Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE:FICO)

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

From the available data starting December 31, 2018, the P/E ratio shows notable fluctuations. Initially, the ratio rose from 49.99 in late 2018 to a peak of 56.83 by the end of 2019. Subsequently, it declined to a low of 22.83 during mid-2021, indicating a period of relatively higher earnings or lower share price. From mid-2021 onwards, the ratio recovered and trended upward, reaching a maximum of 99.26 by mid-2025, followed by a decrease to 57.97 at the end of 2025. This suggests increased market expectations of growth or implied valuation multiples over the more recent periods.

Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Ratio

The P/OP ratio follows a pattern broadly similar to P/E, beginning in late 2018 with values around 37.88 increasing to near 45.39 at the end of 2019. It then decreased sharply to a low of 16.86 in mid-2021. Following this trough, the ratio climbed substantially, peaking at 69.38 near mid-2025 before dropping again to 41.44 at the close of 2025. These changes align with shifts in market valuation relative to operating profitability, indicating fluctuating investor sentiment regarding operating earnings performance and prospects.

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio exhibits a generally upward trend over the entire period. Starting at 8.28 in late 2018, it rose moderately through 2019 to just over 10.97 by the end of 2020. The ratio then experienced steady growth, surging to 29.64 by mid-2025 before sliding back to 19.01 at the end of 2025. This suggests a strong increase in market valuation relative to sales over time, especially in recent years, reflecting investor confidence in revenue growth or margin expansion potentials despite some valuation corrections at the latest date.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio data is limited but reveals a significant increase from 27.77 at the end of 2018 to an extremely high value of 116.79 by the end of the first quarter of 2021. This steep increase indicates a substantial rise in market capitalization relative to book value during this timeframe. However, post-March 2021 data is unavailable, so trends beyond this point cannot be assessed. The initially observed surge highlights elevated market expectations or possibly reduced book value relative to stock price.

Overall Observations

The valuation multiples across earnings, operating profit, and sales demonstrate considerable volatility with pronounced peaks and troughs indicating shifts in market perception and company performance over the analyzed periods. Notably, the ratios generally trended higher towards the most recent quarters, with P/E and P/OP ratios reaching significant highs in the 2024-2025 timeframe, followed by moderate declines. The P/S ratio’s sustained increase suggests growing investor willingness to pay for sales, and the dramatic rise in P/BV observed until early 2021 speaks to changes in balance sheet value or market sentiment during that window. The patterns reflect a dynamic valuation environment influenced by operational results, investor expectations, and possibly broader market conditions.

Share Price Trend

The share price exhibited a general upward trend over the period analyzed, starting at $217.73 and experiencing substantial growth, peaking above $2000 by late 2024. Despite some volatility, including a notable dip in late 2021 and fluctuations in early 2025, the overall movement was strongly positive with significant appreciation, especially from 2022 onwards. The increase in share price reflects heightened market confidence or favorable company performance over these years.

Earnings Per Share (EPS) Development

Earnings per share showed a consistent and steady increase from the period data began, with an initial EPS of 6.63 rising progressively to 26.36 by the most recent quarter. This indicates robust profitability growth, with earnings improving roughly fourfold over the timeframe. The consistent rise in EPS suggests effective operational management and potential expansion of profit margins or revenue streams.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio Dynamics

The P/E ratio demonstrated considerable variability, fluctuating between approximately 22 and near 100 across different quarters. Initially, the ratio hovered in the mid-40s to high-50s range but then decreased to the lower 20s around late 2020 and early 2021, indicative of either stronger earnings growth outpacing share price increases or market repricing. Conversely, the ratio climbed sharply after 2022, reaching peaks above 80, implying that share price increased faster than earnings or that market expectations for future growth intensified substantially. This elevated P/E level toward the end of the period may reflect high investor optimism or possibly overvaluation risks.

Correlation of Share Price and EPS

While both share price and EPS increased over time, periods of divergence between P/E ratio and these metrics were evident. The EPS growth was steady, whereas share price showed some abrupt increases leading to elevated P/E ratios, especially in recent quarters. This could suggest market sentiment driving valuations beyond what earnings alone would justify temporarily, or anticipation of future growth not yet reflected in current earnings.

Share Price Trend

The share price exhibited a general upward trend over the analyzed period, starting at $217.73 at the end of 2018 and reaching notable highs of $2090.63 in September 2024. Throughout the intervals, there were periods of significant growth, specifically between late 2022 and late 2024, where the price surged from approximately $646.05 to above $2000. Some volatility was observed, with fluctuations occurring, for example, drops after peaks in late 2021 and early 2025. Despite these, the overall movement was strongly positive, indicating increasing market valuation and possibly investor confidence.

