Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.43% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of October 25, 2022 was $273.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $145.76 (114.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.64% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of October 25, 2022 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $57.07 (26.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of BIIB price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: June 7, 2021
End date: March 21, 2022
a = 9.0366
b = -0.0023
s = 0.0419
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0023) – 1
= -57.43%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0419) – 1
= 18.23%
June 7, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0366 + -0.0023 × 1,320 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(6.0320)
= $416.55
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y907)
= Exp(a + b × X907 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,320 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0366 + -0.0023 × 1,320 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.8646)
= $352.33
March 21, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0366 + -0.0023 × 1,607 + 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.3605)
= $212.84
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,106)
= Exp(a + b × X1,106 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,607 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.0366 + -0.0023 × 1,607 – 2 × 0.0419)
= Exp(5.1931)
= $180.02
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 57.43% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of October 25, 2022 was $273.56 and was higher than the top border of the primary price channel by $145.76 (114.05%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: November 26, 2021
End date: September 27, 2022
a = 6.0744
b = -0.0004
s = 0.0472
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0004) – 1
= -14.64%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0472) – 1
= 20.78%
November 26, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0004 × 1,492 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.5219)
= $250.12
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,028)
= Exp(a + b × X1,028 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,492 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0004 × 1,492 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.3331)
= $207.09
September 27, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 + 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0004 × 1,797 + 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.3897)
= $219.14
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,237)
= Exp(a + b × X1,237 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,797 – 2 × s)
= Exp(6.0744 + -0.0004 × 1,797 – 2 × 0.0472)
= Exp(5.2009)
= $181.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 14.64% per annum.
- BIIB price at the close of October 25, 2022 was higher than the top border of the secondary price channel by $57.07 (26.36%). This indicates a possible reversal in the secondary trend direction.
Check current BIIB price trends.
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