Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 362.12% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $394.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $93.99 (19.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.47% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of ELV price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 27, 2026
End date: June 15, 2026
a = 4.3801
b = 0.0042
s = 0.0424
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0042) – 1
= 362.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0424) – 1
= 18.49%
February 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y200)
= Exp(a + b × X200 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3801 + 0.0042 × 291 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.6852)
= $294.48
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y200)
= Exp(a + b × X200 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3801 + 0.0042 × 291 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.5155)
= $248.52
June 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3801 + 0.0042 × 399 + 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(6.1381)
= $463.18
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3801 + 0.0042 × 399 – 2 × 0.0424)
= Exp(5.9684)
= $390.90
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 362.12% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of August 7, 2026 was $394.20 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $93.99 (19.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 11, 2026
End date: August 7, 2026
a = 6.0775
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0345
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -8.47%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0345) – 1
= 14.79%
May 11, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0775 + -0.0002 × 364 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.0582)
= $427.59
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y250)
= Exp(a + b × X250 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 364 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0775 + -0.0002 × 364 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.9203)
= $372.51
August 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0775 + -0.0002 × 452 + 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(6.0368)
= $418.56
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y311)
= Exp(a + b × X311 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 452 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0775 + -0.0002 × 452 – 2 × 0.0345)
= Exp(5.8989)
= $364.64
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 8.47% per annum.
- ELV price at the close of August 7, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.