Operating Profit Per Share (OPPS)

The operating profit per share was first noted in late 2019 at $8.75, showing a consistent and steady increase throughout the period. By the end of 2024, OPPS reached $36.86, which marks more than a fourfold increase from the initial available figure. The growth in operating profit per share suggests improving operational efficiency and profitability on a per-share basis, indicative of strong financial performance.

Price-to-Operating Profit Ratio (P/OP)

The P/OP ratio showed significant fluctuation within the time frame. Initial values around the end of 2019 were near 38, increasing to peaks above 46 and declining to as low as approximately 16.9 in late 2021, reflecting relative changes in share price versus operating profit per share. Afterward, the ratio generally rose again, peaking over 69 in mid-2025 before declining toward 41 at the end of the period. These swings imply varying investor sentiment, valuation adjustments, or market conditions affecting the pricing relative to profitability. Notably, periods with lower P/OP correspond partly with sharp increases in operating profit, suggesting phases of improving profitability outpacing price gains, and vice versa.

Overall Analysis

The data displays a company with a strong upward trajectory in both market value and profitability over the years. The significant boost in share price in the most recent years parallels ongoing increases in operating profit per share, signifying healthy business expansion or effective management strategies. However, the volatility in the P/OP ratio illustrates fluctuations in market valuation relative to earnings, which could be attributed to external market factors, investor expectations, or temporary discrepancies between price and earnings growth. These factors may warrant further monitoring to assess valuation risks despite the positive underlying financial performance.

Share Price Trends

The share price exhibited a generally upward trajectory from December 31, 2018, through June 30, 2025, despite some fluctuations. Initially, there was a steady increase from $217.73 to $491.15 by December 31, 2020. This was followed by a period of volatility with the price dipping to $375.28 by March 31, 2022, before a sharp rise ensued, reaching a peak of $2090.63 at December 31, 2024. The price then declined to $1527.8 by December 31, 2025. Overall, the share price showed strong growth, with notable volatility in the latter periods.

Sales per Share Evolution

Sales per share data became available starting December 31, 2019, showing a consistent upward trend throughout the periods analyzed. Beginning at $40.06, it increased steadily to $80.36 by June 30, 2025. This indicates an approximate doubling of sales per share over this timeframe, reflecting strong revenue growth on a per-share basis.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio Dynamics

The price-to-sales ratio showed considerable fluctuation over the observed quarters. Initially recorded at 8.28 on December 31, 2019, it experienced an increase and decrease pattern with values ranging between approximately 7.2 and 10.97 up to September 30, 2021. From then onwards, the ratio climbed sharply, reaching a high of 29.64 by December 31, 2024, before a decline to 19.01 was observed by June 30, 2025. This pattern suggests that market valuation relative to sales per share became increasingly aggressive, particularly from 2022 onwards, before partially correcting in 2025.

Overall Financial Insights

The data reveals that both sales per share and share price experienced significant growth over the period, evidencing positive operational performance. However, the rising P/S ratios imply that the market was willing to pay increasingly higher premiums for each dollar of sales, possibly indicating high growth expectations or speculative valuation. The volatility in share prices and the P/S ratio in recent quarters suggests some market uncertainty or profit-taking activities. The growth consistency in sales per share contrasts with the more variable market pricing, signifying that company fundamentals strengthened steadily, while market sentiment showed more fluctuation.

The analysis of the financial metrics over the observed periods reveals several noteworthy trends and patterns. The share price of the company demonstrates a general upward trajectory, with fluctuations visible at certain intervals. Starting at approximately $217.73 at the end of 2018, the share price escalates significantly, reaching a peak above $1,280 by the end of 2023. Despite some periods of decline, notably around late 2021 and early 2025, the overall pattern is one of strong appreciation in market value.

Conversely, the book value per share (BVPS) exhibits a declining trend over the same timeframe. Initially rising from $7.84 at the end of 2018 to a peak near $11.38 in late 2020, the BVPS declines sharply afterward, becoming negative from late 2021 onward. This negative book value reaches a low of approximately -$58.22 by mid-2025, indicating that the company's liabilities may be substantially exceeding its assets on a per-share basis in recent periods.

When assessing the price-to-book value (P/BV) ratio, an initially high ratio increases dramatically in the periods where book value turns negative, though data for this ratio is limited beyond early 2021. Early ratios range from about 27.77 to 116.79, suggesting that the market price per share is valued many times higher than the underlying book value per share. The extremely high P/BV ratios prior to the lack of subsequent data may imply significant market optimism or expectations of future growth despite deteriorating book value metrics.

Overall, the juxtaposition of increasing share prices against decreasing and eventually negative book values raises important considerations. The market appears to price the company with strong growth or intangible asset expectations that are not reflected in the book value. Such disparity could indicate reliance on factors such as intellectual property, brand value, or anticipated earnings growth rather than traditional balance sheet strength. The negative BVPS in recent years may warrant closer analysis to understand underlying operational or accounting factors affecting equity valuation.