Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.37% per annum.
- HON price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $223.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 217.12% per annum.
- HON price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of HON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 5.6338
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0418
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0418) – 1
= 18.21%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6338 + -0.0006 × 203 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(5.5977)
= $269.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y140)
= Exp(a + b × X140 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6338 + -0.0006 × 203 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(5.4304)
= $228.24
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6338 + -0.0006 × 472 + 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(5.4390)
= $230.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y327)
= Exp(a + b × X327 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 472 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6338 + -0.0006 × 472 – 2 × 0.0418)
= Exp(5.2717)
= $194.74
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.37% per annum.
- HON price at the close of November 2, 2026 was $223.77 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2026
End date: November 2, 2026
a = 3.9066
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0099
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 217.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0099) – 1
= 4.03%
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9066 + 0.0032 × 449 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(5.3461)
= $209.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y310)
= Exp(a + b × X310 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9066 + 0.0032 × 449 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(5.3066)
= $201.66
November 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9066 + 0.0032 × 475 + 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(5.4283)
= $227.77
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y328)
= Exp(a + b × X328 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 475 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9066 + 0.0032 × 475 – 2 × 0.0099)
= Exp(5.3888)
= $218.94
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 217.12% per annum.
- HON price at the close of November 2, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.