Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.89% per annum.
- PG price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $148.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.68% per annum.
- PG price at the close of October 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.07 (1.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of PG price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: March 18, 2026
End date: July 29, 2026
a = 4.8483
b = 0.0004
s = 0.0172
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0004) – 1
= 14.89%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0172) – 1
= 7.13%
March 18, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 266 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8483 + 0.0004 × 266 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.9839)
= $146.04
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y183)
= Exp(a + b × X183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 266 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8483 + 0.0004 × 266 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.9150)
= $136.32
July 29, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 + 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8483 + 0.0004 × 399 + 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(5.0344)
= $153.61
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y274)
= Exp(a + b × X274 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 399 – 2 × s)
= Exp(4.8483 + 0.0004 × 399 – 2 × 0.0172)
= Exp(4.9656)
= $143.39
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 14.89% per annum.
- PG price at the close of October 6, 2026 was $148.41 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: June 9, 2026
End date: September 14, 2026
a = 5.1228
b = -0.0003
s = 0.0111
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0003) – 1
= -11.68%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0111) – 1
= 4.56%
June 9, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1228 + -0.0003 × 349 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(5.0264)
= $152.38
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y240)
= Exp(a + b × X240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 349 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1228 + -0.0003 × 349 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.9818)
= $145.74
September 14, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1228 + -0.0003 × 446 + 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.9934)
= $147.44
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y306)
= Exp(a + b × X306 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 446 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.1228 + -0.0003 × 446 – 2 × 0.0111)
= Exp(4.9488)
= $141.01
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 11.68% per annum.
- PG price at the close of October 6, 2026 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $2.07 (1.42%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.