Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 221.27% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $66.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.10% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 28, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 2.8177
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 221.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.63%
September 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8177 + 0.0032 × 391 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.1047)
= $60.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y269)
= Exp(a + b × X269 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8177 + 0.0032 × 391 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.0311)
= $56.33
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8177 + 0.0032 × 435 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.2454)
= $69.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8177 + 0.0032 × 435 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.1718)
= $64.83
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 221.27% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 11, 2026 was $66.70 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 12, 2026
End date: November 11, 2026
a = 3.1412
b = 0.0024
s = 0.0182
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0024) – 1
= 143.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0182) – 1
= 7.57%
October 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1412 + 0.0024 × 405 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.1633)
= $64.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y279)
= Exp(a + b × X279 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1412 + 0.0024 × 405 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.0904)
= $59.76
November 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1412 + 0.0024 × 435 + 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.2363)
= $69.15
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y301)
= Exp(a + b × X301 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 435 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.1412 + 0.0024 × 435 – 2 × 0.0182)
= Exp(4.1634)
= $64.29
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 143.10% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of November 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.