Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.34% per annum.
- HON price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $211.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.35% per annum.
- HON price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 5.6434
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0423
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -20.34%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0423) – 1
= 18.44%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6434 + -0.0006 × 203 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.6015)
= $270.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6434 + -0.0006 × 203 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.4323)
= $228.68
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6434 + -0.0006 × 458 + 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.4427)
= $231.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6434 + -0.0006 × 458 – 2 × 0.0423)
= Exp(5.2735)
= $195.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 20.34% per annum.
- HON price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $211.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.2843
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0369
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -54.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0369) – 1
= 15.90%
July 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2843 + -0.0021 × 373 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.5568)
= $258.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y257)
= Exp(a + b × X257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 373 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2843 + -0.0021 × 373 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.4092)
= $223.44
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2843 + -0.0021 × 458 + 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.3742)
= $215.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y317)
= Exp(a + b × X317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 458 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2843 + -0.0021 × 458 – 2 × 0.0369)
= Exp(5.2266)
= $186.15
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 54.35% per annum.
- HON price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.