Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.46% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $502.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.77% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2026
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 7.1767
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0460
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0460) – 1
= 20.22%
February 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1767 + -0.0023 × 286 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(6.5991)
= $734.41
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y196)
= Exp(a + b × X196 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1767 + -0.0023 × 286 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(6.4149)
= $610.89
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1767 + -0.0023 × 423 + 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(6.2783)
= $532.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1767 + -0.0023 × 423 – 2 × 0.0460)
= Exp(6.0941)
= $443.23
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.46% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $502.07 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 23, 2026
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 6.2090
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0231
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 3.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0231) – 1
= 9.68%
April 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2090 + 0.0001 × 356 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.2913)
= $539.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 356 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2090 + 0.0001 × 356 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.1989)
= $492.19
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2090 + 0.0001 × 423 + 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.2981)
= $543.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2090 + 0.0001 × 423 – 2 × 0.0231)
= Exp(6.2057)
= $495.55
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 3.77% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.