Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.70% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of October 27, 2025 was $379.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.93 (14.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.96% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of October 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2022
End date: January 24, 2025
a = 4.1376
b = 0.0012
s = 0.0773
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0012) – 1
= 52.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0773) – 1
= 36.24%
April 11, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1376 + 0.0012 × 530 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(4.9069)
= $135.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y365)
= Exp(a + b × X365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 530 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1376 + 0.0012 × 530 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(4.5976)
= $99.25
January 24, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,549 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1376 + 0.0012 × 1,549 + 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(6.0887)
= $440.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,064)
= Exp(a + b × X1,064 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,549 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.1376 + 0.0012 × 1,549 – 2 × 0.0773)
= Exp(5.7795)
= $323.59
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 52.70% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of October 27, 2025 was $379.74 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $65.93 (14.79%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 2, 2024
End date: October 27, 2025
a = 5.3426
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0863
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 10.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0863) – 1
= 41.21%
February 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3426 + 0.0003 × 1,192 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.8547)
= $348.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y820)
= Exp(a + b × X820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,192 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3426 + 0.0003 × 1,192 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.5096)
= $247.05
October 27, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3426 + 0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(6.0350)
= $417.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3426 + 0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0863)
= Exp(5.6899)
= $295.87
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 10.96% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of October 27, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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