Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.15% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $159.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.78% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 28, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.6793
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0299
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.15%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0299) – 1
= 12.70%
August 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6793 + -0.0037 × 392 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.2860)
= $197.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 392 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6793 + -0.0037 × 392 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.1665)
= $175.29
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6793 + -0.0037 × 441 + 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(5.1044)
= $164.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6793 + -0.0037 × 441 – 2 × 0.0299)
= Exp(4.9848)
= $146.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 74.15% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 16, 2026 was $159.10 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2026
End date: October 16, 2026
a = 6.0713
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0292
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -56.78%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0292) – 1
= 12.40%
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0713 + -0.0023 × 412 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(5.1829)
= $178.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0713 + -0.0023 × 412 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(5.0660)
= $158.54
October 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0713 + -0.0023 × 441 + 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(5.1163)
= $166.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y304)
= Exp(a + b × X304 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 441 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0713 + -0.0023 × 441 – 2 × 0.0292)
= Exp(4.9994)
= $148.32
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 56.78% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.