Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.12% per annum.
- SYK price at the close of April 29, 2022 was $241.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.24 (1.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.45% per annum.
- SYK price at the close of April 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of SYK price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 9, 2021
End date: April 29, 2022
a = 5.5602
b = 0.0000
s = 0.0335
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0000) – 1
= 0.12%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0335) – 1
= 14.33%
April 9, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y992)
= Exp(a + b × X992 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5602 + 0.0000 × 1,439 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.6319)
= $279.19
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y992)
= Exp(a + b × X992 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,439 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5602 + 0.0000 × 1,439 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.4979)
= $244.19
April 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5602 + 0.0000 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.6331)
= $279.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5602 + 0.0000 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0335)
= Exp(5.4992)
= $244.50
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 0.12% per annum.
- SYK price at the close of April 29, 2022 was $241.26 and was lower than the bottom border of the primary price channel by $3.24 (1.32%). This indicates a possible reversal in the primary trend direction.
Secondary Trend
Start date: August 20, 2021
End date: April 29, 2022
a = 5.9311
b = -0.0002
s = 0.0338
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0002) – 1
= -7.45%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0338) – 1
= 14.48%
August 20, 2021 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9311 + -0.0002 × 1,572 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.6652)
= $288.63
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,085)
= Exp(a + b × X1,085 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,572 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9311 + -0.0002 × 1,572 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.5299)
= $252.12
April 29, 2022 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9311 + -0.0002 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.6117)
= $273.60
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,259)
= Exp(a + b × X1,259 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.9311 + -0.0002 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0338)
= Exp(5.4764)
= $239.00
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 7.45% per annum.
- SYK price at the close of April 29, 2022 was inside the secondary price channel.
Check current SYK price trends.
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