Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.50% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $223.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,057.58% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 4.0099
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0270
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 187.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0270) – 1
= 11.38%
May 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + 0.0029 × 387 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.1836)
= $178.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + 0.0029 × 387 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.0758)
= $160.09
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + 0.0029 × 471 + 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.4266)
= $227.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0099 + 0.0029 × 471 – 2 × 0.0270)
= Exp(5.3188)
= $204.14
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 187.50% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $223.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 2.2592
b = 0.0067
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0067) – 1
= 1,057.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.05%
July 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2592 + 0.0067 × 447 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.3061)
= $201.57
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2592 + 0.0067 × 447 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.2103)
= $183.16
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2592 + 0.0067 × 471 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.4672)
= $236.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y324)
= Exp(a + b × X324 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 471 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.2592 + 0.0067 × 471 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.3714)
= $215.15
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,057.58% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.