Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.92% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $164.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.95% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: September 1, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 7.1457
b = -0.0048
s = 0.0219
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0048) – 1
= -82.92%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0219) – 1
= 9.13%
September 1, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1457 + -0.0048 × 396 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.2723)
= $194.85
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y272)
= Exp(a + b × X272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1457 + -0.0048 × 396 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.1848)
= $178.55
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1457 + -0.0048 × 427 + 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.1222)
= $167.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 427 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.1457 + -0.0048 × 427 – 2 × 0.0219)
= Exp(5.0348)
= $153.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 82.92% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $164.64 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 17, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 5.5998
b = -0.0012
s = 0.0096
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0012) – 1
= -34.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0096) – 1
= 3.90%
September 17, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5998 + -0.0012 × 412 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.1336)
= $169.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y283)
= Exp(a + b × X283 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 412 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5998 + -0.0012 × 412 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0954)
= $163.26
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5998 + -0.0012 × 430 + 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.1124)
= $166.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y295)
= Exp(a + b × X295 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 430 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5998 + -0.0012 × 430 – 2 × 0.0096)
= Exp(5.0742)
= $159.84
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 34.95% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.