Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $87.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.40 (3.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.84% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 3.8622
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.37%
May 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 251 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.3466)
= $77.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 251 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2479)
= $69.96
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 391 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.5893)
= $98.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 391 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.4906)
= $89.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was $87.97 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.40 (3.72%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 18, 2026
End date: October 5, 2026
a = 4.9043
b = -0.0011
s = 0.0171
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0011) – 1
= -31.84%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0171) – 1
= 7.09%
August 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9043 + -0.0011 × 357 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.5636)
= $95.93
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y245)
= Exp(a + b × X245 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 357 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9043 + -0.0011 × 357 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.4952)
= $89.58
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9043 + -0.0011 × 405 + 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.5132)
= $91.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 405 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9043 + -0.0011 × 405 – 2 × 0.0171)
= Exp(4.4448)
= $85.18
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 31.84% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.