Stock Analysis on Net

Procter & Gamble Co. (NYSE:PG)

Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Microsoft Excel

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.


Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Procter & Gamble Co., free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US$ in millions, except per share data

Microsoft Excel
Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at 9.52%
01 FCFF0 14,758
1 FCFF1 15,824 = 14,758 × (1 + 7.22%) 14,449
2 FCFF2 16,897 = 15,824 × (1 + 6.79%) 14,089
3 FCFF3 17,971 = 16,897 × (1 + 6.35%) 13,682
4 FCFF4 19,034 = 17,971 × (1 + 5.92%) 13,232
5 FCFF5 20,078 = 19,034 × (1 + 5.48%) 12,745
5 Terminal value (TV5) 525,434 = 20,078 × (1 + 5.48%) ÷ (9.52%5.48%) 333,533
Intrinsic value of Procter & Gamble Co. capital 401,729
Less: Short-term and long-term debt (fair value) 33,635
Intrinsic value of Procter & Gamble Co. common stock 368,094
 
Intrinsic value of Procter & Gamble Co. common stock (per share) $158.08
Current share price $151.41

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-06-30).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.



Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Procter & Gamble Co., cost of capital

Microsoft Excel
Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value) 352,573 0.91 10.17%
Short-term and long-term debt (fair value) 33,635 0.09 2.61% = 3.22% × (1 – 18.95%)

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-06-30).

1 US$ in millions

   Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= 2,328,598,978 × $151.41
= $352,573,171,258.98

   Short-term and long-term debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt. See details »

   Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

   Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= (20.30% + 20.20% + 19.70% + 17.80% + 18.50% + 17.20%) ÷ 6
= 18.95%

WACC = 9.52%



FCFF Growth Rate (g)

FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Procter & Gamble Co., PRAT model

Microsoft Excel
Average Jun 30, 2025 Jun 30, 2024 Jun 30, 2023 Jun 30, 2022 Jun 30, 2021 Jun 30, 2020
Selected Financial Data (US$ in millions)
Interest expense 907 925 756 439 502 465
Net earnings attributable to Procter & Gamble (P&G) 15,974 14,879 14,653 14,742 14,306 13,027
 
Effective income tax rate (EITR)1 20.30% 20.20% 19.70% 17.80% 18.50% 17.20%
 
Interest expense, after tax2 723 738 607 361 409 385
Add: Dividends and dividend equivalents, preferred 291 284 282 281 271 263
Add: Dividends and dividend equivalents, common 9,606 9,053 8,742 8,514 8,020 7,551
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends 10,620 10,075 9,631 9,156 8,700 8,199
 
EBIT(1 – EITR)3 16,697 15,617 15,260 15,103 14,715 13,412
 
Debt due within one year 9,513 7,191 10,229 8,645 8,889 11,183
Long-term debt, excluding due within one year 24,995 25,269 24,378 22,848 23,099 23,537
Shareholders’ equity attributable to Procter & Gamble 52,012 50,287 46,777 46,589 46,378 46,521
Total capital 86,520 82,747 81,384 78,082 78,366 81,241
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4 0.36 0.35 0.37 0.39 0.41 0.39
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5 19.30% 18.87% 18.75% 19.34% 18.78% 16.51%
Averages
RR 0.38
ROIC 19.01%
 
FCFF growth rate (g)6 7.22%

Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2025-06-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2024-06-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2023-06-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2022-06-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2021-06-30), 10-K (reporting date: 2020-06-30).

1 See details »

2025 Calculations

2 Interest expense, after tax = Interest expense × (1 – EITR)
= 907 × (1 – 20.30%)
= 723

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net earnings attributable to Procter & Gamble (P&G) + Interest expense, after tax
= 15,974 + 723
= 16,697

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [16,69710,620] ÷ 16,697
= 0.36

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × 16,697 ÷ 86,520
= 19.30%

6 g = RR × ROIC
= 0.38 × 19.01%
= 7.22%


FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × (386,208 × 9.52%14,758) ÷ (386,208 + 14,758)
= 5.48%

where:

Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Procter & Gamble Co. debt and equity (US$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Procter & Gamble Co. free cash flow to the firm (US$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Procter & Gamble Co. capital


FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Procter & Gamble Co., H-model

Microsoft Excel
Year Value gt
1 g1 7.22%
2 g2 6.79%
3 g3 6.35%
4 g4 5.92%
5 and thereafter g5 5.48%

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpolation between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 7.22% + (5.48%7.22%) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 6.79%

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 7.22% + (5.48%7.22%) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 6.35%

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 7.22% + (5.48%7.22%) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= 5.92%