Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 196.27% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of September 4, 2026 was $108.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.52% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of September 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 8, 2026
End date: September 2, 2026
a = 3.4234
b = 0.0030
s = 0.0332
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0030) – 1
= 196.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.22%
May 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4234 + 0.0030 × 326 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.4599)
= $86.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y225)
= Exp(a + b × X225 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4234 + 0.0030 × 326 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.3270)
= $75.71
September 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4234 + 0.0030 × 443 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.8080)
= $122.49
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y305)
= Exp(a + b × X305 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 443 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.4234 + 0.0030 × 443 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(4.6751)
= $107.24
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 196.27% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of September 4, 2026 was $108.33 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 21, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 7.3222
b = -0.0059
s = 0.0093
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0059) – 1
= -88.52%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0093) – 1
= 3.81%
August 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3222 + -0.0059 × 431 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.7847)
= $119.66
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y297)
= Exp(a + b × X297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 431 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3222 + -0.0059 × 431 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.7473)
= $115.27
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3222 + -0.0059 × 445 + 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.7016)
= $110.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3222 + -0.0059 × 445 – 2 × 0.0093)
= Exp(4.6642)
= $106.09
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 88.52% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of September 4, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.