Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.99% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $394.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.35 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.37% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.97 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of UNH price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 8, 2026
End date: October 13, 2026
a = 6.3406
b = -0.0010
s = 0.0275
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0010) – 1
= -29.99%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0275) – 1
= 11.62%
June 8, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3406 + -0.0010 × 297 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(6.1054)
= $448.28
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y203)
= Exp(a + b × X203 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 297 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3406 + -0.0010 × 297 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.9955)
= $401.60
October 13, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3406 + -0.0010 × 424 + 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.9813)
= $395.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y291)
= Exp(a + b × X291 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 424 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.3406 + -0.0010 × 424 – 2 × 0.0275)
= Exp(5.8714)
= $354.75
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 29.99% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 6, 2026 was $394.15 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $7.35 (1.90%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 15, 2026
End date: November 4, 2026
a = 4.9064
b = 0.0025
s = 0.0268
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0025) – 1
= 150.37%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0268) – 1
= 11.33%
September 15, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9064 + 0.0025 × 396 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.9558)
= $385.97
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y271)
= Exp(a + b × X271 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 396 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9064 + 0.0025 × 396 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.8484)
= $346.70
November 4, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9064 + 0.0025 × 446 + 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(6.0815)
= $437.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y307)
= Exp(a + b × X307 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.9064 + 0.0025 × 446 – 2 × 0.0268)
= Exp(5.9742)
= $393.14
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 150.37% per annum.
- UNH price at the close of November 6, 2026 was lower than the bottom border of the secondary price channel by $0.97 (0.25%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.