Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.59% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $509.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.69% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LMT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 3, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 7.3446
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0205
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0205) – 1
= 8.56%
August 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3446 + -0.0026 × 364 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.4313)
= $620.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3446 + -0.0026 × 364 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.3491)
= $572.00
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3446 + -0.0026 × 431 + 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.2557)
= $520.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3446 + -0.0026 × 431 – 2 × 0.0205)
= Exp(6.1735)
= $479.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 61.59% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was $509.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 6.9486
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0131
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -45.69%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0131) – 1
= 5.36%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9486 + -0.0017 × 393 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(6.3173)
= $554.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9486 + -0.0017 × 393 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(6.2651)
= $525.91
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9486 + -0.0017 × 431 + 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(6.2538)
= $519.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.9486 + -0.0017 × 431 – 2 × 0.0131)
= Exp(6.2016)
= $493.52
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 45.69% per annum.
- LMT price at the close of October 9, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.