Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.59% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $208.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 300.05% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PM price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 4.5118
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0180
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.59%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0180) – 1
= 7.48%
August 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5118 + 0.0019 × 362 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.2431)
= $189.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y249)
= Exp(a + b × X249 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 362 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5118 + 0.0019 × 362 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.1710)
= $176.09
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5118 + 0.0019 × 426 + 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.3661)
= $214.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.5118 + 0.0019 × 426 – 2 × 0.0180)
= Exp(5.2939)
= $199.12
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.59% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 3, 2026 was $208.03 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 20, 2026
End date: November 3, 2026
a = 3.7257
b = 0.0038
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0038) – 1
= 300.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.93%
October 20, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7257 + 0.0038 × 412 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.3099)
= $202.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y284)
= Exp(a + b × X284 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7257 + 0.0038 × 412 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.2713)
= $194.68
November 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7257 + 0.0038 × 426 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.3631)
= $213.39
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 426 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7257 + 0.0038 × 426 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.3245)
= $205.31
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 300.05% per annum.
- PM price at the close of November 3, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.