Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.43% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $435.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 17, 2025
End date: August 21, 2026
a = 5.6352
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0474
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0474) – 1
= 20.89%
November 17, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y93)
= Exp(a + b × X93 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 132 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6352 + 0.0011 × 132 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.8729)
= $355.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y93)
= Exp(a + b × X93 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 132 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6352 + 0.0011 × 132 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.6832)
= $293.88
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6352 + 0.0011 × 409 + 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(6.1726)
= $479.43
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6352 + 0.0011 × 409 – 2 × 0.0474)
= Exp(5.9829)
= $396.58
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.43% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $435.43 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 5.9307
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0430
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 8.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0430) – 1
= 18.78%
April 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9307 + 0.0002 × 275 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(6.0810)
= $437.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y190)
= Exp(a + b × X190 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9307 + 0.0002 × 275 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(5.9088)
= $368.27
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9307 + 0.0002 × 437 + 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(6.1188)
= $454.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9307 + 0.0002 × 437 – 2 × 0.0430)
= Exp(5.9466)
= $382.47
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 8.90% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.