Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.98% per annum.
- T price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.29% per annum.
- T price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 14, 2023
End date: July 25, 2024
a = 1.2812
b = 0.0009
s = 0.0325
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0009) – 1
= 38.98%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0325) – 1
= 13.88%
July 14, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2812 + 0.0009 × 1,449 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(2.6530)
= $14.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y998)
= Exp(a + b × X998 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,449 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2812 + 0.0009 × 1,449 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(2.5230)
= $12.47
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2812 + 0.0009 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(2.9930)
= $19.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2812 + 0.0009 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0325)
= Exp(2.8630)
= $17.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 38.98% per annum.
- T price at the close of July 25, 2024 was $19.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 11, 2024
End date: July 25, 2024
a = -0.1333
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0146
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 85.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0146) – 1
= 6.03%
April 11, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1333 + 0.0017 × 1,721 + 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(2.8040)
= $16.51
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,185)
= Exp(a + b × X1,185 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,721 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1333 + 0.0017 × 1,721 – 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(2.7454)
= $15.57
July 25, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1333 + 0.0017 × 1,826 + 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(2.9814)
= $19.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,826 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.1333 + 0.0017 × 1,826 – 2 × 0.0146)
= Exp(2.9228)
= $18.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 85.29% per annum.
- T price at the close of July 25, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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