Stock Analysis on Net

Philip Morris International Inc. (NYSE:PM)

$24.99

Economic Value Added (EVA)

Microsoft Excel

EVA is registered trademark of Stern Stewart.

Economic value added or economic profit is the difference between revenues and costs,where costs include not only expenses, but also cost of capital.

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Economic Profit

Philip Morris International Inc., economic profit calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)1
Cost of capital2
Invested capital3
 
Economic profit4

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 NOPAT. See details »

2 Cost of capital. See details »

3 Invested capital. See details »

4 2024 Calculation
Economic profit = NOPAT – Cost of capital × Invested capital
= × =


The period under review demonstrates fluctuating financial performance as measured by economic profit. Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) initially increased, then declined over the five-year span. Simultaneously, the cost of capital exhibited some volatility, while invested capital showed a more substantial increase before stabilizing and decreasing slightly. These factors collectively influenced the trend in economic profit.

NOPAT Trend
Net operating profit after taxes rose from US$8,950 million in 2020 to US$10,188 million in 2021, representing a significant increase. However, NOPAT subsequently decreased to US$9,635 million in 2022, US$8,804 million in 2023, and further to US$8,281 million in 2024. This indicates a consistent downward trend in operating profitability after accounting for taxes.
Cost of Capital Fluctuation
The cost of capital experienced moderate fluctuations. It increased from 9.54% in 2020 to 10.11% in 2021, then decreased to 9.70% in 2022 and 9.39% in 2023. A slight increase to 10.15% was observed in 2024. These changes suggest shifts in the perceived risk or required return for the company’s investments.
Invested Capital Dynamics
Invested capital decreased from US$31,958 million in 2020 to US$29,268 million in 2021. A substantial increase followed, reaching US$47,466 million in 2022 and US$51,440 million in 2023. In 2024, invested capital decreased slightly to US$48,390 million. This pattern suggests significant capital deployment in 2022 and 2023, followed by a modest reduction in 2024.
Economic Profit Analysis
Economic profit mirrored the NOPAT trend, initially increasing from US$5,902 million in 2020 to US$7,230 million in 2021. It then decreased to US$5,033 million in 2022, US$3,973 million in 2023, and US$3,369 million in 2024. The decline in economic profit, despite fluctuations in the cost of capital, is primarily attributable to the decreasing NOPAT. While invested capital increased significantly in 2022 and 2023, the corresponding NOPAT was insufficient to maintain the earlier levels of economic profit.

Overall, the observed trends indicate a weakening of economic profitability despite periods of substantial capital investment. The consistent decline in NOPAT is a key factor driving the reduction in economic profit, suggesting potential challenges in maintaining operational efficiency or market competitiveness.


Net Operating Profit after Taxes (NOPAT)

Philip Morris International Inc., NOPAT calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Net earnings attributable to PMI
Deferred income tax expense (benefit)1
Increase (decrease) in allowances2
Increase (decrease) in accrued product warranty3
Increase (decrease) in restructuring related liabilities4
Increase (decrease) in equity equivalents5
Interest expense
Interest expense, operating lease liability6
Adjusted interest expense
Tax benefit of interest expense7
Adjusted interest expense, after taxes8
Interest income
Investment income, before taxes
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income9
Investment income, after taxes10
Net income (loss) attributable to noncontrolling interest
Net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Elimination of deferred tax expense. See details »

2 Addition of increase (decrease) in allowances.

3 Addition of increase (decrease) in accrued product warranty.

4 Addition of increase (decrease) in restructuring related liabilities.

5 Addition of increase (decrease) in equity equivalents to net earnings attributable to PMI.

6 2024 Calculation
Interest expense on capitalized operating leases = Operating lease liability × Discount rate
= × =

7 2024 Calculation
Tax benefit of interest expense = Adjusted interest expense × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

8 Addition of after taxes interest expense to net earnings attributable to PMI.

9 2024 Calculation
Tax expense (benefit) of investment income = Investment income, before tax × Statutory income tax rate
= × 21.00% =

10 Elimination of after taxes investment income.


The financial data indicates a fluctuating but generally declining trend in the profitability metrics over the analyzed periods. Both net earnings attributable to the company and net operating profit after taxes (NOPAT) show variations that merit close attention.

