Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Difficulty: Intermediate
In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company's asset base.
Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)
Boeing Co., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast
USD $ in millions, except per share data
| Year | Value | FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) | Calculation | Present value at 15.49% |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01 | FCFE0 | 12,690 | ||
| 1 | FCFE1 | 46,187 | = 12,690 × (1 + 263.96%) | 39,993 |
| 2 | FCFE2 | 138,557 | = 46,187 × (1 + 199.99%) | 103,884 |
| 3 | FCFE3 | 327,019 | = 138,557 × (1 + 136.02%) | 212,300 |
| 4 | FCFE4 | 562,613 | = 327,019 × (1 + 72.04%) | 316,261 |
| 5 | FCFE5 | 608,012 | = 562,613 × (1 + 8.07%) | 295,942 |
| 5 | Terminal value (TV5) | 8,855,685 | = 608,012 × (1 + 8.07%) ÷ (15.49% – 8.07%) | 4,310,394 |
| Intrinsic value of Boeing's common stock | 5,278,773 | |||
| Intrinsic value of Boeing's common stock (per share) | $9,295.49 | |||
| Current share price | $325.47 | |||
Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-12).
Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.
Required Rate of Return (r)
| Assumptions | ||
| Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 | RF | 3.11% |
| Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 | E(RM) | 12.39% |
| Systematic risk (β) of Boeing's common stock | βBA | 1.33 |
| Required rate of return on Boeing's common stock3 | rBA | 15.49% |
1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).
Calculations
3 rBA = RF + βBA [E(RM) – RF]
= 3.11% + 1.33 [12.39% – 3.11%]
= 15.49%
FCFE Growth Rate (g)
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model
Boeing Co., PRAT model
Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-08), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-10), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2014-02-14).
2017 Calculations
1 Retention rate = (Net earnings related to parent – Cash dividends declared) ÷ Net earnings related to parent
= (8,197 – 3,556) ÷ 8,197 = 0.57
2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings related to parent ÷ Revenues
= 100 × 8,197 ÷ 93,392 = 8.78%
3 Asset turnover = Revenues ÷ Total assets
= 93,392 ÷ 92,333 = 1.01
4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Shareholders’ equity
= 92,333 ÷ 355 = 260.09
5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= 0.54 × 6.13% × 0.99 × 80.57 = 263.96%
FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model
g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × (184,830 × 15.49% – 12,690) ÷ (184,830 + 12,690) = 8.07%
where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Boeing's common stock (USD $ in millions)
FCFE0 = last year Boeing's free cash flow to equity (USD $ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Boeing's common stock
FCFE growth rate (g) forecast
Boeing Co., H-model
| Year | Value | gt |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | g1 | 263.96% |
| 2 | g2 | 199.99% |
| 3 | g3 | 136.02% |
| 4 | g4 | 72.04% |
| 5 and thereafter | g5 | 8.07% |
where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5
Calculations
g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 263.96% + (8.07% – 263.96%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 199.99%
g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 263.96% + (8.07% – 263.96%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 136.02%
g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 263.96% + (8.07% – 263.96%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = 72.04%