Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $331.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.46% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: July 16, 2024
End date: December 31, 2025
a = 8.3497
b = -0.0015
s = 0.1480
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0015) – 1
= -42.22%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1480) – 1
= 80.79%
July 16, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3497 + -0.0015 × 1,274 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(6.7310)
= $838.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y877)
= Exp(a + b × X877 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3497 + -0.0015 × 1,274 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(6.1389)
= $463.53
December 31, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3497 + -0.0015 × 1,807 + 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.9299)
= $376.13
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,244)
= Exp(a + b × X1,244 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,807 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.3497 + -0.0015 × 1,807 – 2 × 0.1480)
= Exp(5.3378)
= $208.05
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 42.22% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of January 16, 2026 was $331.02 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2025
End date: January 16, 2026
a = 4.3717
b = 0.0008
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0008) – 1
= 34.46%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.64%
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3717 + 0.0008 × 1,575 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.8054)
= $332.09
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,084)
= Exp(a + b × X1,084 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,575 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3717 + 0.0008 × 1,575 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.4932)
= $243.04
January 16, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3717 + 0.0008 × 1,823 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(6.0066)
= $406.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,823 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.3717 + 0.0008 × 1,823 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(5.6944)
= $297.20
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 34.46% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of January 16, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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