Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.47% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $610.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $130.26 (27.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.82% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 14, 2026
End date: July 22, 2026
a = 6.6907
b = -0.0014
s = 0.0604
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0604) – 1
= 27.34%
January 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y113)
= Exp(a + b × X113 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 163 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6907 + -0.0014 × 163 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.5874)
= $725.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y113)
= Exp(a + b × X113 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 163 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6907 + -0.0014 × 163 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.3456)
= $570.00
July 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6907 + -0.0014 × 352 + 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.3274)
= $559.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y242)
= Exp(a + b × X242 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6907 + -0.0014 × 352 – 2 × 0.0604)
= Exp(6.0857)
= $439.52
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.47% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $610.05 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $130.26 (27.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 6.0688
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0571
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 24.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0571) – 1
= 25.65%
April 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0688 + 0.0006 × 262 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.3421)
= $567.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y181)
= Exp(a + b × X181 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0688 + 0.0006 × 262 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.1137)
= $452.02
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0688 + 0.0006 × 464 + 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.4647)
= $642.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0688 + 0.0006 × 464 – 2 × 0.0571)
= Exp(6.2364)
= $511.01
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 24.82% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.