Stock Analysis on Net

RTX Corp. (NYSE:RTX) 

Stock Price Trends


Summary

Key facts

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
  • RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $145.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.44 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.

Linear Regression Model

Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi

Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e


Primary Trend

Start date: September 8, 2023
End date: October 30, 2024

a = 2.6169

b = 0.0014

s = 0.0333

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0014) – 1
= 67.05%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0333) – 1
= 14.25%

September 8, 2023 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,159 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.3129)
= $74.65

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y800)
= Exp(a + b × X800 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,159 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,159 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.1797)
= $65.35

October 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,577 + 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.9005)
= $134.36

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,088)
= Exp(a + b × X1,088 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,577 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6169 + 0.0014 × 1,577 – 2 × 0.0333)
= Exp(4.7673)
= $117.60

Description

  • The primary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
  • RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was $145.75 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.44 (12.30%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

Secondary Trend

Start date: March 22, 2024
End date: July 3, 2025

a = 3.5633

b = 0.0008

s = 0.0438

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 31.75%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0438) – 1
= 19.13%

March 22, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,355 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.6745)
= $107.17

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y935)
= Exp(a + b × X935 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,355 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.4994)
= $89.96

July 3, 2025 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(5.0280)
= $152.63

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5633 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0438)
= Exp(4.8530)
= $128.12

Description

  • The secondary trend is increasing.
  • The growth rate of the secondary trend is 31.75% per annum.
  • RTX price at the close of July 3, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
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