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# Phillips 66 (PSX)

## Present Value of Free Cash Flow to the Firm (FCFF)

Intermediate level

In discounted cash flow (DCF) valuation techniques the value of the stock is estimated based upon present value of some measure of cash flow. Free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) is generally described as cash flows after direct costs and before any payments to capital suppliers.

### Intrinsic Stock Value (Valuation Summary)

Phillips 66, free cash flow to the firm (FCFF) forecast

US\$ in millions, except per share data

Year Value FCFFt or Terminal value (TVt) Calculation Present value at
01 FCFF0
1 FCFF1 = × (1 + )
2 FCFF2 = × (1 + )
3 FCFF3 = × (1 + )
4 FCFF4 = × (1 + )
5 FCFF5 = × (1 + )
5 Terminal value (TV5) = × (1 + ) ÷ ()
Intrinsic value of Phillips 66’s capital
Less: Total debt (fair value)
Intrinsic value of Phillips 66’s common stock

Intrinsic value of Phillips 66’s common stock (per share) \$
Current share price \$

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-22).

Disclaimer!
Valuation is based on standard assumptions. There may exist specific factors relevant to stock value and omitted here. In such a case, the real stock value may differ significantly form the estimated. If you want to use the estimated intrinsic stock value in investment decision making process, do so at your own risk.

### Weighted Average Cost of Capital (WACC)

Phillips 66, cost of capital

Value1 Weight Required rate of return2 Calculation
Equity (fair value)
Total debt (fair value) = × (1 – )

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-22).

1 US\$ in millions

Equity (fair value) = No. shares of common stock outstanding × Current share price
= × \$ = \$

Total debt (fair value). See details »

2 Required rate of return on equity is estimated by using CAPM. See details »

Required rate of return on debt. See details »

Required rate of return on debt is after tax.

Estimated (average) effective income tax rate
= ( + + + + ) ÷ 5 =

WACC =

### FCFF Growth Rate (g)

#### FCFF growth rate (g) implied by PRAT model

Phillips 66, PRAT model

Average Dec 31, 2018 Dec 31, 2017 Dec 31, 2016 Dec 31, 2015 Dec 31, 2014
Selected Financial Data (US\$ in millions)
Interest and debt expense
Income from discontinued operations, net of provision for income taxes
Net income attributable to Phillips 66

Effective income tax rate (EITR)1

Interest and debt expense, after tax2
Add: Dividends paid on common stock
Interest expense (after tax) and dividends

EBIT(1 – EITR)3

Short-term debt
Long-term debt
Stockholders’ equity
Total capital
Financial Ratios
Retention rate (RR)4
Return on invested capital (ROIC)5
Averages
RR
ROIC

FCFF growth rate (g)6

Based on: 10-K (filing date: 2019-02-22), 10-K (filing date: 2018-02-23), 10-K (filing date: 2017-02-17), 10-K (filing date: 2016-02-19), 10-K (filing date: 2015-02-20).

2018 Calculations

2 Interest and debt expense, after tax = Interest and debt expense × (1 – EITR)
= × (1 – ) =

3 EBIT(1 – EITR) = Net income attributable to Phillips 66 – Income from discontinued operations, net of provision for income taxes + Interest and debt expense, after tax
= + =

4 RR = [EBIT(1 – EITR) – Interest expense (after tax) and dividends] ÷ EBIT(1 – EITR)
= [] ÷ =

5 ROIC = 100 × EBIT(1 – EITR) ÷ Total capital
= 100 × ÷ =

6 g = RR × ROIC
= × =

#### FCFF growth rate (g) implied by single-stage model

g = 100 × (Total capital, fair value0 × WACC – FCFF0) ÷ (Total capital, fair value0 + FCFF0)
= 100 × ( × ) ÷ ( + ) =

where:
Total capital, fair value0 = current fair value of Phillips 66’s debt and equity (US\$ in millions)
FCFF0 = the last year Phillips 66’s free cash flow to the firm (US\$ in millions)
WACC = weighted average cost of Phillips 66’s capital

#### FCFF growth rate (g) forecast

Phillips 66, H-model

Year Value gt
1 g1
2 g2
3 g3
4 g4
5 and thereafter g5

where:
g1 is implied by PRAT model
g5 is implied by single-stage model
g2, g3 and g4 are calculated using linear interpoltion between g1 and g5

Calculations

g2 = g1 + (g5g1) × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (2 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g3 = g1 + (g5g1) × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (3 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =

g4 = g1 + (g5g1) × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1)
= + () × (4 – 1) ÷ (5 – 1) =