Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 157.95% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $100.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.14 (11.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.35% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ABT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2026
End date: September 4, 2026
a = 3.5745
b = 0.0026
s = 0.0404
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0026) – 1
= 157.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0404) – 1
= 17.55%
April 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5745 + 0.0026 × 317 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.4784)
= $88.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y218)
= Exp(a + b × X218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 317 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5745 + 0.0026 × 317 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.3167)
= $74.94
September 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5745 + 0.0026 × 445 + 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.8107)
= $122.81
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.5745 + 0.0026 × 445 – 2 × 0.0404)
= Exp(4.6490)
= $104.48
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 157.95% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $100.10 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $13.14 (11.60%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: October 2, 2026
a = 6.3460
b = -0.0037
s = 0.0171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0037) – 1
= -74.35%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0171) – 1
= 7.09%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3460 + -0.0037 × 428 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.7849)
= $119.69
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y294)
= Exp(a + b × X294 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 428 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3460 + -0.0037 × 428 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.7164)
= $111.77
October 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3460 + -0.0037 × 473 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.6172)
= $101.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y326)
= Exp(a + b × X326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 473 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3460 + -0.0037 × 473 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.5487)
= $94.51
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 74.35% per annum.
- ABT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $0.02 (0.02%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.