Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.18% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $175.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.29% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (0.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 2, 2023
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 3.7597
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0280
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 33.18%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0280) – 1
= 11.83%
June 2, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,404 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7597 + 0.0008 × 1,404 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.9177)
= $136.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y969)
= Exp(a + b × X969 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,404 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7597 + 0.0008 × 1,404 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(4.8058)
= $122.22
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7597 + 0.0008 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(5.2473)
= $190.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.7597 + 0.0008 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0280)
= Exp(5.1355)
= $169.95
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 33.18% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $175.53 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 5, 2024
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 2.8218
b = 0.0013
s = 0.0198
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0013) – 1
= 61.29%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0198) – 1
= 8.25%
April 5, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8218 + 0.0013 × 1,712 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.1037)
= $164.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,180)
= Exp(a + b × X1,180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,712 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8218 + 0.0013 × 1,712 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.0244)
= $152.08
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8218 + 0.0013 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.2504)
= $190.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.8218 + 0.0013 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0198)
= Exp(5.1711)
= $176.11
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 61.29% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of July 26, 2024 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.58 (0.33%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out TMUS and 1,499 other stocks on our new website