Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.85% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of May 11, 2020 was $82.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $828.87 (90.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of May 11, 2020 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.04 (26.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MAR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2017
End date: February 1, 2018
a = 2.7626
b = 0.0022
s = 0.0118
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0022) – 1
= 125.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0118) – 1
= 4.82%
October 26, 2017 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7626 + 0.0022 × 898 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7905)
= $120.36
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7626 + 0.0022 × 898 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.7434)
= $114.83
February 1, 2018 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y687)
= Exp(a + b × X687 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7626 + 0.0022 × 996 + 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(5.0092)
= $149.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y687)
= Exp(a + b × X687 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 996 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.7626 + 0.0022 × 996 – 2 × 0.0118)
= Exp(4.9622)
= $142.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 125.85% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of May 11, 2020 was $82.31 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $828.87 (90.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 26, 2017
End date: March 6, 2020
a = 4.8289
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0825
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0825) – 1
= 39.08%
October 26, 2017 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8289 + 0.0000 × 898 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.0178)
= $151.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y621)
= Exp(a + b × X621 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8289 + 0.0000 × 898 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.6879)
= $108.63
March 6, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8289 + 0.0000 × 1,760 + 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(5.0408)
= $154.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,213)
= Exp(a + b × X1,213 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,760 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8289 + 0.0000 × 1,760 – 2 × 0.0825)
= Exp(4.7109)
= $111.16
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 0.98% per annum.
- MAR price at the close of May 11, 2020 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $29.04 (26.08%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
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