Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
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- Income Statement
- Balance Sheet: Assets
- Common-Size Income Statement
- DuPont Analysis: Disaggregation of ROE, ROA, and Net Profit Margin
- Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
- Dividend Discount Model (DDM)
- Operating Profit Margin since 2005
- Debt to Equity since 2005
- Price to Book Value (P/BV) since 2005
- Price to Sales (P/S) since 2005
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Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 30, 2025 was $158.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.22 (8.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.14% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 30, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.17 (0.74%).
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
September 8, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
October 30, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 67.05% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 30, 2025 was $158.40 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $14.22 (8.24%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date:
End date:
a =
b =
s =
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × ) – 1
=
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × ) – 1
=
March 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
July 22, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × + 2 × s)
= Exp( + × + 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y)
= Exp(a + b × X – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × – 2 × s)
= Exp( + × – 2 × )
= Exp()
= $
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 33.14% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of July 30, 2025 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.17 (0.74%).
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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