Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.75% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 27, 2026 was $104.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.05% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: October 27, 2026
a = 8.2085
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1187
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.75%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1187) – 1
= 60.76%
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2085 + -0.0020 × 1,131 + 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(6.1876)
= $486.68
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y777)
= Exp(a + b × X777 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,131 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2085 + -0.0020 × 1,131 – 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(5.7129)
= $302.75
October 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(4.8019)
= $121.75
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.2085 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1187)
= Exp(4.3272)
= $75.73
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.75% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 27, 2026 was $104.59 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: December 12, 2025
End date: October 27, 2026
a = 9.2301
b = -0.0026
s = 0.0705
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0026) – 1
= -61.05%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0705) – 1
= 32.60%
December 12, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2301 + -0.0026 × 1,506 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(5.4811)
= $240.10
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,035)
= Exp(a + b × X1,035 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,506 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2301 + -0.0026 × 1,506 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(5.1989)
= $181.08
October 27, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2301 + -0.0026 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.6571)
= $105.33
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(9.2301 + -0.0026 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0705)
= Exp(4.3749)
= $79.43
Description
- The secondary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the secondary trend is 61.05% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of October 27, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.