Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Moderna Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast
US$ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 19.08% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFF0 | 3,826 | ||
| 1 | FCFF1 | 4,055 | = 3,826 × (1 + 5.98%) | 3,405 |
| 2 | FCFF2 | 4,296 | = 4,055 × (1 + 5.95%) | 3,029 |
| 3 | FCFF3 | 4,550 | = 4,296 × (1 + 5.92%) | 2,694 |
| 4 | FCFF4 | 4,818 | = 4,550 × (1 + 5.89%) | 2,396 |
| 5 | FCFF5 | 5,100 | = 4,818 × (1 + 5.86%) | 2,130 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 40,839 | = 5,100 × (1 + 5.86%) ÷ (19.08% – 5.86%) | 17,055 |
| Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. capital | 30,710 | |||
| Less: Financing lease liabilities (fair value) | 1,073 | |||
| Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. common stock | 29,637 | |||
| Intrinsic value of Moderna Inc. common stock (per share) | $77.73 | |||
| Current share price | $77.53 | |||
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)
Moderna Inc., cost of capital
| Value1 | Weight | Required rate of return2 | Calculation | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Equity (fair value) | 29,561 | 0.96 | 19.66% | |
| Financing lease liabilities (fair value) | 1,073 | 0.04 | 3.15% | = 3.60% × (1 – 12.56%) |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).
1 US$ in millions
Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 381,283,996 × $77.53
= $29,560,948,209.88
Financing lease liabilities (fair value). See details »
2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »
Required rate of return on debt. See details »
Required rate of return on debt is after tax.
Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (12.70% + 8.10% + 21.00% + 0.00% + 21.00%) ÷ 5
= 12.56%
WACC = 19.08%
FCFF Growth Rate (g)
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Moderna Inc., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31).
2022 Calculations
2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 29 × (1 – 12.70%)
= 25
3 EBIT(1 – EITR)
= Net income (loss) + Interest expense, after tax
= 8,362 + 25
= 8,387
4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [8,387 – 25] ÷ 8,387
= 1.00
5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 8,387 ÷ 20,196
= 41.53%
6 g = RR × ROIC
= 1.00 × 5.99%
= 5.98%
FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (30,634 × 19.08% – 3,826) ÷ (30,634 + 3,826)
= 5.86%
where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Moderna Inc. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Moderna Inc. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Moderna Inc. capital
FCFF growth rate (g) forecast
Moderna Inc., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 5.98% |
| 2 | g2 | 5.95% |
| 3 | g3 | 5.92% |
| 4 | g4 | 5.89% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 5.86% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.98% + (5.86% – 5.98%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.95%
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.98% + (5.86% – 5.98%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.92%
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.98% + (5.86% – 5.98%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.89%