Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $70.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.04 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 681.98% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 23, 2024
End date: April 19, 2024
a = 6.6441
b = -0.0013
s = 0.0153
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1
= -38.65%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1
= 6.31%
January 23, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6441 + -0.0013 × 1,733 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.3551)
= $77.87
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,193)
= Exp(a + b × X1,193 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,733 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6441 + -0.0013 × 1,733 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2939)
= $73.25
April 19, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6441 + -0.0013 × 1,820 + 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.2386)
= $69.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,820 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6441 + -0.0013 × 1,820 – 2 × 0.0153)
= Exp(4.1774)
= $65.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 25, 2024 was $70.80 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $2.04 (2.97%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: April 25, 2024
a = -6.0306
b = 0.0056
s = 0.0149
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0056) – 1
= 681.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0149) – 1
= 6.15%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0306 + 0.0056 × 1,812 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.2093)
= $67.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,248)
= Exp(a + b × X1,248 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,812 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0306 + 0.0056 × 1,812 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.1496)
= $63.41
April 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0306 + 0.0056 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.2882)
= $72.83
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,258)
= Exp(a + b × X1,258 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.0306 + 0.0056 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0149)
= Exp(4.2285)
= $68.61
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 681.98% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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