Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.76% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $178.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.17 (2.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 12, 2026
End date: July 2, 2026
a = 5.8451
b = -0.0016
s = 0.0242
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0016) – 1
= -43.76%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0242) – 1
= 10.16%
February 12, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 288 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8451 + -0.0016 × 288 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.4394)
= $230.31
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y198)
= Exp(a + b × X198 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 288 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8451 + -0.0016 × 288 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.3427)
= $209.07
July 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8451 + -0.0016 × 428 + 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.2187)
= $184.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8451 + -0.0016 × 428 – 2 × 0.0242)
= Exp(5.1219)
= $167.66
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 43.76% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of August 11, 2026 was $178.58 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $5.17 (2.98%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 2, 2026
End date: August 11, 2026
a = 5.5185
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0285
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -23.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0285) – 1
= 12.08%
April 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5185 + -0.0007 × 337 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.3313)
= $206.71
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y232)
= Exp(a + b × X232 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5185 + -0.0007 × 337 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.2173)
= $184.43
August 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5185 + -0.0007 × 468 + 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.2364)
= $187.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y321)
= Exp(a + b × X321 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 468 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5185 + -0.0007 × 468 – 2 × 0.0285)
= Exp(5.1223)
= $167.73
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 23.24% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of August 11, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.