Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.26% per annum.
- BA price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $198.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.82 (16.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.17% per annum.
- BA price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 2, 2024
End date: March 9, 2026
a = 4.2018
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0867
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.26%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0867) – 1
= 41.48%
August 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2018 + 0.0008 × 1,040 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.1935)
= $180.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y716)
= Exp(a + b × X716 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,040 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2018 + 0.0008 × 1,040 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(4.8465)
= $127.30
March 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2018 + 0.0008 × 1,624 + 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.6530)
= $285.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,115)
= Exp(a + b × X1,115 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,624 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.2018 + 0.0008 × 1,624 – 2 × 0.0867)
= Exp(5.3060)
= $201.54
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.26% per annum.
- BA price at the close of September 25, 2026 was $198.07 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $37.82 (16.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2025
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 5.3327
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0654
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 1.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0654) – 1
= 29.89%
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3327 + 0.0000 × 1,324 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(5.5055)
= $246.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y910)
= Exp(a + b × X910 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3327 + 0.0000 × 1,324 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(5.2440)
= $189.43
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3327 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(5.5214)
= $249.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3327 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0654)
= Exp(5.2599)
= $192.46
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1.17% per annum.
- BA price at the close of September 25, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.