Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 343.17% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of June 24, 2026 was $405.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.77% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of June 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: February 23, 2026
End date: June 24, 2026
a = 4.4586
b = 0.0041
s = 0.0582
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0041) – 1
= 343.17%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0582) – 1
= 26.21%
February 23, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 272 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4586 + 0.0041 × 272 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.6845)
= $294.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y186)
= Exp(a + b × X186 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 272 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4586 + 0.0041 × 272 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.4517)
= $233.15
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4586 + 0.0041 × 393 + 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(6.1780)
= $482.03
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4586 + 0.0041 × 393 – 2 × 0.0582)
= Exp(5.9452)
= $381.92
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 343.17% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of June 24, 2026 was $405.80 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 28, 2026
End date: June 24, 2026
a = 5.2897
b = 0.0018
s = 0.0239
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0018) – 1
= 95.77%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0239) – 1
= 10.05%
April 28, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 336 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + 0.0018 × 336 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.9560)
= $386.05
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y231)
= Exp(a + b × X231 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 336 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + 0.0018 × 336 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.8602)
= $350.79
June 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + 0.0018 × 393 + 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(6.0609)
= $428.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y270)
= Exp(a + b × X270 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 393 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.2897 + 0.0018 × 393 – 2 × 0.0239)
= Exp(5.9651)
= $389.59
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 95.77% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of June 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.