Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.05% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of March 24, 2026 was $272.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.19% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of March 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: March 24, 2026
a = 8.0400
b = -0.0014
s = 0.1448
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0014) – 1
= -39.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1448) – 1
= 78.45%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0400 + -0.0014 × 1,209 + 2 × 0.1448)
= Exp(6.6896)
= $803.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y831)
= Exp(a + b × X831 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,209 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0400 + -0.0014 × 1,209 – 2 × 0.1448)
= Exp(6.1104)
= $450.53
March 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0400 + -0.0014 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1448)
= Exp(5.8540)
= $348.62
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.0400 + -0.0014 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1448)
= Exp(5.2748)
= $195.36
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 39.05% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of March 24, 2026 was $272.28 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2025
End date: March 24, 2026
a = 5.4954
b = 0.0001
s = 0.0967
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0001) – 1
= 5.19%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0967) – 1
= 47.20%
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4954 + 0.0001 × 1,510 + 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(5.8979)
= $364.27
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,038)
= Exp(a + b × X1,038 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,510 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4954 + 0.0001 × 1,510 – 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(5.5113)
= $247.47
March 24, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4954 + 0.0001 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(5.9415)
= $380.52
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4954 + 0.0001 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0967)
= Exp(5.5549)
= $258.50
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.19% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of March 24, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
Check out UNH and 1,499 other stocks on our new website