Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.82% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $61.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.39% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of October 13, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.09 (0.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2025
End date: September 17, 2026
a = 3.9420
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0302
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 20.82%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0302) – 1
= 12.84%
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y44)
= Exp(a + b × X44 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 62 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9420 + 0.0005 × 62 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.0345)
= $56.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y44)
= Exp(a + b × X44 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 62 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9420 + 0.0005 × 62 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(3.9138)
= $50.09
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9420 + 0.0005 × 380 + 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.1993)
= $66.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9420 + 0.0005 × 380 – 2 × 0.0302)
= Exp(4.0786)
= $59.06
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 20.82% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of October 13, 2026 was $61.50 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: July 28, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 4.4088
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0173
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0173) – 1
= 7.18%
July 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4088 + -0.0008 × 329 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.1794)
= $65.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y226)
= Exp(a + b × X226 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 329 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4088 + -0.0008 × 329 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.1101)
= $60.95
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4088 + -0.0008 × 402 + 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.1208)
= $61.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 402 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4088 + -0.0008 × 402 – 2 × 0.0173)
= Exp(4.0515)
= $57.48
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 25.39% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of October 13, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.09 (0.14%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.