Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.08% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $194.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.07% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 6, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 6.8545
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0138
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.08%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0138) – 1
= 5.68%
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8545 + -0.0037 × 387 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.4506)
= $232.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8545 + -0.0037 × 387 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.3953)
= $220.37
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8545 + -0.0037 × 433 + 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.2804)
= $196.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.8545 + -0.0037 × 433 – 2 × 0.0138)
= Exp(5.2251)
= $185.89
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.08% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $194.34 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 6.2129
b = -0.0022
s = 0.0046
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0022) – 1
= -55.07%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0046) – 1
= 1.85%
September 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2129 + -0.0022 × 414 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.3146)
= $203.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 414 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2129 + -0.0022 × 414 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.2962)
= $199.58
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2129 + -0.0022 × 433 + 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.2729)
= $194.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y298)
= Exp(a + b × X298 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 433 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.2129 + -0.0022 × 433 – 2 × 0.0046)
= Exp(5.2546)
= $191.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 55.07% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.