Net Earnings Attributable to PMI
Starting at $8,056 million in 2020, net earnings increased to a peak of $9,109 million in 2021, reflecting a strong growth phase. However, subsequent years show a downward trajectory, with earnings declining to $9,048 million in 2022, then more sharply to $7,813 million in 2023, and further down to $7,057 million in 2024. This sequence suggests a notable slowdown in profitability, especially from 2022 onwards.
Net Operating Profit After Taxes (NOPAT)
NOPAT follows a similar pattern, beginning at $8,950 million in 2020 and rising to a high of $10,188 million in 2021. A decline ensues thereafter, decreasing to $9,635 million in 2022, $8,804 million in 2023, and finally $8,281 million in 2024. The reduction in operating profit after tax signals that operational efficiency or operating conditions may have deteriorated during the latter period.

Overall, the data reflects a peak in both earnings and operating profits in 2021, followed by a consistent downward trend through 2024. This pattern could indicate emerging challenges in sustaining profitability, necessitating further analysis of operational factors, market conditions, or cost structures contributing to this decline.


Cash Operating Taxes

Philip Morris International Inc., cash operating taxes calculation

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
12 months ended: Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Provision for income taxes
Less: Deferred income tax expense (benefit)
Add: Tax savings from interest expense
Less: Tax imposed on investment income
Cash operating taxes

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).


Provision for income taxes
The provision for income taxes exhibited fluctuations over the observed periods. Starting at $2,377 million in 2020, the figure increased to $2,671 million in 2021, representing a notable rise. However, it subsequently decreased to $2,244 million in 2022, indicating a reduction in tax provisions that year. Following this dip, provisions increased again in 2023 to $2,339 million and continued the upward trend more sharply in 2024, reaching $3,017 million. Overall, the pattern shows variability with a significant increase in the most recent year.
Cash operating taxes
Cash operating taxes displayed an overall upward trend from 2020 to 2024. The amount was $2,656 million in 2020 and increased steadily to $2,825 million in 2021. A slight decline occurred in 2022 to $2,606 million, but this was followed by substantial increases in 2023 and 2024, reaching $2,899 million and $3,381 million respectively. The consistent growth, especially in the final two years, reflects an increasing cash tax burden despite minor fluctuations earlier.

Invested Capital

Philip Morris International Inc., invested capital calculation (financing approach)

US$ in millions

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Short-term borrowings
Current portion of long-term debt
Long-term debt, excluding current portion
Operating lease liability1
Total reported debt & leases
Total PMI stockholders’ deficit
Net deferred tax (assets) liabilities2
Allowances3
Accrued product warranty4
Restructuring related liabilities5
Equity equivalents6
Accumulated other comprehensive (income) loss, net of tax7
Noncontrolling interests
Adjusted total PMI stockholders’ deficit
Construction in progress8
Invested capital

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Addition of capitalized operating leases.

2 Elimination of deferred taxes from assets and liabilities. See details »

3 Addition of allowance for doubtful accounts receivable.

4 Addition of accrued product warranty.

5 Addition of restructuring related liabilities.

6 Addition of equity equivalents to total PMI stockholders’ deficit.

7 Removal of accumulated other comprehensive income.

8 Subtraction of construction in progress.


Total reported debt & leases
The total reported debt and leases exhibit a fluctuating trend over the examined periods. Initially, there was a decrease from 32,243 million USD at the end of 2020 to 28,342 million USD in 2021. However, this was followed by a notable increase in 2022, reaching 43,737 million USD, and then a further rise to 48,562 million USD in 2023. In 2024, the figure slightly declined to 46,299 million USD. Overall, the debt levels have increased substantially after the initial drop, reflecting a significant rise in financial obligations in recent years.
Total PMI stockholders’ deficit
The stockholders’ deficit showed an improvement from -12,567 million USD in 2020 to -8,957 million USD in 2022, indicating a reduction in the deficit over these years. However, this improvement was reversed in 2023 and 2024, with the deficit increasing to -11,225 million USD and further to -11,750 million USD, respectively. This pattern suggests a temporary recovery in equity position was followed by a deterioration in the latest two years.
Invested capital
Invested capital decreased from 31,958 million USD in 2020 to 29,268 million USD in 2021, showing a contraction in invested resources. Subsequently, a sharp increase is observed in 2022, rising to 47,466 million USD, and further to 51,440 million USD in 2023. In 2024, there is a slight decrease to 48,390 million USD. The data indicates an expansion in invested capital after 2021, suggesting increased investment activities or asset base growth during this period, with a minor reduction in the most recent year.

