Fair Isaac Corp. (NYSE:FICO) 

The financial ratios reveal several notable trends and fluctuations over the reported periods. The analysis focuses on the Price to Earnings (P/E), Price to Operating Profit (P/OP), Price to Sales (P/S), and Price to Book Value (P/BV) ratios, which provide insights into market valuation relative to earnings, operating profit, sales, and book value respectively.

Price to Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio first appears in the fourth quarter of 2018 at 49.99 and demonstrates variability but no clear directional trend until the end of 2020, fluctuating between roughly 39.89 and 57.71. Beginning in 2021, the ratio presents a declining trend through the third quarter, reaching a low of 22.83 before rebounding in late 2021 and 2022 to above 40. However, from 2022 onward, the P/E ratio generally trends upwards again, accelerating significantly in 2023 and early 2024 to reach values exceeding 80, peaking near 99.26 at the end of 2023. This suggests increased market optimism or higher valuation multiples relative to earnings in recent periods.

Price to Operating Profit (P/OP) Ratio

The P/OP ratio closely mirrors the P/E trend, commencing at 37.88 in late 2018 and showing a similar pattern of volatility. Initial periods show a moderate increase up to about 46.59, followed by a sharp decline to 16.86 in mid-2021. Subsequent quarters see a steady rise with a notable acceleration from 2022 onwards, peaking at 69.38 toward the end of 2023. The increase indicates market prices growing faster than operating profits, reflecting potentially elevated expectations regarding future profitability or growth prospects.

Price to Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio starts at 8.28 in late 2018 and exhibits a steady upward trajectory throughout the entire period. The growth is relatively smooth with only minor fluctuations, rising from below 10 in early 2019 to values over 25 by early 2025. This consistent increase signals escalating market valuations relative to sales, suggestive of investor confidence in the company’s revenue-generating capacity and growth potential.

Price to Book Value (P/BV) Ratio

The P/BV ratio data is limited to the period between late 2018 and early 2021. During this interval, the ratio increases substantially from 27.77 at the end of 2018 to a peak at 116.79 in the first quarter of 2021. The sharp rise reveals significantly higher market valuations compared to book value over this particular period, indicating strong investor demand and possibly intangible asset value recognition. No data is available for subsequent quarters to assess if this trend continued.

In summary, the valuation ratios indicate an overarching trend of increasing market valuation multiples relative to earnings, operating profitability, and sales over the analyzed periods. The sharp rises in P/E and P/OP ratios since 2022 could point to optimistic market sentiment or expected growth, while the steadily increasing P/S ratio supports a consistent positive view on sales performance. The historically high P/BV ratio during the earlier part of the series suggests a prior phase of market premium over book value, although recent data is missing to confirm its continuation.

The analyzed financial data reveal several notable trends in the company's market valuation and earnings performance over the reported periods.

Share Price

The share price exhibits a strong upward trajectory from December 31, 2018, through the end of the reporting period, despite some volatility. Starting at approximately $218, the price experienced consistent growth with brief periods of decline or slower increases, such as the drop in late 2021 and early 2022. From late 2022 onward, the share price surged sharply, reaching a peak near $2091 by the end of 2024 before slightly declining in early 2025. Overall, this trend indicates a robust appreciation in market value over the years, suggesting increasing investor confidence or company performance expectations.

Earnings per Share (EPS)

EPS figures, available from late 2019, demonstrate a steady increase throughout the quarters. Beginning at 6.63 US dollars, EPS grew consistently, reaching 23.71 US dollars by March 31, 2025. This trend reflects continuous improvement in profitability on a per-share basis. Minor fluctuations are noted around late 2022, where some slight declines occur, yet the general long-term progression remains upward.

Price-to-Earnings (P/E) Ratio

The P/E ratio presents a more volatile pattern compared to share price and EPS. Starting near 50 in late 2019, the ratio varied significantly, reaching a low near 22 by the end of 2021, which corresponds with relatively strong EPS growth but a dip in share price. Subsequently, the P/E ratio rose again, peaking above 99 in late 2024, suggesting that the market placed higher valuation multiples on earnings during this peak. The elevated P/E ratios in the latter part of the timeline could indicate heightened investor expectations, potential overvaluation, or anticipation of future earnings growth despite already high earnings.

Overall Insights

The concurrent increase in share price and EPS indicates a fundamentally sound growth in company earnings alongside growing investor interest. However, the significant volatility in the P/E ratio suggests fluctuating market sentiment or external factors influencing valuation beyond basic earnings performance. The sharp rise in share price towards the end of the analyzed period, coupled with a high P/E, may warrant attention to potential market exuberance or expectations of accelerated future growth.

The analysis of the financial metrics over the observed periods shows distinct trends in share price, operating profit per share, and the price-to-operating profit ratio (P/OP) for the company.

Share Price (US$)

The share price demonstrated a general upward trajectory with notable fluctuations. Starting at $217.73 at the end of 2018, the price increased significantly to $491.15 by the end of 2020. Despite some volatility in 2021, where the price dropped to a low of $388.61 in September, it recovered and surged to a peak of $1284.27 by the end of 2023. The price continued to show strength with values surpassing $1800 in early 2025, reaching $1961.5 by the end of that quarter, indicating strong investor confidence and growth expectations.

Operating Profit per Share (US$)

Operating profit per share data was unavailable prior to late 2019; however, from that point forward, a consistent and steady increase is evident. Beginning at $8.75 in September 2019, the metric rose almost monotonically, reaching $33.38 by March 2025. This suggests improving operational efficiency or growing profitability on a per-share basis over time.

