Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.11% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of August 12, 2025 was $261.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.96% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of August 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: August 29, 2024
End date: August 12, 2025
a = 10.1522
b = -0.0024
s = 0.1334
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0024) – 1
= -59.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1334) – 1
= 70.51%
August 29, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1522 + -0.0024 × 1,477 + 2 × 0.1334)
= Exp(6.8004)
= $898.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,017)
= Exp(a + b × X1,017 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,477 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1522 + -0.0024 × 1,477 – 2 × 0.1334)
= Exp(6.2667)
= $526.75
August 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1522 + -0.0024 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1334)
= Exp(5.9478)
= $382.90
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(10.1522 + -0.0024 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1334)
= Exp(5.4141)
= $224.56
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 59.11% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of August 12, 2025 was $261.57 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 7, 2025
End date: August 12, 2025
a = 14.9406
b = -0.0052
s = 0.1141
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0052) – 1
= -84.96%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1141) – 1
= 57.85%
March 7, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9406 + -0.0052 × 1,667 + 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(6.5173)
= $676.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,146)
= Exp(a + b × X1,146 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,667 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9406 + -0.0052 × 1,667 – 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(6.0608)
= $428.72
August 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9406 + -0.0052 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(5.6973)
= $298.06
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(14.9406 + -0.0052 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1141)
= Exp(5.2408)
= $188.82
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 84.96% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of August 12, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out UNH and 1,499 other stocks on our new website