Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.86% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $143.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.12 (9.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 278.85% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PEP price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 3, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 5.2462
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0248
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -27.86%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0248) – 1
= 10.41%
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 182 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2462 + -0.0009 × 182 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(5.1329)
= $169.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y125)
= Exp(a + b × X125 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 182 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2462 + -0.0009 × 182 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(5.0338)
= $153.52
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2462 + -0.0009 × 437 + 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.9047)
= $134.92
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y302)
= Exp(a + b × X302 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 437 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2462 + -0.0009 × 437 – 2 × 0.0248)
= Exp(4.8056)
= $122.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 27.86% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $143.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $12.12 (9.20%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 1, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 3.2780
b = 0.0036
s = 0.0154
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0036) – 1
= 278.85%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.34%
October 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2780 + 0.0036 × 422 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.8488)
= $127.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2780 + 0.0036 × 422 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.7873)
= $119.97
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2780 + 0.0036 × 463 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.9984)
= $148.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 463 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.2780 + 0.0036 × 463 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(4.9369)
= $139.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 278.85% per annum.
- PEP price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.