Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 183.14% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $223.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,125.78% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of RTX price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 15, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.0273
b = 0.0029
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0029) – 1
= 183.14%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.30%
May 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0273 + 0.0029 × 387 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.1844)
= $178.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y267)
= Exp(a + b × X267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 387 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0273 + 0.0029 × 387 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.0773)
= $160.34
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0273 + 0.0029 × 470 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.4210)
= $226.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0273 + 0.0029 × 470 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.3140)
= $203.16
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 183.14% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $223.25 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2026
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 2.1879
b = 0.0069
s = 0.0245
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0069) – 1
= 1,125.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0245) – 1
= 10.28%
July 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1879 + 0.0069 × 447 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.3060)
= $201.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 447 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1879 + 0.0069 × 447 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.2082)
= $182.76
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1879 + 0.0069 × 470 + 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.4639)
= $236.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y323)
= Exp(a + b × X323 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 470 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1879 + 0.0069 × 470 – 2 × 0.0245)
= Exp(5.3661)
= $214.02
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,125.78% per annum.
- RTX price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.