Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.33% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.20 (20.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.32% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 30, 2020
End date: April 20, 2023
a = 5.1126
b = -0.0006
s = 0.0714
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0006) – 1
= -19.33%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0714) – 1
= 33.06%
December 30, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y360)
= Exp(a + b × X360 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1126 + -0.0006 × 520 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.9494)
= $141.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y360)
= Exp(a + b × X360 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 520 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1126 + -0.0006 × 520 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.6638)
= $106.04
April 20, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1126 + -0.0006 × 1,361 + 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.4545)
= $86.02
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y939)
= Exp(a + b × X939 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,361 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1126 + -0.0006 × 1,361 – 2 × 0.0714)
= Exp(4.1689)
= $64.65
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 19.33% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was $78.70 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $13.20 (20.15%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2022
End date: July 26, 2024
a = 4.3952
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0560
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= -0.32%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0560) – 1
= 25.12%
June 9, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3952 + 0.0000 × 1,046 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.4982)
= $89.86
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y723)
= Exp(a + b × X723 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,046 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3952 + 0.0000 × 1,046 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.2742)
= $71.82
July 26, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3952 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.4915)
= $89.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3952 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0560)
= Exp(4.2674)
= $71.34
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 0.32% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of July 26, 2024 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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