Price to Operating Profit Ratio (P/OP)

The P/OP ratio fluctuated considerably throughout the period. Initially, it was relatively high, with values such as 37.88 in September 2019 and peaking at 46.59 in December 2019. The ratio then declined, reaching a low of 16.86 in June 2022, indicating the share price was more reasonably valued relative to operating profit at that point. However, from late 2022 onwards, the P/OP ratio increased markedly, peaking at 69.38 in December 2024, before slightly moderating to 58.76 in March 2025. This pattern shows periods of potentially overvalued stock relative to operating profitability, especially in the latter part of the timeline, possibly reflecting market optimism or expectations for future growth.

Overall, the data reflects a company with growing profitability per share alongside a share price that has generally increased but with volatility in valuation multiples. The marked increase in share price and higher P/OP ratios in recent periods might indicate elevated market expectations, which should be monitored for sustainability relative to actual profit growth.

The analyzed financial data over the quarterly periods indicates several noteworthy trends in share price, sales per share, and price-to-sales (P/S) ratio.

Share Price

The share price exhibits an overall upward trajectory with periods of volatility. Initially, from late 2018 to the end of 2019, the share price rose steadily from approximately $217.73 to $409.89. A moderate drop occurred during early 2020, likely influenced by external market conditions, with a low around $356.99 in March 2020. Subsequently, the price experienced significant growth reaching $491.15 by the end of 2020 and continued an upward movement into 2021, peaking around $513.61 in mid-2021. However, a decline followed later in 2021, dipping to about $375.28 by early 2022. Thereafter, a strong recovery and robust growth in share price ensued, especially from late 2022 onward, creating new highs exceeding $1284.27 by the end of 2023 and surpassing $2080 in late 2024, before a minor pullback in early 2025.

Sales per Share

Sales per share data begins from late 2019 and shows a steady, consistent increase over the entire reported period. Starting at $40.06 per share, the figure rises gradually each quarter, reaching $75.61 by early 2025. This steady progression in sales per share suggests sustained revenue growth that is less volatile than the share price itself.

Price-to-Sales (P/S) Ratio

The P/S ratio fluctuates more markedly compared to sales per share, indicating changing investor sentiment and valuation multiples. From its early values around 8.28 in late 2019, the ratio increased and decreased through various cycles—peaking near 10.97 in early 2021 before experiencing a decline to around 7.2 by mid-2021. Following this, the P/S ratio generally trended upward, reaching elevated levels around 13.88 to 15.36 towards the end of 2023. The ratio surged markedly thereafter, hitting highs of approximately 20.58 in late 2023 and further expanding to peaks surpassing 29 by late 2024. The slight decrease to roughly 24.89 in early 2025 may indicate some moderation in valuation multiples despite continued growth.

In summary, the data reveals consistent growth in sales per share, underpinning the company’s expanding revenue base. The share price, while generally rising, displays periods of volatility that likely reflect broader market conditions and investor sentiment shifts. The P/S ratio swings suggest fluctuating market valuation, with particularly high multiples in recent periods signaling increased investor optimism or expectations for future growth. This could point to a premium pricing environment or potential overvaluation considerations requiring ongoing monitoring.

The share price exhibits a general upward trend over the observed periods despite some fluctuations. Starting at $217.73 at the end of 2018, the price rises steadily to reach beyond $1280 by the end of 2023, with peaks and troughs along the way. Particularly notable are the sharp increases observed towards the latter periods, with prices exceeding $1600 in mid-2024 and climbing above $2000 by the last recorded date in March 2025. However, there are intermittent periods of decline or consolidation, such as the downward movement from early 2021 through late 2021, before resuming upward momentum.

Book value per share (BVPS) demonstrates a contrasting trajectory compared to share price. Initial values show moderate growth, from $7.84 at the end of 2018 up to $11.38 in the third quarter of 2020. However, from late 2020 onwards, there is a marked decline in BVPS, with values turning negative beginning in 2021 and continuing to deteriorate throughout the subsequent quarters. By the end of the observed timeline, BVPS has declined to approximately -$46, indicating erosion in the company's net asset value on a per-share basis.

The price-to-book value ratio (P/BV) starts at a relatively high range between 27 and 37 in the early periods, reflecting the premium market participants place on the company relative to its book value. P/BV ratios escalate substantially in 2021, peaking at approximately 117 at mid-year, though data for the ratio after this point is missing. Such high P/BV levels during periods when BVPS is negative suggest that the share price is driven more by market expectations and investor sentiment than by underlying net asset values.

Share Price

Overall significant growth from approximately $218 to over $2000 within the timeframe.

Periods of moderate declines or stagnation mainly during 2021.

Acceleration in price growth evident from late 2022 through early 2025.

Book Value Per Share (BVPS)

Moderate initial increase up to Q3 2020, reaching $11.38.

Subsequent rapid decline turning negative from 2021 onwards.

Continued deterioration through to a low of approximately -$46 by early 2025.

Price-to-Book Ratio (P/BV)

High ratios throughout, ranging from approximately 28 to 49 in earlier periods.

Sharp spike in 2021 reaching over 116 at mid-year.

Absence of data beyond Q3 2021 limits analysis for later periods, but earlier trends indicate market valuation increasingly detached from book value.

In summary, the financial data reflect a company with rising market valuation as indicated by the share price, encountering significant declines in book value per share which suggests issues at the asset or equity level. The extreme rise in price-to-book ratio during negative book value periods indicates that market optimism and growth expectations may be driving the share price independently of fundamental net asset value. This divergence emphasizes the importance of assessing market sentiment and growth potential alongside traditional valuation metrics in evaluating the company's financial health and investor perception.