Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.50% per annum.
- GE price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $314.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,271.10% per annum.
- GE price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 24, 2026
End date: October 30, 2026
a = 6.4797
b = -0.0019
s = 0.0341
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0019) – 1
= -49.50%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0341) – 1
= 14.59%
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4797 + -0.0019 × 289 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(6.0069)
= $406.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y199)
= Exp(a + b × X199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4797 + -0.0019 × 289 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.8707)
= $354.49
October 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4797 + -0.0019 × 417 + 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.7673)
= $319.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 417 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4797 + -0.0019 × 417 – 2 × 0.0341)
= Exp(5.6311)
= $278.97
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 49.50% per annum.
- GE price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $314.73 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 22, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 2.1099
b = 0.0087
s = 0.0215
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0087) – 1
= 2,271.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0215) – 1
= 9.00%
October 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1099 + 0.0087 × 409 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.7006)
= $299.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1099 + 0.0087 × 409 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.6144)
= $274.36
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1099 + 0.0087 × 423 + 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.8220)
= $337.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y293)
= Exp(a + b × X293 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 423 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.1099 + 0.0087 × 423 – 2 × 0.0215)
= Exp(5.7359)
= $309.79
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 2,271.10% per annum.
- GE price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.