Stock Price Trends
Stock price trends estimated using linear regression.
Summary
Key facts
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 676.51% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 4, 2025 was $335.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.87% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
Linear Regression Model
Model equation:
Yi = α + β × Xi + εi
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi + 2 × s)
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Yi) = Exp(a + b × Xi – 2 × s)
where:
i - observation number
Yi - natural logarithm of LULU price
Xi - time index, 1 day interval
σ - standard deviation of εi
a - estimator of α
b - estimator of β
s - estimator of σ
Exp() - calculates the exponent of e
Primary Trend
Start date: April 10, 2025
End date: June 4, 2025
a = -4.4287
b = 0.0056
s = 0.0332
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0056) – 1
= 676.51%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0332) – 1
= 14.18%
April 10, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4287 + 0.0056 × 1,770 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.5769)
= $264.26
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,218)
= Exp(a + b × X1,218 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,770 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4287 + 0.0056 × 1,770 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.4443)
= $231.43
June 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4287 + 0.0056 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.8858)
= $359.88
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(-4.4287 + 0.0056 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0332)
= Exp(5.7531)
= $315.18
Description
- The primary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the primary trend is 676.51% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 4, 2025 was $335.19 and was inside the primary price channel.
Secondary Trend
Start date: May 13, 2025
End date: June 4, 2025
a = 2.9366
b = 0.0016
s = 0.0195
Annual growth rate:
Exp(365 × b) – 1
= Exp(365 × 0.0016) – 1
= 76.87%
Price channel spread:
Exp(4 × s) – 1
= Exp(4 × 0.0195) – 1
= 8.10%
May 13, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9366 + 0.0016 × 1,803 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.7923)
= $327.78
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,240)
= Exp(a + b × X1,240 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,803 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9366 + 0.0016 × 1,803 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.7145)
= $303.22
June 4, 2025 calculations
Top border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 + 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 + 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9366 + 0.0016 × 1,825 + 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.8267)
= $339.24
Bottom border of price channel:
Exp(Y1,255)
= Exp(a + b × X1,255 – 2 × s)
= Exp(a + b × 1,825 – 2 × s)
= Exp(2.9366 + 0.0016 × 1,825 – 2 × 0.0195)
= Exp(5.7488)
= $313.83
Description
- The secondary trend is increasing.
- The growth rate of the secondary trend is 76.87% per annum.
- LULU price at the close of June 4, 2025 was inside the secondary price channel.
- Discover a new approach to trend analysis.
- Check the power of mathematical statistics.
- Price channels have never been so accurately estimated.
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