Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.74% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $138.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.97% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 4, 2026
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 5.4027
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0207
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -32.74%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0207) – 1
= 8.62%
February 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y188)
= Exp(a + b × X188 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4027 + -0.0011 × 274 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.1464)
= $171.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y188)
= Exp(a + b × X188 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4027 + -0.0011 × 274 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(5.0637)
= $158.17
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4027 + -0.0011 × 419 + 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.9888)
= $146.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4027 + -0.0011 × 419 – 2 × 0.0207)
= Exp(4.9061)
= $135.12
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 32.74% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $138.68 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 16, 2026
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 5.5983
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0155
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.97%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0155) – 1
= 6.41%
April 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y237)
= Exp(a + b × X237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 345 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5983 + -0.0016 × 345 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.0818)
= $161.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y237)
= Exp(a + b × X237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 345 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5983 + -0.0016 × 345 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(5.0196)
= $151.36
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5983 + -0.0016 × 419 + 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.9643)
= $143.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y287)
= Exp(a + b × X287 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 419 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5983 + -0.0016 × 419 – 2 × 0.0155)
= Exp(4.9022)
= $134.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 43.97% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.