Stock Analysis on Net
Stock Analysis on Net

Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE:CAT)

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Present Value of Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) is generally described as cash flows available to the equity holder after payments to debt holders and after allowing for expenditures to maintain the company asset base.

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Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Caterpillar Inc., free cash flow to equity (FCFE) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value FCFEt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFE0
1 FCFE1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFE2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFE3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFE4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFE5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ( – )
Intrinsic value of Caterpillar Inc. common stock
 
Intrinsic value of Caterpillar Inc. common stock (per share)
Current share price

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Assumptions
Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF
Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM)
Systematic risk of Caterpillar Inc. common stock βCAT
 
Required rate of return on Caterpillar Inc. common stock3 rCAT

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

2 See details »

3 rCAT = RF + βCAT [E(RM) – RF]
= + [ – ]
=

FCFE Growth Rate (g)

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Caterpillar Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Dividends declared
Profit (loss) attributable to common stockholders
Sales of Machinery, Energy & Transportation
Total assets
Equity attributable to common stockholders
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1
Profit margin2
Asset turnover3
Financial leverage4
Averages
Retention rate
Profit margin
Asset turnover
Financial leverage
 
FCFE growth rate (g)5

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31).

2020 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Profit (loss) attributable to common stockholders – Dividends declared) ÷ Profit (loss) attributable to common stockholders
= ( – ) ÷
=

2 Profit margin = 100 × Profit (loss) attributable to common stockholders ÷ Sales of Machinery, Energy & Transportation
= 100 × ÷
=

3 Asset turnover = Sales of Machinery, Energy & Transportation ÷ Total assets
= ÷
=

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Equity attributable to common stockholders
= ÷
=

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= × × ×
=

FCFE growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Equity market value0 × r – FCFE0) ÷ (Equity market value0 + FCFE0)
= 100 × ( × – ) ÷ ( + )
=

where:
Equity market value0 = current market value of Caterpillar Inc. common stock (US$ in millions)
FCFE0 = the last year Caterpillar Inc. free cash flow to equity (US$ in millions)
r = required rate of return on Caterpillar Inc. common stock

FCFE growth rate (g) forecast

Caterpillar Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g3 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=

g4 = g1 + (g5 – g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + ( – ) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
=