Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 81.79% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $327.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.75 (4.87%).
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.28% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.33 (1.01%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ETN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 21, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 8.1666
b = -0.0047
s = 0.0317
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0047) – 1
= -81.79%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0317) – 1
= 13.52%
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1666 + -0.0047 × 440 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.1767)
= $481.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1666 + -0.0047 × 440 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(6.0500)
= $424.10
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1666 + -0.0047 × 484 + 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.9714)
= $392.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y335)
= Exp(a + b × X335 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 484 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1666 + -0.0047 × 484 – 2 × 0.0317)
= Exp(5.8446)
= $345.38
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 81.79% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $327.02 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $16.75 (4.87%).
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 8.9713
b = -0.0064
s = 0.0370
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0064) – 1
= -90.28%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0370) – 1
= 15.96%
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9713 + -0.0064 × 450 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(6.1718)
= $479.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 450 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9713 + -0.0064 × 450 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(6.0237)
= $413.09
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 485 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9713 + -0.0064 × 485 + 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.9483)
= $383.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y336)
= Exp(a + b × X336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 485 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.9713 + -0.0064 × 485 – 2 × 0.0370)
= Exp(5.8002)
= $330.35
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 90.28% per annum.
- ETN price at the close of November 5, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $3.33 (1.01%).