## Stock Price Trends

Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.

### Summary

#### Key facts

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $71.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 961.68% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.

### Linear Regression Model

Model equation:

Y_{i} = α + β × X_{i} + ε_{i}

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} + 2 × s)

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{i}) = Exp(a + b × X_{i} – 2 × s)

where:

i - observation number

Y_{i} - natural logarithm of MDLZ price

X_{i} - time index, 1 day interval

σ - standard deviation of ε_{i}

a - estimator of α

b - estimator of β

s - estimator of σ

Exp() - calculates the exponent of e

### Primary Trend

Start date: January 23, 2024

End date: April 19, 2024

a = 6.6374

b = -0.0013

s = 0.0153

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × -0.0013) – 1

= -38.65%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0153) – 1

= 6.31%

#### January 23, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,190})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,190} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,728 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,728 + 2 × 0.0153)

= Exp(4.3551)

= $77.87

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,190})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,190} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,728 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,728 – 2 × 0.0153)

= Exp(4.2939)

= $73.25

#### April 19, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,251})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,251} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,815 + 2 × s)

= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,815 + 2 × 0.0153)

= Exp(4.2386)

= $69.31

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,251})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,251} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,815 – 2 × s)

= Exp(6.6374 + -0.0013 × 1,815 – 2 × 0.0153)

= Exp(4.1774)

= $65.20

#### Description

- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 38.65% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was $71.94 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $3.64 (5.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.

### Secondary Trend

Start date: April 15, 2024

End date: April 30, 2024

a = -7.5305

b = 0.0065

s = 0.0100

Annual growth rate:

Exp(365 × b) – 1

= Exp(365 × 0.0065) – 1

= 961.68%

Price channel spread:

Exp(4 × s) – 1

= Exp(4 × 0.0100) – 1

= 4.07%

#### April 15, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,247})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,247} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,811 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,811 + 2 × 0.0100)

= Exp(4.2110)

= $67.42

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,247})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,247} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,811 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,811 – 2 × 0.0100)

= Exp(4.1711)

= $64.79

#### April 30, 2024 calculations

Top border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} + 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)

= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0100)

= Exp(4.3080)

= $74.30

Bottom border of price channel:

Exp(Y_{1,258})

= Exp(a + b × X_{1,258} – 2 × s)

= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)

= Exp(-7.5305 + 0.0065 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0100)

= Exp(4.2682)

= $71.39

#### Description

- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 961.68% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 30, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.

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