Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.64% per annum.
- KO price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $91.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.29 (4.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 398.02% per annum.
- KO price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of KO price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 4.7941
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0100
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -25.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0100) – 1
= 4.06%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + -0.0008 × 365 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.5178)
= $91.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y251)
= Exp(a + b × X251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + -0.0008 × 365 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.4779)
= $88.05
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + -0.0008 × 415 + 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.4772)
= $87.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y286)
= Exp(a + b × X286 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 415 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7941 + -0.0008 × 415 – 2 × 0.0100)
= Exp(4.4374)
= $84.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 25.64% per annum.
- KO price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $91.78 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.29 (4.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 30, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 2.6474
b = 0.0044
s = 0.0112
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0044) – 1
= 398.02%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0112) – 1
= 4.57%
September 30, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + 0.0044 × 408 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.4643)
= $86.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y281)
= Exp(a + b × X281 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 408 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + 0.0044 × 408 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.4197)
= $83.07
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + 0.0044 × 422 + 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.5259)
= $92.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.6474 + 0.0044 × 422 – 2 × 0.0112)
= Exp(4.4812)
= $88.34
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 398.02% per annum.
- KO price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.