Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Moderna Inc., FCFE calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
The financial trajectory from 2019 to 2023 is characterized by extreme volatility in cash generation, following a bell-shaped curve that peaked in 2021 before returning to a negative state by the end of the period.
- Cash Flow Trajectory and Volatility
- A transition from negative to positive cash flow occurred between 2019 and 2020, with Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) rising from negative US$ 490 million to positive US$ 1,953 million. This growth accelerated sharply in 2021, reaching a peak of US$ 13,196 million. However, a significant reversal followed, with FCFE declining to US$ 4,397 million in 2022 and plummeting to negative US$ 4,095 million in 2023.
- Correlation Between Operating Activities and FCFE
- A strong positive correlation is observed between net cash provided by operating activities and FCFE across all five years. The narrow variance between these two metrics suggests that capital expenditures and net debt movements had a relatively minor impact on the overall equity cash flow compared to the primary drivers of operating cash flow.
- Analysis of Recent Performance
- The shift in 2023 to a negative FCFE of US$ 4,095 million indicates a substantial reversal of the cash-generative trend seen during the 2020-2022 period. The current deficit in FCFE exceeds the initial negative position held in 2019, reflecting a heightened rate of cash consumption in the most recent fiscal year.
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Price to FCFE Ratio, Current
Moderna Inc., current P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| No. shares of common stock outstanding | 384,817,811 |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | |
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions) | (4,095) |
| FCFE per share | -10.64 |
| Current share price (P) | 50.28 |
| Valuation Ratio | |
| P/FCFE | — |
| Benchmarks | |
| P/FCFE, Competitors1 | |
| AbbVie Inc. | 28.94 |
| Amgen Inc. | 100.20 |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | 16.39 |
| Danaher Corp. | 25.75 |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | 70.89 |
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | 25.72 |
| Johnson & Johnson | 22.05 |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | 14.74 |
| Pfizer Inc. | 18.87 |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 22.32 |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 21.93 |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 41.42 |
| P/FCFE, Sector | |
| Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences | 24.36 |
| P/FCFE, Industry | |
| Health Care | 23.53 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).
1 Click competitor name to see calculations.
If the company P/FCFE is lower then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively undervalued.
Otherwise, if the company P/FCFE is higher then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively overvalued.
Price to FCFE Ratio, Historical
Moderna Inc., historical P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2023 | Dec 31, 2022 | Dec 31, 2021 | Dec 31, 2020 | Dec 31, 2019 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. shares of common stock outstanding1 | 382,073,208 | 386,339,594 | 402,872,986 | 399,769,582 | 368,642,548 | |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | ||||||
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions)2 | (4,095) | 4,397) | 13,196) | 1,953) | (490) | |
| FCFE per share3 | -10.72 | 11.38 | 32.75 | 4.89 | -1.33 | |
| Share price1, 4 | 96.46 | 139.26 | 151.33 | 154.81 | 26.16 | |
| Valuation Ratio | ||||||
| P/FCFE5 | — | 12.24 | 4.62 | 31.68 | — | |
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| P/FCFE, Competitors6 | ||||||
| AbbVie Inc. | 17.37 | 22.66 | 18.76 | — | — | |
| Amgen Inc. | 4.71 | 8.32 | 13.52 | — | — | |
| Bristol-Myers Squibb Co. | 7.52 | 22.85 | 16.17 | — | — | |
| Danaher Corp. | 53.08 | 32.04 | 20.75 | — | — | |
| Eli Lilly & Co. | 75.06 | 60.51 | 35.17 | — | — | |
| Gilead Sciences Inc. | 12.81 | 15.22 | 12.70 | — | — | |
| Johnson & Johnson | 24.31 | 16.73 | 23.28 | — | — | |
| Merck & Co. Inc. | 24.48 | 22.40 | 18.72 | — | — | |
| Pfizer Inc. | 3.82 | 10.56 | 8.88 | — | — | |
| Regeneron Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 28.02 | 25.12 | 10.35 | — | — | |
| Thermo Fisher Scientific Inc. | 31.16 | 27.98 | 13.44 | — | — | |
| Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc. | 33.45 | 19.91 | 26.08 | — | — | |
| P/FCFE, Sector | ||||||
| Pharmaceuticals, Biotechnology & Life Sciences | 16.93 | 19.44 | 16.49 | — | — | |
| P/FCFE, Industry | ||||||
| Health Care | 18.20 | 18.50 | 17.94 | — | — | |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
3 2023 Calculation
FCFE per share = FCFE ÷ No. shares of common stock outstanding
= -4,095,000,000 ÷ 382,073,208 = -10.72
4 Closing price as at the filing date of Moderna Inc. Annual Report.
5 2023 Calculation
P/FCFE = Share price ÷ FCFE per share
= 96.46 ÷ -10.72 = —
6 Click competitor name to see calculations.
The financial performance between 2019 and 2023 is characterized by extreme volatility in cash flow generation and a subsequent cyclical impact on valuation metrics.
- Share Price Trajectory
- A significant appreciation in share price occurred between 2019 and 2020, moving from 26.16 to a peak of 154.81. This was followed by a consistent downward trend over the subsequent three years, with the price declining to 96.46 by the end of 2023.
- Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) per Share Dynamics
- Cash flow patterns shifted from a negative position of -1.33 in 2019 to a substantial peak of 32.75 in 2021. This expansion was short-lived, as FCFE per share contracted to 11.38 in 2022 and returned to a negative value of -10.72 in 2023, indicating a transition from a period of high cash generation back to a phase of cash consumption.
- Price to FCFE (P/FCFE) Ratio Analysis
- The P/FCFE ratio was not calculable in 2019 and 2023 due to negative FCFE values. During the period of positive cash flow, the ratio exhibited significant fluctuation. A high ratio of 31.68 in 2020 compressed sharply to 4.62 in 2021, signaling that the growth in FCFE far exceeded the increase in share price. By 2022, the ratio expanded to 12.24, reflecting a more rapid decline in cash flow per share than the decline in the market price.
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