Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.63% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 10, 2026 was $59.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.13% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 20, 2023
End date: April 10, 2026
a = 4.3502
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0561
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.63%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0561) – 1
= 25.13%
April 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3502 + -0.0002 × 738 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(4.3451)
= $77.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y510)
= Exp(a + b × X510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 738 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3502 + -0.0002 × 738 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(4.1209)
= $61.61
April 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3502 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(4.1725)
= $64.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3502 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0561)
= Exp(3.9483)
= $51.85
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.63% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 10, 2026 was $59.00 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 26, 2025
End date: April 10, 2026
a = 4.8853
b = -0.0005
s = 0.0458
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0005) – 1
= -16.13%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0458) – 1
= 20.11%
March 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8853 + -0.0005 × 1,444 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.2812)
= $72.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y994)
= Exp(a + b × X994 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,444 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8853 + -0.0005 × 1,444 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.0979)
= $60.21
April 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8853 + -0.0005 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(4.0980)
= $60.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8853 + -0.0005 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0458)
= Exp(3.9148)
= $50.14
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 16.13% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of April 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.