid expansion and profitability between 2020 and 2021, followed by declining performance and capital base reduction from 2022 to 2023. The company's ability to generate returns on invested capital was highly variable, peaking in 2021 but deteriorating markedly thereafter. The sharp reversal to losses and negative returns in 2023 suggests challenges in maintaining operational efficiency and profitability in the current environment. The contraction in invested capital after 2021 may be a response to these challenges or a strategic repositioning of the company's asset base.

Operating Profit Margin (OPM)

The operating profit margin demonstrates significant volatility over the periods analyzed. Beginning with a notably high margin of 76.5% in 2020 and increasing slightly to 78.63% in 2021, there is a marked decline in 2022 to 37%, followed by a drastic fall into negative territory at -121.55% in 2023. This pattern indicates growing operational challenges or increased costs impacting profitability adversely in the most recent year.

Turnover of Capital (TO)

The turnover of capital ratio shows a general growth trend from a negative value of -0.15 in 2019 to a peak of 2 in 2022, suggesting improving efficiency in using capital to generate revenue during this period. However, the ratio declines to 0.88 in 2023, indicating a reduction in capital turnover efficiency after reaching the peak.

1 – Effective Cash Tax Rate (CTR)

This metric remains consistently high, close to 100% across most years, except for a decrease to 91.43% in 2021 and a more pronounced drop to 66.63% in 2022. The return to 100% in 2023 suggests a reset or normalization in the cash tax rate after a temporary decrease, which could indicate changes in tax strategy or external tax environment impacts during 2021 and 2022.

Return on Invested Capital (ROIC)

Return on invested capital exhibits considerable fluctuations. Starting at a deeply negative figure of -125.87% in 2019, it sharply turns positive to 73.88% in 2020, increases further to 137.82% in 2021, and then falls to 49.4% in 2022. In 2023, ROIC plunges back into negative at -102.87%, mirroring the downturn seen in operating profit margin and indicating potential inefficiencies or losses in capital investment in the latest period.

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes (NOPBT)

The net operating profit before taxes shows a highly volatile trend over the analyzed period. It starts with a negative value of -610 million US dollars in 2019, indicating an operating loss. In 2020, there is a significant turnaround with a positive profit of 3,092 million, followed by a steep increase to 16,118 million in 2021. However, the profit sharply declines to 5,283 million in 2022 and reverses to a loss of -5,605 million in 2023. This pattern suggests substantial operational fluctuations and possibly extraordinary items affecting profitability.

Adjusted Net Product Sales

Adjusted net product sales also exhibit considerable variability. The sales figure turns positive and rises dramatically from a negative -72 million in 2019 to 4,042 million in 2020. Sales peak at 20,499 million in 2021, followed by a decline to 14,278 million in 2022 and a further significant drop to 4,611 million in 2023. The trajectory indicates a strong sales growth period between 2019 and 2021, with a pronounced reduction thereafter, pointing to either decreased demand, pricing pressures, or product lifecycle effects.

Operating Profit Margin (OPM)

The operating profit margin aligns with the profit trends, showing a robust margin of 76.5% in 2020 and reaching a high of 78.63% in 2021. It then declines substantially to 37% in 2022, indicating reduced operational efficiency or higher costs relative to sales. In 2023, the margin turns negative to -121.55%, reflecting operating losses significantly exceeding revenues for that year. This margin deterioration validates the observed net operating losses and emphasizes the impact of declining sales or rising expenses on profitability.

The financial data demonstrates significant fluctuations in key performance metrics over the span from 2019 to 2023.

Adjusted Net Product Sales

There is a marked shift from a negative value of -72 million US dollars in 2019 to a peak of 20,499 million in 2021, indicating a substantial improvement and growth in sales. However, subsequent years show a decline, dropping to 14,278 million in 2022 and further down to 4,611 million in 2023, suggesting a significant reduction in sales performance after the peak.

Invested Capital

Invested capital initially increased considerably from 481 million in 2019 to 10,693 million in 2021, reflecting increased investment or asset base growth. After 2021, invested capital decreases to 7,126 million in 2022 and further to 5,263 million in 2023, indicating a possible divestment or asset optimization during these years.

Turnover of Capital (TO)

Capital turnover shows an upward trend from -0.15 in 2019 to a peak of 2.00 in 2022, signifying improved efficiency in generating revenue from invested capital. However, in 2023, this ratio declines sharply to 0.88, indicating a reduction in the efficiency of capital utilization.

Overall, the data reveals a period of rapid growth and expansion in both sales and capital investment through 2021, accompanied by improving capital turnover. Post-2021, a contraction phase is evident with declining sales, reduced capital investment, and diminished capital turnover efficiency. This pattern could point toward either strategic scaling back, market challenges, or other operational adjustments affecting the company’s financial dynamics in the later years.

The financial data reveals substantial fluctuations in the company's profitability and tax payments over the examined five-year period. Key metrics such as cash operating taxes, net operating profit before taxes (NOPBT), and the effective cash tax rate (CTR) display notable variability, indicating shifts in operational performance and tax liabilities.

Cash Operating Taxes

The cash operating taxes exhibit a volatile trend. In 2019, taxes were negative (-4 million US$), suggesting a tax refund or credit situation. This shifted to a minimal positive tax amount in 2020 (1 million US$), followed by a dramatic increase in 2021 (1,381 million US$) and a further rise in 2022 (1,763 million US$). However, in 2023, the company reported negative cash operating taxes (-191 million US$), indicating another likely tax benefit or refund.

Net Operating Profit Before Taxes (NOPBT)

The NOPBT values indicate a substantial improvement and then decline in operational profitability. In 2019, the company reported an operating loss before tax amounting to -610 million US$. This reversed in 2020 to a profit of 3,092 million US$, followed by a peak in 2021 of 16,118 million US$. However, 2022 saw a significant decline to 5,283 million US$, and in 2023, the company experienced an operating loss before taxes of -5,605 million US$, marking a steep downturn.

Effective Cash Tax Rate (CTR)

Data on the effective cash tax rate is incomplete but reveals a rising trend from 2020 to 2022. The rate increased from 0.05% in 2020 to 8.57% in 2021, and then sharply to 33.37% in 2022. Data for 2019 and 2023 are not available, limiting full-year comparisons. The 2022 figure suggests a substantial increase in tax burden relative to pre-tax profits for that year.

Overall, the data reflect a period of high volatility characterized by strong profitability growth peaking in 2021, followed by a marked decline culminating in losses by 2023. The tax payments correlate somewhat with profitability but also indicate episodes of tax refunds or credits in certain years. The rising effective tax rate between 2020 and 2022 points toward increasing effective taxation despite fluctuating profits.