Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 179.46% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $24.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.96 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.11% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 17, 2026
End date: September 16, 2026
a = 2.0379
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0349
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 179.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0349) – 1
= 14.98%
June 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0379 + 0.0028 × 352 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.0988)
= $22.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y243)
= Exp(a + b × X243 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 352 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0379 + 0.0028 × 352 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(2.9592)
= $19.28
September 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0379 + 0.0028 × 443 + 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.3550)
= $28.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.0379 + 0.0028 × 443 – 2 × 0.0349)
= Exp(3.2154)
= $24.91
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 179.46% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 7, 2026 was $24.47 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.96 (7.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2026
End date: October 7, 2026
a = 3.8757
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0179
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -41.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0179) – 1
= 7.41%
August 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + -0.0015 × 420 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.3020)
= $27.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y289)
= Exp(a + b × X289 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 420 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + -0.0015 × 420 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.2305)
= $25.29
October 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + -0.0015 × 464 + 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.2382)
= $25.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y320)
= Exp(a + b × X320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 464 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8757 + -0.0015 × 464 – 2 × 0.0179)
= Exp(3.1667)
= $23.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 41.11% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.