Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.46% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $23.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.27 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.49% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of T price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 4, 2026
End date: September 25, 2026
a = 2.5261
b = 0.0019
s = 0.0441
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0019) – 1
= 101.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0441) – 1
= 19.30%
June 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5261 + 0.0019 × 267 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(3.1267)
= $22.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y184)
= Exp(a + b × X184 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 267 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5261 + 0.0019 × 267 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(2.9502)
= $19.11
September 25, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5261 + 0.0019 × 380 + 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(3.3435)
= $28.32
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y262)
= Exp(a + b × X262 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 380 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.5261 + 0.0019 × 380 – 2 × 0.0441)
= Exp(3.1670)
= $23.74
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 101.46% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $23.44 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $1.27 (5.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 24, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 3.9934
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0253
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.49%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0253) – 1
= 10.64%
August 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 348 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9934 + -0.0021 × 348 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(3.3142)
= $27.50
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 348 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9934 + -0.0021 × 348 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(3.2131)
= $24.86
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9934 + -0.0021 × 401 + 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(3.2030)
= $24.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y277)
= Exp(a + b × X277 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 401 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.9934 + -0.0021 × 401 – 2 × 0.0253)
= Exp(3.1019)
= $22.24
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.49% per annum.
- T price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.