Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of May 12, 2026 was $193.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.48% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of May 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 6, 2025
End date: May 12, 2026
a = 6.4592
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0512
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -21.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0512) – 1
= 22.71%
February 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4592 + -0.0007 × 1,365 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(5.6645)
= $288.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y938)
= Exp(a + b × X938 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,365 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4592 + -0.0007 × 1,365 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(5.4598)
= $235.05
May 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4592 + -0.0007 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(5.3622)
= $213.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.4592 + -0.0007 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0512)
= Exp(5.1575)
= $173.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 21.33% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of May 12, 2026 was $193.30 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2026
End date: May 12, 2026
a = 9.0608
b = -0.0021
s = 0.0224
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0021) – 1
= -53.48%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0224) – 1
= 9.38%
February 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0608 + -0.0021 × 1,747 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.4430)
= $231.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,199)
= Exp(a + b × X1,199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,747 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0608 + -0.0021 × 1,747 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.3534)
= $211.32
May 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0608 + -0.0021 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.2795)
= $196.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0608 + -0.0021 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0224)
= Exp(5.1898)
= $179.44
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 53.48% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of May 12, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.