Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE:FICO)

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio exhibited notable volatility over the analyzed periods. Initially, there was a decline from 57.71 to 27.12 between December 2019 and September 2021, indicating a reduction in valuation relative to earnings. Following this trough, the ratio increased sharply, peaking at 99.26 by September 2024. In the subsequent quarters up to June 2025, the ratio decreased again to 57.97, suggesting fluctuating investor sentiment or earnings performance.

Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Ratio

A similar pattern to the P/E ratio is observed in the P/OP ratio. It declined steadily from 46.59 in December 2019 to a low of 16.86 in March 2022, indicating a significant compression in valuation relative to operating profits. Post-March 2022, the ratio rose markedly, reaching a peak of 69.38 by September 2024. The last two recorded quarters reveal a downward correction to 41.44 by June 2025.

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio demonstrated an initial decrease from 9.99 to 7.2 between December 2019 and March 2022, reflecting a moderation in valuation relative to sales. Subsequently, the ratio trended upwards significantly, climbing to 29.64 by September 2024, the highest in the observed timeframe. This suggests heightened market optimism or sales growth expectations. A decline follows afterwards, settling at 19.01 by June 2025.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio data is incomplete for the later periods, but from available figures it shows a decline from 49.58 in December 2019 to 40.58 in September 2020. Subsequently, the ratio increased substantially to 116.79 by March 2021, indicating a significant rise in market valuation relative to the book value of the company. The absence of data beyond this point precludes further trend analysis.

The analysis of the quarterly financial data indicates notable trends in the share price, earnings per share (EPS), and price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio over the observed periods.

Share Price

The share price demonstrates a general upward trajectory with certain periods of volatility. Initially, the price decreased from approximately $410 to around $357 in early 2020, followed by a recovery and subsequent growth reaching $496 by the first quarter of 2021. However, a notable dip occurred in the second half of 2021, with the share price falling to around $389 in the third quarter of 2021. From 2022 onwards, a strong upward momentum is observed, with the price peaking beyond $2,000 in late 2024, before a decline towards approximately $1,528 by the end of 2025. This pattern suggests phases of rapid appreciation interspersed with corrections.

Earnings per Share (EPS)

The EPS shows a consistent and steady increase throughout the timeline. Starting at $7.10 in late 2019, EPS rose steadily each quarter, reaching $26.36 by mid-2025. This growth reflects improving profitability and operational performance, indicating sustained earnings expansion even during periods when share price volatility was present.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio exhibits significant fluctuations, reflecting varying market valuations relative to earnings. Starting at a high level of approximately 58 at the end of 2019, the ratio decreased to a low near 22 in the first quarter of 2022, indicating a period where earnings growth outpaced share price increases or where the market applied a more conservative valuation. Subsequently, the P/E ratio escalated sharply, peaking around 99 in late 2024, concurrent with the peak in share price. Towards the end of the timeline, the P/E ratio fell back to approximately 58, suggesting a normalization of market expectations or a correction following pronounced price appreciation.

Overall, the data show robust earnings growth with fluctuating market valuations. The substantial increase in share price over the medium term aligns with rising EPS, although the variations in P/E ratio indicate changing investor sentiment and market conditions affecting how share prices relate to fundamental earnings.

The analyzed financial data reveals several notable trends in the share price, operating profit per share, and the price-to-operating profit (P/OP) ratio over multiple quarterly periods.

Share Price

The share price exhibited significant fluctuations and an overall upward trajectory throughout the observed periods. Initially, the price decreased from 409.89 US$ to a low of 356.99 US$ within the first two quarters, followed by a recovery and steady rise reaching a peak of 1284.27 US$ by the end of 2023. Subsequently, the share price experienced volatility but generally maintained relatively high values above 1500 US$, though it declined to 1527.8 US$ at the end of 2025. The highest noted share price was 2090.63 US$ in early 2025, marking a substantial increase compared to the starting period.

Operating Profit Per Share

The operating profit per share demonstrated a consistent positive trend, increasing almost monotonically across the quarters. Starting from 8.8 US$ at the end of 2019, it rose steadily quarter over quarter, reaching 36.86 US$ by the end of 2025. This steady improvement suggests increased profitability on a per-share basis over time, reflecting effective operational performance and possibly higher revenues or improved margins.

