Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.80% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $101.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.48% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 18, 2023
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 1.8542
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0266
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.80%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0266) – 1
= 11.21%
September 18, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8542 + 0.0015 × 1,603 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.3349)
= $76.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,105)
= Exp(a + b × X1,105 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,603 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8542 + 0.0015 × 1,603 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.2286)
= $68.62
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8542 + 0.0015 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.6695)
= $106.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.8542 + 0.0015 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0266)
= Exp(4.5633)
= $95.89
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.80% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was $101.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2024
End date: April 26, 2024
a = 0.0516
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0135
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0135) – 1
= 5.56%
February 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0516 + 0.0025 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.5161)
= $91.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,215)
= Exp(a + b × X1,215 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0516 + 0.0025 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.4621)
= $86.67
April 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0516 + 0.0025 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.6671)
= $106.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(0.0516 + 0.0025 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0135)
= Exp(4.6130)
= $100.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.48% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of April 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out RTX and 1,499 other stocks on our new website