Price to FCFE (P/FCFE)
Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
Phillips 66, FCFE calculation
US$ in millions
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31).
- Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities
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The net cash provided by operating activities experienced significant fluctuations over the observed period. Initially, there was a notable decline from US$5,713 million in 2015 to US$2,963 million in 2016, representing a decrease of nearly 48%. This was followed by a moderate recovery in 2017, with a value of US$3,648 million. A substantial increase occurred in 2018, reaching US$7,573 million, which is the highest in the five-year span. However, this peak was not sustained, as the figure decreased to US$4,808 million in 2019. Overall, the trend indicates volatility with a pronounced peak in 2018.
- Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE)
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The FCFE shows an overall positive trend despite some variability. Starting at US$192 million in 2015, there was a significant rise to US$1,376 million in 2016 and a further increase to US$1,646 million in 2017. A remarkable surge occurred in 2018, with FCFE reaching US$5,974 million, indicating strong cash flow available to equity holders. In 2019, the FCFE decreased substantially to US$1,411 million but remained well above the levels recorded in 2015 and 2016. This pattern reflects strong growth in shareholder cash flows, particularly highlighted by a peak in 2018, albeit with high volatility.
- Comparative Insights
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Both metrics depict a similar pattern of volatility with significant peaks in 2018. The net cash provided by operating activities and FCFE appear correlated in terms of directional movement, with both metrics peaking sharply in 2018 before declining in 2019. This suggests that the company's operational cash generation and the cash available to equity holders experienced strong growth followed by a contraction. The variability may indicate exposure to external factors impacting cash flow stability or internal changes in operational efficiency and capital allocation.
Price to FCFE Ratio, Current
Phillips 66, current P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| No. shares of common stock outstanding | 439,445,842 |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | |
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions) | 1,411) |
| FCFE per share | 3.21 |
| Current share price (P) | 89.25 |
| Valuation Ratio | |
| P/FCFE | 27.80 |
| Benchmarks | |
| P/FCFE, Competitors1 | |
| Chevron Corp. | 13.66 |
| ConocoPhillips | 13.48 |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | 18.32 |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp. | 4.30 |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31).
1 Click competitor name to see calculations.
If the company P/FCFE is lower then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively undervalued.
Otherwise, if the company P/FCFE is higher then the P/FCFE of benchmark then company is relatively overvalued.
Price to FCFE Ratio, Historical
Phillips 66, historical P/FCFE calculation, comparison to benchmarks
| Dec 31, 2019 | Dec 31, 2018 | Dec 31, 2017 | Dec 31, 2016 | Dec 31, 2015 | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| No. shares of common stock outstanding1 | 439,445,842 | 454,913,087 | 501,237,339 | 517,816,429 | 527,459,894 | |
| Selected Financial Data (US$) | ||||||
| Free cash flow to equity (FCFE) (in millions)2 | 1,411) | 5,974) | 1,646) | 1,376) | 192) | |
| FCFE per share3 | 3.21 | 13.13 | 3.28 | 2.66 | 0.36 | |
| Share price1, 4 | 89.25 | 97.36 | 91.83 | 78.66 | 80.09 | |
| Valuation Ratio | ||||||
| P/FCFE5 | 27.80 | 7.41 | 27.96 | 29.60 | 220.02 | |
| Benchmarks | ||||||
| P/FCFE, Competitors6 | ||||||
| Chevron Corp. | — | — | — | — | — | |
| ConocoPhillips | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Exxon Mobil Corp. | — | — | — | — | — | |
| Occidental Petroleum Corp. | — | — | — | — | — | |
Based on: 10-K (reporting date: 2019-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2018-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2017-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2016-12-31), 10-K (reporting date: 2015-12-31).
1 Data adjusted for splits and stock dividends.
3 2019 Calculation
FCFE per share = FCFE ÷ No. shares of common stock outstanding
= 1,411,000,000 ÷ 439,445,842 = 3.21
4 Closing price as at the filing date of Phillips 66 Annual Report.
5 2019 Calculation
P/FCFE = Share price ÷ FCFE per share
= 89.25 ÷ 3.21 = 27.80
6 Click competitor name to see calculations.
- Share Price
- The share price exhibited fluctuations over the five-year period. Starting at $80.09 in 2015, it slightly decreased to $78.66 in 2016. It then increased steadily to $91.83 in 2017 and further to a peak of $97.36 in 2018. However, the price declined to $89.25 in 2019, indicating some volatility but generally maintaining a higher level compared to the initial year.
- Free Cash Flow to Equity (FCFE) per Share
- The FCFE per share showed significant variability during the period. Beginning at a modest $0.36 in 2015, it surged dramatically to $2.66 in 2016 and continued to grow to $3.28 in 2017. There was an exceptional increase to $13.13 in 2018, followed by a sharp decline to $3.21 in 2019. This pattern suggests a substantial improvement in cash flow generation during 2018, which was not sustained in the subsequent year.
- Price to FCFE Ratio (P/FCFE)
- The P/FCFE ratio decreased notably from an extremely high 220.02 in 2015 to more moderate levels in later years. It fell to 29.6 in 2016 and then to 27.96 in 2017, indicating a reduction in valuation per unit of FCFE. The ratio dropped further to 7.41 in 2018, reflecting the pronounced increase in FCFE per share during that year. In 2019, the ratio rose again to 27.8, corresponding with the decline in FCFE per share. Overall, the ratio's movement largely reflects changes in FCFE relative to the share price.