Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.45% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 23, 2026 was $28.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.45 (10.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.22% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 23, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.19 (4.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 23, 2023
End date: September 30, 2025
a = 1.6031
b = 0.0011
s = 0.0530
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0011) – 1
= 48.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0530) – 1
= 23.63%
May 23, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y545)
= Exp(a + b × X545 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6031 + 0.0011 × 790 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(2.5642)
= $12.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y545)
= Exp(a + b × X545 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 790 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6031 + 0.0011 × 790 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(2.3521)
= $10.51
September 30, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6031 + 0.0011 × 1,651 + 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(3.4961)
= $32.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,135)
= Exp(a + b × X1,135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,651 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.6031 + 0.0011 × 1,651 – 2 × 0.0530)
= Exp(3.2840)
= $26.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 48.45% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 23, 2026 was $28.76 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.45 (10.71%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 13, 2025
End date: February 3, 2026
a = 3.5904
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0504
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0504) – 1
= 22.32%
February 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5904 + -0.0002 × 1,422 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.3993)
= $29.94
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y978)
= Exp(a + b × X978 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,422 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5904 + -0.0002 × 1,422 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.1978)
= $24.48
February 3, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5904 + -0.0002 × 1,777 + 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.3265)
= $27.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,221)
= Exp(a + b × X1,221 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5904 + -0.0002 × 1,777 – 2 × 0.0504)
= Exp(3.1250)
= $22.76
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.22% per annum.
- T price at the close of March 23, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $1.19 (4.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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