Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.11% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of July 18, 2025 was $72.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 178.51% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of July 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of NKE price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: January 4, 2023
End date: June 26, 2025
a = 5.5099
b = -0.0008
s = 0.0780
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0008) – 1
= -24.11%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0780) – 1
= 36.60%
January 4, 2023 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5099 + -0.0008 × 898 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.9872)
= $146.53
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y620)
= Exp(a + b × X620 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 898 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5099 + -0.0008 × 898 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.6754)
= $107.27
June 26, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 + 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5099 + -0.0008 × 1,802 + 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(4.3041)
= $74.00
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,802 – 2 × s)
= Exp(5.5099 + -0.0008 × 1,802 – 2 × 0.0780)
= Exp(3.9922)
= $54.18
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 24.11% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of July 18, 2025 was $72.47 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: April 3, 2025
End date: July 18, 2025
a = -0.8463
b = 0.0028
s = 0.0475
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0028) – 1
= 178.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0475) – 1
= 20.90%
April 3, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8463 + 0.0028 × 1,718 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.0697)
= $58.54
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,183)
= Exp(a + b × X1,183 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,718 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8463 + 0.0028 × 1,718 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(3.8799)
= $48.42
July 18, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8463 + 0.0028 × 1,824 + 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.3672)
= $78.82
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,824 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-0.8463 + 0.0028 × 1,824 – 2 × 0.0475)
= Exp(4.1774)
= $65.19
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 178.51% per annum.
- NKE price at the close of July 18, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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