Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.31% per annum.
- BA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $173.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.80% per annum.
- BA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BA price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 10.8952
b = -0.0031
s = 0.0264
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0031) – 1
= -68.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0264) – 1
= 11.16%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8952 + -0.0031 × 1,729 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.5043)
= $245.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,186)
= Exp(a + b × X1,186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,729 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8952 + -0.0031 × 1,729 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.3985)
= $221.07
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8952 + -0.0031 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.2052)
= $182.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.8952 + -0.0031 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0264)
= Exp(5.0994)
= $163.92
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 68.31% per annum.
- BA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $173.40 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 10.2407
b = -0.0028
s = 0.0262
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0028) – 1
= -63.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0262) – 1
= 11.05%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2407 + -0.0028 × 1,746 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.4318)
= $228.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,746 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2407 + -0.0028 × 1,746 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.3270)
= $205.83
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2407 + -0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.2146)
= $183.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.2407 + -0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0262)
= Exp(5.1099)
= $165.65
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 63.80% per annum.
- BA price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.