Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.95% per annum.
- CL price at the close of July 28, 2023 was $75.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.93% per annum.
- CL price at the close of July 28, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of CL price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: October 8, 2020
End date: July 28, 2023
a = 4.4688
b = -0.0001
s = 0.0382
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0001) – 1
= -2.95%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0382) – 1
= 16.50%
October 8, 2020 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4688 + -0.0001 × 801 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.4793)
= $88.17
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y553)
= Exp(a + b × X553 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 801 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4688 + -0.0001 × 801 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.3266)
= $75.69
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4688 + -0.0001 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.3953)
= $81.07
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.4688 + -0.0001 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0382)
= Exp(4.2425)
= $69.58
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 2.95% per annum.
- CL price at the close of July 28, 2023 was $75.62 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: September 20, 2022
End date: July 28, 2023
a = 4.0613
b = 0.0002
s = 0.0337
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0002) – 1
= 5.93%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0337) – 1
= 14.41%
September 20, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + 0.0002 × 1,513 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.3674)
= $78.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,043)
= Exp(a + b × X1,043 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,513 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + 0.0002 × 1,513 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.2327)
= $68.90
July 28, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + 0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.4165)
= $82.80
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,257)
= Exp(a + b × X1,257 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.0613 + 0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0337)
= Exp(4.2818)
= $72.37
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 5.93% per annum.
- CL price at the close of July 28, 2023 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current CL price trends.
Visit our new 1,500-company website