Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $145.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.44 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 8, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024
a = 2.6169
b = 0.0014
s = 0.0333
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0333) – 1
= 14.25%
September 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.3129)
= $74.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.1797)
= $65.35
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.9005)
= $134.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.7673)
= $117.60
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $145.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.44 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025
a = 3.5633
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0438
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.13%
March 22, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,355 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.6745)
= $107.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,355 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.4994)
= $89.96
July 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.0280)
= $152.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.8530)
= $128.12
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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