Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.99% per annum.
- PM price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $188.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.46 (9.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.77% per annum.
- PM price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2025
End date: March 4, 2026
a = 4.7622
b = 0.0015
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0015) – 1
= 73.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.24%
October 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7622 + 0.0015 × 128 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.0402)
= $154.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7622 + 0.0015 × 128 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(4.8727)
= $130.67
March 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7622 + 0.0015 × 281 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.2724)
= $194.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y193)
= Exp(a + b × X193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7622 + 0.0015 × 281 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.1048)
= $164.81
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 73.99% per annum.
- PM price at the close of August 6, 2026 was $188.05 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $20.46 (9.81%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 2, 2025
End date: August 6, 2026
a = 4.8978
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0519
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 32.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0519) – 1
= 23.07%
October 2, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 128 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8978 + 0.0008 × 128 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.1010)
= $164.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y89)
= Exp(a + b × X89 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 128 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8978 + 0.0008 × 128 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(4.8934)
= $133.41
August 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8978 + 0.0008 × 436 + 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.3401)
= $208.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y300)
= Exp(a + b × X300 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 436 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8978 + 0.0008 × 436 – 2 × 0.0519)
= Exp(5.1326)
= $169.45
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 32.77% per annum.
- PM price at the close of August 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.