Cost of Capital

Philip Morris International Inc., cost of capital calculations

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »

Capital (fair value)1 Weights Cost of capital
Equity2 ÷ = × =
Debt, including finance lease obligations3 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Operating lease liability4 ÷ = × × (1 – 21.00%) =
Total:

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 US$ in millions

2 Equity. See details »

3 Debt, including finance lease obligations. See details »

4 Operating lease liability. See details »


Economic Spread Ratio

Philip Morris International Inc., economic spread ratio calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Invested capital2
Performance Ratio
Economic spread ratio3
Benchmarks
Economic Spread Ratio, Competitors4
Coca-Cola Co.
Mondelēz International Inc.
PepsiCo Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 Invested capital. See details »

3 2024 Calculation
Economic spread ratio = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Invested capital
= 100 × ÷ =

4 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The economic spread ratio exhibited a fluctuating pattern over the five-year period. Initially, the ratio demonstrated growth, followed by a consistent decline. Economic profit decreased year-over-year from 2020 to 2024, while invested capital showed an initial decrease, a substantial increase, and then a slight decrease.

Economic Spread Ratio Trend
The economic spread ratio increased from 18.47% in 2020 to a peak of 24.70% in 2021. Subsequently, a clear downward trend emerged, with the ratio declining to 10.60% in 2022, 7.72% in 2023, and further to 6.96% in 2024. This indicates a diminishing ability to generate returns exceeding the cost of capital.
Economic Profit
Economic profit began at US$5,902 million in 2020 and rose to US$7,230 million in 2021. However, it then experienced a consistent decline, reaching US$5,033 million in 2022, US$3,973 million in 2023, and US$3,369 million in 2024. This suggests a weakening in the company’s overall profitability relative to its capital employed.
Invested Capital
Invested capital decreased from US$31,958 million in 2020 to US$29,268 million in 2021. A significant increase was observed in 2022, rising to US$47,466 million, followed by a further increase to US$51,440 million in 2023. In 2024, invested capital slightly decreased to US$48,390 million. The substantial increase in invested capital in 2022 and 2023, coupled with the declining economic profit, likely contributed to the observed decrease in the economic spread ratio.

The combined effect of decreasing economic profit and fluctuating invested capital resulted in the observed decline in the economic spread ratio. While invested capital saw considerable growth in the later years of the period, it did not translate into a corresponding increase in economic profit, leading to a reduced spread.


Economic Profit Margin

Philip Morris International Inc., economic profit margin calculation, comparison to benchmarks

Microsoft Excel
Dec 31, 2024 Dec 31, 2023 Dec 31, 2022 Dec 31, 2021 Dec 31, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Economic profit1
Net revenues
Performance Ratio
Economic profit margin2
Benchmarks
Economic Profit Margin, Competitors3
Coca-Cola Co.
Mondelēz International Inc.
PepsiCo Inc.

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2024-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-12-31).

1 Economic profit. See details »

2 2024 Calculation
Economic profit margin = 100 × Economic profit ÷ Net revenues
= 100 × ÷ =

3 Click competitor name to see calculations.


The economic profit margin demonstrates a clear downward trend over the five-year period. While initially strong, profitability as a percentage of revenue has decreased consistently. Economic profit itself also exhibits a declining pattern, though less pronounced than the margin.

Economic Profit Margin
In 2020, the economic profit margin stood at 20.57%. This figure increased to a peak of 23.02% in 2021, representing the highest level of profitability during the observed timeframe. However, subsequent years witnessed a consistent decline. The margin decreased to 15.85% in 2022, further to 11.30% in 2023, and reached 8.89% in 2024. This represents a substantial reduction in economic profit generated per dollar of revenue.
Economic Profit
Economic profit began at US$5,902 million in 2020 and rose to US$7,230 million in 2021, aligning with the peak in the economic profit margin. A decrease to US$5,033 million was observed in 2022. This decline continued in 2023, with economic profit reported at US$3,973 million, and further decreased to US$3,369 million in 2024. While still positive, the diminishing economic profit suggests a weakening ability to generate returns exceeding the cost of capital.

The concurrent decline in both economic profit margin and absolute economic profit indicates that the company’s ability to translate revenue into economic value is diminishing. The rate of revenue growth does not appear to be offsetting the decline in profitability, as evidenced by the decreasing margin. Further investigation into the underlying drivers of this trend, such as cost increases or pricing pressures, would be warranted.