Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 261.83% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $200.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.31% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 27, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of FSLR price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2022
End date: April 25, 2023
a = -0.9325
b = 0.0035
s = 0.1309
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0035) – 1
= 261.83%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1309) – 1
= 68.83%
April 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9325 + 0.0035 × 1,451 + 2 × 0.1309)
= Exp(4.4416)
= $84.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,001)
= Exp(a + b × X1,001 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9325 + 0.0035 × 1,451 – 2 × 0.1309)
= Exp(3.9179)
= $50.29
April 25, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9325 + 0.0035 × 1,821 + 2 × 0.1309)
= Exp(5.7452)
= $312.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,821 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.9325 + 0.0035 × 1,821 – 2 × 0.1309)
= Exp(5.2215)
= $185.21
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 261.83% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 27, 2023 was $200.83 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 9, 2022
End date: April 27, 2023
a = 1.0995
b = 0.0023
s = 0.0676
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0023) – 1
= 135.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0676) – 1
= 31.04%
August 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0995 + 0.0023 × 1,562 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.8968)
= $133.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,077)
= Exp(a + b × X1,077 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,562 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0995 + 0.0023 × 1,562 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(4.6265)
= $102.15
April 27, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0995 + 0.0023 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.5087)
= $246.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.0995 + 0.0023 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0676)
= Exp(5.2384)
= $188.36
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 135.31% per annum.
- FSLR price at the close of April 27, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current FSLR price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website