Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.04% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $432.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $128.73 (22.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 24, 2026
End date: July 14, 2026
a = 5.0126
b = 0.0032
s = 0.0565
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0032) – 1
= 218.04%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0565) – 1
= 25.35%
February 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 197 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0126 + 0.0032 × 197 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.7501)
= $314.22
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y135)
= Exp(a + b × X135 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 197 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0126 + 0.0032 × 197 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.5241)
= $250.66
July 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 337 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0126 + 0.0032 × 337 + 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(6.1939)
= $489.73
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 337 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.0126 + 0.0032 × 337 – 2 × 0.0565)
= Exp(5.9679)
= $390.68
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 218.04% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 5, 2026 was $432.00 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $128.73 (22.96%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2026
End date: November 5, 2026
a = 5.8152
b = 0.0005
s = 0.0353
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0005) – 1
= 19.39%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0353) – 1
= 15.16%
April 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y179)
= Exp(a + b × X179 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 260 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8152 + 0.0005 × 260 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(6.0120)
= $408.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y179)
= Exp(a + b × X179 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 260 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8152 + 0.0005 × 260 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.8708)
= $354.54
November 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8152 + 0.0005 × 451 + 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(6.1047)
= $447.95
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y312)
= Exp(a + b × X312 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 451 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.8152 + 0.0005 × 451 – 2 × 0.0353)
= Exp(5.9635)
= $388.99
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 19.39% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of November 5, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.