Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.94% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $372.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.24% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 7, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 6.6280
b = -0.0017
s = 0.0154
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0017) – 1
= -46.94%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0154) – 1
= 6.33%
July 7, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6280 + -0.0017 × 326 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(6.0928)
= $442.65
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y222)
= Exp(a + b × X222 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 326 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6280 + -0.0017 × 326 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(6.0314)
= $416.29
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6280 + -0.0017 × 403 + 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.9591)
= $387.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.6280 + -0.0017 × 403 – 2 × 0.0154)
= Exp(5.8977)
= $364.20
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 46.94% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 22, 2026 was $372.95 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 2, 2026
End date: September 22, 2026
a = 7.3315
b = -0.0035
s = 0.0116
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0035) – 1
= -72.24%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0116) – 1
= 4.74%
September 2, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3315 + -0.0035 × 383 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(6.0098)
= $407.42
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y263)
= Exp(a + b × X263 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 383 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3315 + -0.0035 × 383 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.9635)
= $388.96
September 22, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 + 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3315 + -0.0035 × 403 + 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.9396)
= $379.79
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y276)
= Exp(a + b × X276 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 403 – 2 × s)
= Exp(7.3315 + -0.0035 × 403 – 2 × 0.0116)
= Exp(5.8933)
= $362.58
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 72.24% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of September 22, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.