Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.89% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $165.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.55 (15.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.90% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of September 24, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.21 (2.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 29, 2025
End date: April 2, 2026
a = 5.2589
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0473
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 9.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0473) – 1
= 20.85%
October 29, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y62)
= Exp(a + b × X62 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 89 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + 0.0003 × 89 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.3766)
= $216.29
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y62)
= Exp(a + b × X62 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 89 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + 0.0003 × 89 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.1872)
= $178.97
April 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y168)
= Exp(a + b × X168 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + 0.0003 × 244 + 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.4167)
= $225.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y168)
= Exp(a + b × X168 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2589 + 0.0003 × 244 – 2 × 0.0473)
= Exp(5.2273)
= $186.28
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 9.89% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of September 24, 2026 was $165.35 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $29.55 (15.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 11, 2026
End date: July 6, 2026
a = 5.6758
b = -0.0015
s = 0.0249
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.90%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0249) – 1
= 10.48%
February 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y133)
= Exp(a + b × X133 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 194 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6758 + -0.0015 × 194 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.4277)
= $227.64
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y133)
= Exp(a + b × X133 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 194 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6758 + -0.0015 × 194 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.3281)
= $206.05
July 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6758 + -0.0015 × 339 + 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.2051)
= $182.20
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 339 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.6758 + -0.0015 × 339 – 2 × 0.0249)
= Exp(5.1055)
= $164.92
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 42.90% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of September 24, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $4.21 (2.61%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.