Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.95% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $162.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.96 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,990.05% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of TMUS price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 13, 2026
End date: October 29, 2026
a = 6.3196
b = -0.0029
s = 0.0319
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0029) – 1
= -64.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0319) – 1
= 13.63%
August 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3196 + -0.0029 × 377 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(5.3007)
= $200.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y259)
= Exp(a + b × X259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 377 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3196 + -0.0029 × 377 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(5.1730)
= $176.44
October 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3196 + -0.0029 × 454 + 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(5.0796)
= $160.70
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y313)
= Exp(a + b × X313 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 454 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3196 + -0.0029 × 454 – 2 × 0.0319)
= Exp(4.9518)
= $141.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 64.95% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $162.01 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $4.96 (3.16%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 23, 2026
End date: November 6, 2026
a = 1.2375
b = 0.0083
s = 0.0184
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0083) – 1
= 1,990.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0184) – 1
= 7.64%
October 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2375 + 0.0083 × 448 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.0053)
= $149.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y309)
= Exp(a + b × X309 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 448 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2375 + 0.0083 × 448 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(4.9317)
= $138.61
November 6, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 + 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2375 + 0.0083 × 462 + 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.1219)
= $167.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y319)
= Exp(a + b × X319 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 462 – 2 × s)
= Exp(1.2375 + 0.0083 × 462 – 2 × 0.0184)
= Exp(5.0483)
= $155.76
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 1,990.05% per annum.
- TMUS price at the close of November 6, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.