Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.06% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of November 5, 2021 was $408.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.68% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of November 5, 2021 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.44 (1.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ILMN price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 23, 2021
End date: October 22, 2021
a = 11.4882
b = -0.0030
s = 0.0345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0030) – 1
= -67.06%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.81%
July 23, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4882 + -0.0030 × 1,719 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.3269)
= $559.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,184)
= Exp(a + b × X1,184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,719 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4882 + -0.0030 × 1,719 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.1888)
= $487.28
October 22, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 + 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4882 + -0.0030 × 1,810 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.0501)
= $424.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,810 – 2 × s)
= Exp(11.4882 + -0.0030 × 1,810 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.9120)
= $369.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 67.06% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of November 5, 2021 was $408.14 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $1.69 (0.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 7, 2021
End date: November 4, 2021
a = 3.6707
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0067
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 60.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0067) – 1
= 2.73%
October 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6707 + 0.0013 × 1,795 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.0165)
= $410.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,795 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6707 + 0.0013 × 1,795 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(5.9896)
= $399.25
November 4, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6707 + 0.0013 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.0529)
= $425.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.6707 + 0.0013 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0067)
= Exp(6.0260)
= $414.04
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 60.68% per annum.
- ILMN price at the close of November 5, 2021 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $6.44 (1.55%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current ILMN price trends.
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