Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 342.03% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $410.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $155.16 (27.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.61% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 26, 2026
End date: June 15, 2026
a = 4.7906
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0464
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 342.03%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0464) – 1
= 20.38%
February 26, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 199 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7906 + 0.0041 × 199 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.6937)
= $296.98
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y137)
= Exp(a + b × X137 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 199 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7906 + 0.0041 × 199 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.5081)
= $246.69
June 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y212)
= Exp(a + b × X212 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 308 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7906 + 0.0041 × 308 + 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(6.1375)
= $462.89
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y212)
= Exp(a + b × X212 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 308 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.7906 + 0.0041 × 308 – 2 × 0.0464)
= Exp(5.9520)
= $384.51
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 342.03% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of September 18, 2026 was $410.95 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $155.16 (27.41%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 29, 2026
End date: September 18, 2026
a = 5.8600
b = 0.0003
s = 0.0338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0003) – 1
= 13.61%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0338) – 1
= 14.47%
April 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 261 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8600 + 0.0003 × 261 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(6.0188)
= $411.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y180)
= Exp(a + b × X180 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 261 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8600 + 0.0003 × 261 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.8837)
= $359.13
September 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8600 + 0.0003 × 403 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(6.0685)
= $432.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y278)
= Exp(a + b × X278 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8600 + 0.0003 × 403 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.9333)
= $377.41
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 13.61% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of September 18, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.