Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.70% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of August 6, 2025 was $42.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of August 6, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of OXY price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2022
End date: August 6, 2025
a = 4.4098
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0889
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -10.70%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0889) – 1
= 42.68%
May 13, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4098 + -0.0003 × 644 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(4.3877)
= $80.46
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y445)
= Exp(a + b × X445 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 644 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4098 + -0.0003 × 644 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(4.0323)
= $56.39
August 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4098 + -0.0003 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(4.0214)
= $55.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4098 + -0.0003 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0889)
= Exp(3.6659)
= $39.09
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 10.70% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of August 6, 2025 was $42.54 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: March 13, 2024
End date: August 6, 2025
a = 5.4095
b = -0.0009
s = 0.0572
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0009) – 1
= -29.10%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0572) – 1
= 25.72%
March 13, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4095 + -0.0009 × 1,314 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.2860)
= $72.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y904)
= Exp(a + b × X904 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,314 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4095 + -0.0009 × 1,314 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(4.0572)
= $57.81
August 6, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4095 + -0.0009 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(3.8046)
= $44.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,254)
= Exp(a + b × X1,254 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.4095 + -0.0009 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0572)
= Exp(3.5758)
= $35.72
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 29.10% per annum.
- OXY price at the close of August 6, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.