Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.82% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $435.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.37% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of June 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.50 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2025
End date: May 15, 2026
a = 5.3273
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0417
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0417) – 1
= 18.13%
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 247 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3273 + 0.0017 × 247 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(5.8407)
= $344.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y171)
= Exp(a + b × X171 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 247 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3273 + 0.0017 × 247 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(5.6741)
= $291.23
May 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3273 + 0.0017 × 401 + 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(6.1089)
= $449.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.3273 + 0.0017 × 401 – 2 × 0.0417)
= Exp(5.9423)
= $380.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.82% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $435.78 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2026
End date: June 17, 2026
a = 6.1337
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0321
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0321) – 1
= 13.71%
April 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1337 + -0.0003 × 365 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.0772)
= $435.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1337 + -0.0003 × 365 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(5.9488)
= $383.28
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1337 + -0.0003 × 434 + 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(6.0544)
= $425.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 434 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.1337 + -0.0003 × 434 – 2 × 0.0321)
= Exp(5.9259)
= $374.63
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.37% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of June 22, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $10.50 (2.47%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.