Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 71.55% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $44.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.58% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of VZ price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 31, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 5.1451
b = -0.0034
s = 0.0220
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0034) – 1
= -71.55%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0220) – 1
= 9.19%
August 31, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 355 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1451 + -0.0034 × 355 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(3.9663)
= $52.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y244)
= Exp(a + b × X244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 355 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1451 + -0.0034 × 355 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(3.8785)
= $48.35
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1451 + -0.0034 × 399 + 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(3.8148)
= $45.37
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1451 + -0.0034 × 399 – 2 × 0.0220)
= Exp(3.7269)
= $41.55
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 71.55% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of October 14, 2026 was $44.42 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 11, 2026
End date: October 14, 2026
a = 5.4452
b = -0.0042
s = 0.0227
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0042) – 1
= -78.58%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0227) – 1
= 9.52%
September 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4452 + -0.0042 × 366 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.9458)
= $51.72
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y252)
= Exp(a + b × X252 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 366 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4452 + -0.0042 × 366 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.8548)
= $47.22
October 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4452 + -0.0042 × 399 + 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.8065)
= $44.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y275)
= Exp(a + b × X275 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4452 + -0.0042 × 399 – 2 × 0.0227)
= Exp(3.7155)
= $41.08
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 78.58% per annum.
- VZ price at the close of October 14, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.