Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.01% per annum.
- ON price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $70.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.39% per annum.
- ON price at the close of April 29, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.69 (3.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ON price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 6, 2023
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 6.3022
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0903
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -34.01%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0903) – 1
= 43.53%
June 6, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3022 + -0.0011 × 1,498 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.7767)
= $118.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,033)
= Exp(a + b × X1,033 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,498 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3022 + -0.0011 × 1,498 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.4153)
= $82.71
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3022 + -0.0011 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.4031)
= $81.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3022 + -0.0011 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0903)
= Exp(4.0418)
= $56.93
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 34.01% per annum.
- ON price at the close of April 29, 2024 was $70.82 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 29, 2024
End date: April 29, 2024
a = 12.0469
b = -0.0043
s = 0.0380
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0043) – 1
= -79.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0380) – 1
= 16.40%
February 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0043 × 1,766 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.4811)
= $88.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,217)
= Exp(a + b × X1,217 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,766 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0043 × 1,766 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.3292)
= $75.89
April 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0043 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.2215)
= $68.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(12.0469 + -0.0043 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0380)
= Exp(4.0696)
= $58.53
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 79.39% per annum.
- ON price at the close of April 29, 2024 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.69 (3.94%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current ON price trends.
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