Abbott Laboratories (NYSE:ABT)

Dividend Discount Model (DDM)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Dividends are the cleanest and most straightforward measure of cash flow because these are clearly cash flows that go directly to the investor.

Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Abbott Laboratories, dividends per share (DPS) forecast

US\$

Year Value DPSt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 9.49%
0 DPS01 1.44
1 DPS1 1.39 = 1.44 × (1 + -3.75%) 1.27
2 DPS2 1.38 = 1.39 × (1 + -0.77%) 1.15
3 DPS3 1.41 = 1.38 × (1 + 2.20%) 1.07
4 DPS4 1.48 = 1.41 × (1 + 5.18%) 1.03
5 DPS5 1.60 = 1.48 × (1 + 8.16%) 1.02
5 Terminal value (TV5) 129.64 = 1.60 × (1 + 8.16%) ÷ (9.49%8.16%) 82.38
Intrinsic value of Abbott Laboratories’s common stock (per share) \$87.91
Current share price \$116.74

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2021-02-19).

1 DPS0 = Sum of the last year dividends per share of Abbott Laboratories’s common stock. See details »

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

Required Rate of Return (r)

 Assumptions Rate of return on LT Treasury Composite1 RF 2.26% Expected rate of return on market portfolio2 E(RM) 11.74% Systematic risk of Abbott Laboratories’s common stock βABT 0.76 Required rate of return on Abbott Laboratories’s common stock3 rABT 9.49%

1 Unweighted average of bid yields on all outstanding fixed-coupon U.S. Treasury bonds neither due or callable in less than 10 years (risk-free rate of return proxy).

3 rABT = RF + βABT [E(RM) – RF]
= 2.26% + 0.76 [11.74%2.26%]
= 9.49%

Dividend Growth Rate (g)

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Abbott Laboratories, PRAT model

Average Dec 31, 2020 Dec 31, 2019 Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016
Selected Financial Data (US\$ in millions)
Cash dividends declared on common shares 2,722  2,343  2,047  1,947  1,547
Net earnings 4,495  3,687  2,368  477  1,400
Net sales 34,608  31,904  30,578  27,390  20,853
Total assets 72,548  67,887  67,173  76,250  52,666
Total Abbott shareholders’ investment 32,784  31,088  30,524  30,897  20,538
Financial Ratios
Retention rate1 0.39 0.36 0.14 -3.08 -0.11
Profit margin2 12.99% 11.56% 7.74% 1.74% 6.71%
Asset turnover3 0.48 0.47 0.46 0.36 0.40
Financial leverage4 2.21 2.18 2.20 2.47 2.56
Averages
Retention rate -0.46
Profit margin 8.15%
Asset turnover 0.43
Financial leverage 2.33

Dividend growth rate (g)5 -3.75%

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2021-02-19), 10-K (filing date: 2020-02-21), 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-22), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-16), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-17).

2020 Calculations

1 Retention rate = (Net earnings – Cash dividends declared on common shares) ÷ Net earnings
= (4,4952,722) ÷ 4,495
= 0.39

2 Profit margin = 100 × Net earnings ÷ Net sales
= 100 × 4,495 ÷ 34,608
= 12.99%

3 Asset turnover = Net sales ÷ Total assets
= 34,608 ÷ 72,548
= 0.48

4 Financial leverage = Total assets ÷ Total Abbott shareholders’ investment
= 72,548 ÷ 32,784
= 2.21

5 g = Retention rate × Profit margin × Asset turnover × Financial leverage
= -0.46 × 8.15% × 0.43 × 2.33
= -3.75%

Dividend growth rate (g) implied by Gordon growth model

g = 100 × (P0 × rD0) ÷ (P0 + D0)
= 100 × (\$116.74 × 9.49%\$1.44) ÷ (\$116.74 + \$1.44)
= 8.16%

where:
P0 = current price of share of Abbott Laboratories’s common stock
D0 = the last year dividends per share of Abbott Laboratories’s common stock
r = required rate of return on Abbott Laboratories’s common stock

Dividend growth rate (g) forecast

Abbott Laboratories, H-model

Year Value gt
1 g1 -3.75%
2 g2 -0.77%
3 g3 2.20%
4 g4 5.18%
5 and thereafter g5 8.16%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by Gordon growth model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -3.75% + (8.16%-3.75%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -0.77%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -3.75% + (8.16%-3.75%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 2.20%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= -3.75% + (8.16%-3.75%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.18%