Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 20, 2026 was $94.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.66 (4.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of MDT price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 4, 2026
End date: September 21, 2026
a = 3.8622
b = 0.0017
s = 0.0247
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0017) – 1
= 88.27%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0247) – 1
= 10.37%
May 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 251 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.3466)
= $77.21
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y172)
= Exp(a + b × X172 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 251 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 251 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.2479)
= $69.96
September 21, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 + 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 391 + 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.5893)
= $98.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y268)
= Exp(a + b × X268 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 391 – 2 × s)
= Exp(3.8622 + 0.0017 × 391 – 2 × 0.0247)
= Exp(4.4906)
= $89.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 88.27% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 20, 2026 was $94.63 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 10, 2026
End date: October 9, 2026
a = 4.7643
b = -0.0007
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0007) – 1
= -22.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.02%
August 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7643 + -0.0007 × 349 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.5599)
= $95.58
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y239)
= Exp(a + b × X239 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7643 + -0.0007 × 349 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.4828)
= $88.48
October 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7643 + -0.0007 × 409 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.5182)
= $91.67
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y282)
= Exp(a + b × X282 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 409 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7643 + -0.0007 × 409 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.4410)
= $84.86
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 22.43% per annum.
- MDT price at the close of October 20, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $3.66 (4.03%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.