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Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc

UnitedHealth Group Inc. (UNH)


Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Difficulty: Intermediate

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

UnitedHealth Group Inc., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at hidden
01 FCFF0 hidden
1 FCFF1 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
2 FCFF2 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
3 FCFF3 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
4 FCFF4 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 FCFF5 hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) hidden
5 Terminal value (TV5) hidden = hidden × (1 + hidden) ÷ (hiddenhidden) hidden
Intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s capital hidden
Less: Commercial paper, long-term debt and other financing obligations (fair value) hidden
Intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s common stock hidden
 
Intrinsic value of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s common stock (per share) $hidden
Current share price $hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-12).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.


Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

UnitedHealth Group Inc., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) hidden hidden hidden
Commercial paper, long-term debt and other financing obligations (fair value) hidden hidden hidden = hidden × (1 – hidden)

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-12).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= hidden × $hidden = $hidden

   Commercial paper, long-term debt and other financing obligations (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (hidden + hidden + hidden + hidden + hidden) ÷ 5 = hidden

WACC = hidden


FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

UnitedHealth Group Inc., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Net earnings attributable to UnitedHealth Group common shareholders hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
 
Interest expense, after tax2 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Add: Cash dividends paid on common shares hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
 
Commercial paper and current maturities of long-term debt hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Long-term debt, less current maturities hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Shareholders’ equity hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Total capital hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 hidden hidden hidden hidden hidden
Averages
RR hidden
ROIC hidden
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 hidden

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-12), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-13), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-08), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-09), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-10).

1 See details »

2018 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= hidden × (1 – hidden) = hidden

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net earnings attributable to UnitedHealth Group common shareholders + Interest expense, after tax
= hidden + hidden = hidden

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [hiddenhidden] ÷ hidden = hidden

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × hidden ÷ hidden = hidden

6 g = RR × ROIC
= hidden × hidden = hidden


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (hidden × hiddenhidden) ÷ (hidden + hidden) = hidden

where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of UnitedHealth Group Inc.’s capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

UnitedHealth Group Inc., H-model

Microsoft Excel LibreOffice Calc
Year Value gt
1 g1 hidden
2 g2 hidden
3 g3 hidden
4 g4 hidden
5 and thereafter g5 hidden

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= hidden + (hiddenhidden) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) = hidden