Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.31% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 10, 2026 was $110.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 783.73% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.
- The direction of the secondary trend is opposite to the direction of the primary trend. This indicates a possible reversal in the direction of the primary trend.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: December 2, 2024
End date: November 10, 2026
a = 8.1472
b = -0.0020
s = 0.1192
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × -0.0020) – 1
= -51.31%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.1192) – 1
= 61.10%
December 2, 2024 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y767)
= Exp(a + b × X767 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,117 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1472 + -0.0020 × 1,117 + 2 × 0.1192)
= Exp(6.1829)
= $484.40
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y767)
= Exp(a + b × X767 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,117 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1472 + -0.0020 × 1,117 – 2 × 0.1192)
= Exp(5.7061)
= $300.68
November 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1472 + -0.0020 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.1192)
= Exp(4.7867)
= $119.91
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(8.1472 + -0.0020 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.1192)
= Exp(4.3099)
= $74.43
Description
- The primary trend is decreasing.
- The decline rate of the primary trend is 51.31% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 10, 2026 was $110.37 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: October 5, 2026
End date: November 10, 2026
a = -6.1649
b = 0.0060
s = 0.0193
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0060) – 1
= 783.73%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0193) – 1
= 8.04%
October 5, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1649 + 0.0060 × 1,789 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.5537)
= $94.99
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,227)
= Exp(a + b × X1,227 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,789 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1649 + 0.0060 × 1,789 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.4764)
= $87.92
November 10, 2026 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1649 + 0.0060 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.7686)
= $117.76
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,253)
= Exp(a + b × X1,253 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-6.1649 + 0.0060 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0193)
= Exp(4.6913)
= $109.00
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 783.73% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of November 10, 2026 was inside the secondary price channel.