Price-to-Operating Profit Ratio (P/OP)

The P/OP ratio showed considerable variability, reflecting fluctuating investor valuation relative to operating profitability. Early in the dataset, the ratio declined significantly from 46.59 to 21.03, indicative of either an undervaluation of the share price relative to operating profits or growth in operating earnings outpacing the share price. Post-2020, the ratio exhibited a rising trend, reaching peaks near 69.38, suggesting that the market price increased disproportionately relative to operating profit at times, potentially signaling investor optimism or speculative valuation. Toward the final periods, the ratio decreased again to approximately 41.44, indicating a correction or recalibration of market expectations in relation to operating profit.

Overall, the financial data reflects a company growing its operating profitability steadily, while share price movements and valuation ratios through the P/OP metric indicate periods of market optimism, correction, and volatility. The divergence between the steady growth of operating profit per share and the fluctuating P/OP ratio suggests that external factors, market sentiment, or industry-specific conditions may have significantly influenced share price valuations during the observed timeframe.

Share Price

The share price demonstrates notable volatility over the observed periods. Initially, it shows fluctuations around the 350 to 500 US$ range, with intermittent peaks and troughs. Starting from late 2022, a strong upward trend is evident, culminating in a substantial increase reaching over 2000 US$ in late 2024. However, by mid-2025, the share price experiences a decline from this peak, settling around 1500 US$. This suggests significant market optimism followed by a correction phase.

Sales Per Share

Sales per share exhibit a steady and consistent growth throughout the timeline. Beginning at approximately 41 US$ at the end of 2019, sales per share gradually increase each quarter, surpassing 80 US$ by mid-2025. The progression is smooth without abrupt changes, indicating stable business expansion and increasing revenue generation per share over time.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio experiences considerable fluctuations in the earlier periods, initially decreasing from close to 10 down to around 7, then rising again to over 11 by early 2023. From 2023 onwards, the ratio sees a pronounced and rapid escalation, reaching almost 30 in late 2024 before softening to just above 19 by mid-2025. This pattern indicates that the market valuation of the company relative to its sales per share inflates significantly in recent years, reflecting heightened investor expectations or possibly premium valuation multiples. The correction seen in mid-2025 suggests a tempering of these valuations.

Summary of Trends

The data reveals a strong correlation between rising sales per share and increasing share price, with the share price generally reacting with greater volatility. The steady improvement in sales per share implies ongoing operational growth and revenue enhancement. However, the P/S ratio's sharp deviations point towards dynamic market sentiment and valuation adjustments, especially noticeable during the last two years when the valuation multiples soared sharply and then partially normalized. This suggests that while the company's financial performance on a per-share basis is robust, market pricing has been subject to speculative factors and subsequent corrections.

Share Price Trend

The share price exhibited notable volatility over the observed periods. Initially, it started at $409.89 and experienced fluctuations throughout 2020 and 2021, with lows near $356.99 and highs around $513.61. Beginning in late 2022, the share price demonstrated a strong upward trajectory, reaching a peak of $2,090.63 by the end of 2024. Following this peak, a decline occurred, with the price decreasing to approximately $1,527.80 by mid-2025. Despite some fluctuations, the overall trend from late 2022 onward shows considerable growth in market valuation.

Book Value Per Share (BVPS) Dynamics

The book value per share showed a deteriorating trend across the entire timeline. Early in the dataset, BVPS hovered around positive values, beginning at $8.27 and remaining positive through much of 2020, peaking at $11.38. However, starting from late 2020, the BVPS turned negative and continued to decline sharply, reaching -$58.22 by mid-2025. The persistent negative book value per share over multiple quarters suggests ongoing erosion of net assets per share, which may reflect accumulated losses or significant intangible assets adjustment.

Price-to-Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio was notably high and unstable early in the period. Initially, it ranged from approximately 40.58 to 116.79 in 2020 and 2021, indicating that the market price was substantially higher than the book value per share. Data for P/BV in later periods is missing, likely due to the negative book value per share, which renders this metric less meaningful or undefined. The elevated P/BV ratio early on suggests high investor confidence or growth expectations despite weakening book value.

Interpretation and Financial Insights

The company’s share price has appreciated significantly over time, especially during late 2022 to 2024, indicating positive market sentiment or future growth prospects. However, the continuous decline and eventual negative book value per share highlight underlying financial challenges or asset revaluations. The divergence between market price appreciation and deteriorating book value suggests intangible factors driving market valuation beyond historical asset measures. Investors may be valuing future earnings potential, technological leadership, or intangible assets not captured by traditional book value.

Summary

In summary, the company experienced a considerable increase in share price over several years amid declining and ultimately negative book value per share, resulting in high and eventually indeterminate price-to-book ratios. This pattern reflects a complex financial profile characterized by market optimism and potential structural financial concerns. Continuous negative book values warrant further examination of the company's asset quality and earnings sustainability despite positive market performance.