Stock Analysis on Net

Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ:CSCO)

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.20% per annum.
  • CSCO price at the close of May 28, 2025 was $63.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
  • CSCO price at the close of May 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CSCO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2024
End date: April 2, 2025

a = 2.1586

b = 0.0011

s = 0.0409

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 51.20%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0409) – 1
= 17.77%

April 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1586 + 0.0011 × 1,417 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.8454)
= $46.78

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y975)
= Exp(a + b × X975 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1586 + 0.0011 × 1,417 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(3.6819)
= $39.72

April 2, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1586 + 0.0011 × 1,769 + 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.2442)
= $69.70

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,769 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1586 + 0.0011 × 1,769 – 2 × 0.0409)
= Exp(4.0806)
= $59.18

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 51.20% per annum.
  • CSCO price at the close of May 28, 2025 was $63.34 and was inside the primary price channel.

Secondary Trend

Start date: October 16, 2024
End date: May 28, 2025

a = 3.5094

b = 0.0003

s = 0.0413

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 12.92%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0413) – 1
= 17.98%

October 16, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5094 + 0.0003 × 1,601 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.1252)
= $61.88

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,103)
= Exp(a + b × X1,103 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,601 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5094 + 0.0003 × 1,601 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(3.9598)
= $52.45

May 28, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5094 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.1997)
= $66.67

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5094 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0413)
= Exp(4.0343)
= $56.51

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 12.92% per annum.
  • CSCO price at the close of May 28, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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