Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.23% per annum.
- GE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $355.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.10 (3.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.62% per annum.
- GE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of GE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 9, 2022
End date: January 21, 2026
a = 3.1865
b = 0.0016
s = 0.1004
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 79.23%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1004) – 1
= 49.40%
May 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1865 + 0.0016 × 320 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.8988)
= $49.34
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y221)
= Exp(a + b × X221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1865 + 0.0016 × 320 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(3.4973)
= $33.03
January 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1865 + 0.0016 × 1,673 + 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(6.0617)
= $429.11
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,149)
= Exp(a + b × X1,149 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,673 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1865 + 0.0016 × 1,673 – 2 × 0.1004)
= Exp(5.6602)
= $287.22
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 79.23% per annum.
- GE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was $355.12 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $11.10 (3.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2024
End date: June 22, 2026
a = 3.8509
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0813
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 49.62%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0813) – 1
= 38.43%
March 7, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8509 + 0.0011 × 988 + 2 × 0.0813)
= Exp(5.1042)
= $164.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y680)
= Exp(a + b × X680 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 988 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8509 + 0.0011 × 988 – 2 × 0.0813)
= Exp(4.7789)
= $118.98
June 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8509 + 0.0011 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0813)
= Exp(6.0281)
= $414.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8509 + 0.0011 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0813)
= Exp(5.7029)
= $299.72
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 49.62% per annum.
- GE price at the close of June 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.