Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.49% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $60.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.60% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDLZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 4, 2023
End date: April 29, 2026
a = 4.3317
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0557
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -5.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0557) – 1
= 24.97%
April 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3317 + -0.0002 × 643 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.3436)
= $76.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y443)
= Exp(a + b × X443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 643 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3317 + -0.0002 × 643 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.1207)
= $61.60
April 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3317 + -0.0002 × 1,764 + 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(4.1702)
= $64.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,212)
= Exp(a + b × X1,212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,764 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3317 + -0.0002 × 1,764 – 2 × 0.0557)
= Exp(3.9473)
= $51.79
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 5.49% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of June 29, 2026 was $60.15 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 3, 2025
End date: June 29, 2026
a = 3.0652
b = 0.0006
s = 0.0322
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0006) – 1
= 23.60%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0322) – 1
= 13.76%
November 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0652 + 0.0006 × 1,587 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(4.0509)
= $57.45
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,091)
= Exp(a + b × X1,091 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,587 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0652 + 0.0006 × 1,587 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(3.9220)
= $50.50
June 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0652 + 0.0006 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(4.1891)
= $65.96
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.0652 + 0.0006 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0322)
= Exp(4.0601)
= $57.98
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 23.60% per annum.
- MDLZ price at the close of June 29, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.