Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.11% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $189.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.82 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 159.06% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.23 (2.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 24, 2026
End date: October 15, 2026
a = 6.4169
b = -0.0027
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0027) – 1
= -62.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.05%
July 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4169 + -0.0027 × 374 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.4705)
= $237.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y258)
= Exp(a + b × X258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 374 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4169 + -0.0027 × 374 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.3747)
= $215.88
October 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4169 + -0.0027 × 457 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.2498)
= $190.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y316)
= Exp(a + b × X316 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 457 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4169 + -0.0027 × 457 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.1541)
= $173.13
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 62.11% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $189.53 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $9.82 (5.46%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 4.0554
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0164
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 159.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0164) – 1
= 6.79%
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0554 + 0.0026 × 440 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.2357)
= $187.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y303)
= Exp(a + b × X303 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 440 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0554 + 0.0026 × 440 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.1701)
= $175.93
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0554 + 0.0026 × 477 + 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.3322)
= $206.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y330)
= Exp(a + b × X330 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0554 + 0.0026 × 477 – 2 × 0.0164)
= Exp(5.2666)
= $193.75
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 159.06% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $5.23 (2.69%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.