Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.64% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $319.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (0.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.45% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 4, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 7.7757
b = -0.0044
s = 0.0165
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0044) – 1
= -79.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0165) – 1
= 6.82%
August 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7757 + -0.0044 × 421 + 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(5.9731)
= $392.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 421 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7757 + -0.0044 × 421 – 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(5.9071)
= $367.64
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7757 + -0.0044 × 466 + 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(5.7768)
= $322.74
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 466 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.7757 + -0.0044 × 466 – 2 × 0.0165)
= Exp(5.7109)
= $302.14
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 79.64% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 21, 2026 was $319.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $0.46 (0.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 7.5433
b = -0.0038
s = 0.0161
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0038) – 1
= -75.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0161) – 1
= 6.66%
August 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5433 + -0.0038 × 437 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.8941)
= $362.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5433 + -0.0038 × 437 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.8296)
= $340.23
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5433 + -0.0038 × 469 + 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.7710)
= $320.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y322)
= Exp(a + b × X322 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 469 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.5433 + -0.0038 × 469 – 2 × 0.0161)
= Exp(5.7065)
= $300.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 75.45% per annum.
- GE price at the close of September 21, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.